Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 43

March 13, 201645 counties in Arkansas; 22 counties in Mississippi; 5 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 13, 2016, 7:11 PM CDT for 45 counties in Arkansas; 22 counties in Mississippi; 5 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 13, 2016, 7:11 PM CDT (00:11 UTC)
Expired
Mar 14, 2016, 1:37 AM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 72 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Ashley County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Independence County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Pike County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Union County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Panola County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Washington County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Yazoo County, MS, Fayette County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

57 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 13, 7:12 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKBradley, Calhoun, Cleveland48 min
Mar 13, 7:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleburne, Faulkner, Lonoke, Perry, Pulaski, White47 min
Mar 13, 7:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLonoke, Monroe, Prairie, Woodruff46 min
Mar 13, 7:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Garland, Hot Spring, Pike59 min
Mar 13, 7:21 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKMonroe, Prairie, Woodruff39 min
Mar 13, 7:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAshley61 min
Mar 13, 7:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBradley, Drew46 min
Mar 13, 7:29 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKArkansas, Monroe46 min
Mar 13, 7:30 PM CDTTornado WarningSHVHempstead, Nevada33 min
Mar 13, 7:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBradley, Calhoun40 min
Mar 13, 7:35 PM CDTTornado WarningMEGLee, Phillips40 min
Mar 13, 7:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVUnion67 min
Mar 13, 7:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleburne, White51 min
Mar 13, 7:40 PM CDTTornado WarningMEGCross, St. Francis50 min
Mar 13, 7:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFaulkner, Lonoke, Pulaski48 min
Mar 13, 7:52 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKWhite28 min
Mar 13, 7:54 PM CDTTornado WarningJANAshley66 min
Mar 13, 7:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLincoln50 min
Mar 13, 8:02 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKWoodruff28 min
Mar 13, 8:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVHempstead, Nevada42 min
Mar 13, 8:05 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedMEGLee, Phillips40 min
Mar 13, 8:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKIndependence, Jackson, White, Woodruff44 min
Mar 13, 8:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVUnion24 min
Mar 13, 8:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBradley, Drew43 min
Mar 13, 8:21 PM CDTTornado WarningMEGCrittenden, Cross, St. Francis39 min
Mar 13, 8:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLonoke, Prairie, White51 min
Mar 13, 8:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAshley78 min
Mar 13, 8:32 PM CDTTornado WarningLZKArkansas, Desha, Jefferson, Lincoln43 min
Mar 13, 8:38 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedMEGCrittenden, Lee, St. Francis52 min
Mar 13, 8:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANChicot51 min
Mar 13, 8:54 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMEGLee, Phillips5 hr
Mar 13, 8:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCrittenden, Cross, Poinsett49 min
Mar 13, 8:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKDesha, Drew48 min
Mar 13, 9:01 PM CDTTornado WarningJANChicot27 min
Mar 13, 9:08 PM CDTTornado WarningMEGCrittenden, Cross, Mississippi, Poinsett24 min
Mar 13, 9:12 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKArkansas, Desha, Drew3 hr
Mar 13, 9:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCrittenden41 min
Mar 13, 9:32 PM CDTTornado WarningJANBolivar43 min
Mar 13, 9:36 PM CDTTornado WarningMEGDeSoto25 min
Mar 13, 9:41 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMEGCrittenden, Cross, Mississippi, Poinsett, St. Francis4 hr
Mar 13, 9:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCross, Poinsett33 min
Mar 13, 9:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCrittenden, Mississippi, Poinsett44 min
Mar 13, 10:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCrittenden45 min
Mar 13, 10:02 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMEGCrittenden, Mississippi4 hr
Mar 13, 10:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANChicot56 min
Mar 13, 10:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCraighead, Crittenden, Cross, Poinsett25 min
Mar 13, 10:09 PM CDTTornado WarningMEGMississippi19 min
Mar 13, 10:11 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMEGCrittenden, Lee, Phillips3 hr
Mar 13, 10:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANBolivar, Sunflower34 min
Mar 13, 10:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCraighead, Crittenden, Cross, Poinsett32 min
Mar 13, 10:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANSunflower, Washington28 min
Mar 13, 10:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGDeSoto17 min
Mar 13, 11:09 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANChicot6 hr
Mar 13, 11:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANIssaquena, Sharkey47 min
Mar 13, 11:31 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMEGCrockett, Dyer, Fayette, Gibson, Haywood, Lauderdale and 5 more3 hr
Mar 13, 11:45 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningJANBolivar, Sunflower6 hr
Mar 14, 12:13 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANHumphreys, Sharkey, Yazoo47 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 301 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2016-03-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 733 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2016-03-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -4 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
733 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
780 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
101 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

665 
WWUS20 KWNS 140009
SEL3  
SPC WW 140009
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-140700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 43
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  ARKANSAS
  EXTREME NORTHERN LOUISIANA
  WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
  SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 705 PM
  UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD FROM ARKANSAS AND FAR
NORTHERN LOUISIANA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WESTERN PARTS
OF MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE TONIGHT.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
BATESVILLE ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF MONTICELLO ARKANSAS. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 42. WATCH NUMBER 42 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 705
PM CDT. 

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...WEISS

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 13, 9:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Chicot, Crittenden, Cross, Desha and 12 more116 min
Mar 13, 8:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCIssaquena, Warren, Yazoo84 min
Mar 13, 11:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Calhoun, Carroll, Grenada, Holmes, Humphreys and 10 more93 min
Mar 14, 11:38 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Blount, Bradley, Carter, Claiborne, Cocke and 19 more97 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2016Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2016Tornado Watches in Tennessee, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.