Mesoscale Discussion 209

Issued

Mar 13, 2016, 9:49 PM CDT (02:49 UTC)

Expired

Mar 13, 2016, 11:45 PM CDT

In force

116 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 166 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

575 
ACUS11 KWNS 140250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140249 
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-140445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0949 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/NORTHEAST LA/SOUTHWEST TN/WEST-CENTRAL
TO NORTHWEST MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 43...

VALID 140249Z - 140445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 43 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF AR INTO NORTHEAST
LA...WITH STORMS ADVANCING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWEST MS AND WESTERN TN DURING THE LATE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...AT 02Z...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND AVAILABLE VWP DATA
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH SHOWED THE SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET HAD STRENGTHENED TO 45-60 KT FROM SOUTHERN LA...
NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MS TO SOUTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR.  THIS LLJ
BENEATH A 50-55-KT WESTERLY MIDLEVEL JET EXTENDING INTO EASTERN AR
AND NORTHERN MS IS MAINTAINING FAVORABLE VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED...ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.  THESE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS AND 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF
7-7.5 C/KM WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE
EASTWARD-MOVING COMPACT CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT FURTHER STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS IN MRMS 7- AND 9-KM CAPPI DATA
SUGGEST GRADUAL WEAKENING UPDRAFTS/STORMS THAT ARE MOVING INTO
WESTERN TN...WHILE THE STRONGEST CELLS WERE LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST AR.
THE LATTER STORMS WERE LOCATED CLOSER TO RELATIVELY STRONGER
INSTABILITY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POSING A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO WESTERN MS. 

MEANWHILE...COUNTIES AND PARISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF WW 43
CAN CONTINUE TO BE CANCELLED AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES
AWAY FROM THESE COUNTIES/PARISHES INTO EASTERN AR/NORTHERN MS AND
WESTERN TN.

..PETERS.. 03/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32299237 33349193 34169213 34539212 35029166 35639093
            35898978 35828923 35608905 34218923 33298945 33289025
            32629076 32459095 32569145 32449178 32299237

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.