Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 210

March 13, 2016East Carroll Parish, Louisiana; 16 counties in Mississippi; Fayette County, Haywood County, Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 13, 2016, 11:57 PM CDT for East Carroll Parish, Louisiana; 16 counties in Mississippi; Fayette County, Haywood County, Tennessee. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 13, 2016, 11:57 PM CDT (04:57 UTC)
Expired
Mar 14, 2016, 1:30 AM CDT
In force
93 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties East Carroll Parish, LA, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Yazoo County, MS, Fayette County, TN, Haywood County, TN

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 165 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 00:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2016-03-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 32 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2016-03-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 36 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
32 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-154 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1657 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
154 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

542 
ACUS11 KWNS 140457
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140457 
TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-140630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MS AND
SOUTHWEST TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 43...

VALID 140457Z - 140630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 43 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH 0530-07Z WILL BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST TN TO NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MS.  THEREAFTER...THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD UNDERGO FURTHER DIMINISHING
TREND.

DISCUSSION...AREA VWP DATA ACROSS MS REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER VWP AT JACKSON
AND COLUMBUS MS FAVORING STORM ROTATION.  WHILE A TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT INTO SOUTHWEST TN...THE RELATIVE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO WEST-CENTRAL MS WHERE MUCAPE IS THE STRONGEST /300-800 J
PER KG PER RAP ANALYSIS/.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
COMPACT MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW INTO NORTHERN MS AND WESTERN TN WILL
MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT FURTHER
WEAKENING OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FURTHER
REDUCTION IN STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS.

..PETERS.. 03/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32579141 33469081 33939021 34448974 35238959 35888933
            35668903 34198926 33308945 32818999 32509051 32489073
            32579141

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 13, 7:11 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCClaiborne, East Carroll, Lincoln, Morehouse, Ouachita, Union and 1 more6 hr
Mar 13, 8:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaldwell, Franklin, Jackson, Madison, Ouachita, Richland84 min
Mar 13, 9:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEast Carroll, Morehouse, Ouachita, West Carroll116 min
Mar 14, 11:38 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Blount, Bradley, Carter, Claiborne, Cocke and 19 more97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.