Mesoscale Discussion 207

Issued

Mar 13, 2016, 8:43 PM EDT (00:43 UTC)

Expired

Mar 13, 2016, 10:15 PM EDT

In force

92 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

5%

Counties Alamance County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Greene County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Orange County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wilson County, NC

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 36 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

121 
ACUS11 KWNS 140043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140043 
NCZ000-140215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 140043Z - 140215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.
DUE TO THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF THE THREAT...WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF NC OVER THE LAST
1-2 HRS...WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION WITH
WEAK MIDLEVEL ROTATION. WHILE FOCI FOR ASCENT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL DEFINED...A WEAK VORT MAX NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS
MAY BE PROVIDING SOME LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL NC MAY BE PROVIDING A
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS. 

WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...THE 00Z GSO SOUNDING AND RECENT RAX
VWP DATA SHOW SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL VEERING FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WHERE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EASTERLY. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILE...MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
STABILIZES. 

GIVEN THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF THE THREAT...WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

..DEAN/WEISS.. 03/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   35627959 36087967 36377881 36517758 36447679 36137665
            35757680 35597706 35477746 35427807 35507875 35527930
            35627959

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.