Mesoscale Discussion 211

Issued

Mar 14, 2016, 12:38 PM EDT (16:38 UTC)

Expired

Mar 14, 2016, 2:15 PM EDT

In force

97 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

40%

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

830 
ACUS11 KWNS 141639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141638 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-141815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 141638Z - 141815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING THROUGH THE MORNING AND MODEST INCREASES
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE LED TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
NORTHERN GA...FAR EASTERN TN INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN VA/NC AND
NORTHERN SC. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TN AS DEEP FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. A RESIDUAL EML WAS NOTED ON 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS...WITH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C/KM PRESENT ABOVE THE EML. WITH
CONTINUED HEATING...WEAK INHIBITION WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MCD AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 35-40 KT COUPLED WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED CELLS
AND CLUSTERS WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
FAIRLY WEAK...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 DEG C/KM AND
SFC-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 35 KT COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONGER GUSTS. THE
NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. 

FARTHER EAST...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF
NC/SC. AN MCD WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS
THAT AREA TO ADDRESS EVOLVING SEVERE THREAT.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 03/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...

LAT...LON   36098090 35498139 34878204 34318270 34108321 33988433
            34078484 34268512 34548523 34848520 35238499 35758469
            36178428 36568375 36838335 37018275 37138176 37058106
            36678084 36098090

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.