Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
732 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm complex rolls through early this morning. Approaching
cold front triggers more thunderstorms later today. It and low
pressure center cross Friday. High pressure for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 am update...
Second of two quick lines of severe thunderstorms rolling through
the area at this time. This should be followed by less organizedconvection
until this afternoon, when heating and approach of cold front well
upstream fire up next round of organized convection.

Previous discussion...
Thunderstorms along warm front across northern tier of forecast
area early this morning while western portion of thunderstorm
complex over Ohio rolls across WV. Severe thunderstorm watch in
effect given nocturnal cape, very strong shear / inflow.

Outflow boundaries and cool pool left in its wake later this
morning will impact where afternoon convection gets going as cold
front approaches from the northwest. Another round of severe
weather is likely especially where surface heating could be
maximized given strong shear remains in place.

The flash flood watch remains in affect given the high rainfall
rates in widespread convection.

The cold front and Low pressure center cross later tonight and
even beyond, with fog and low stratus likely becoming widespread
overnight as flow diminishes in the wake of the widespread rain.

Temperatures will be a strong function of the convection today,
but lows tonight looked to be a little higher than inherited on
account of slower progress of low pressure center and cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Have several features to track during the short term period. The
first is a pesky surface low and attached cold front which will be
over the CWA to begin the period. Brief high pressure will follow
this followed by a warm front late in the period as a surface low
moves across south central Canada.

Increased POPs with surface low and cold front Friday into Friday
night, as models continue to slow its departure. NAM and GFS try to
show some QPF across the mountains Saturday in the lingering
moisture and a weak 500mb shortwave trough moving through. However,
kept things dry for now on Saturday, thinking the moisture will be
too shallow for precipitation and weak surface high pressure should
be moving through.

That surface high is already headed out by Sunday, with moisture on
the increase and a warm front lifting through the Ohio River valley.
Added some slight chance POPs and increased clouds on Sunday to
account for this. With the increase in clouds, also lowered the high
on Sunday several degrees. Stayed on the warm side of guidance with
afternoon highs in the low 90s across the lowlands though.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Starting on Monday...used a blend of the ECMWF ensemble mean and
the GEFS mean. This would have a cold front slowly approaching
from the west on Monday and Tuesday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over the region in advance of the front.
The cold front would then push through on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Second of two quick hitting lines in a convective complex moving
through first thing this morning. Moving out of the HTS area near
12z, this line will affect CRW 12-13z and BKW 1230z-1330z.

Less organized convection will follow this morning.

Afternoon heating and the approach of a cold front from the
northwest will fire up more organized convection again this that
could last into this evening. There may again be several lines of
convection, making timing more difficult.

the showers and thunderstorms should wane tonight, with lingering
showers in its wake, and fog and stratus forming overnight.

southwest surface flow will be gusty at times outside
thunderstorms today but could be quite strong in thunderstorms.
Surface flow will become light and variable overnight tonight.
Moderate west flow aloft today will become northwest and
gradually diminish tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of changing conditions associated
with thunderstorms will vary. Fog and stratus formation overnight
tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in stratus and fog Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
409 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ007>011-014>020-027>032-039-040-232015-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-
RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-
409 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-013-232015-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-
409 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE GREATEST
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ036>038-046-047-232015-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
409 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND
DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024>026-033>035-232015-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
409 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
613 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 AM     FLASH FLOOD      AUBURN                  39.10N  80.86W
06/23/2016                   RITCHIE            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER CURRENTLY RISING IN AUBURN... HOMES SURROUNDED BY
            WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601063

MZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
626 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW KENNA              38.65N  81.70W
06/23/2016                   JACKSON            WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SINGLE WIDE TRAILER KNOCKED OFF ITS FOUNDATION ON
            BLACKBERRY LANE OFF YOUNG HOLLOW RD . MANY TREES DOWN IN
            THE AREA INCLUDING SOME BLOCKING RT 21 AT YOUNG HOLLOW
            RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601064

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
629 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 AM     TSTM WND DMG     COWEN                   38.41N  80.56W
06/23/2016                   WEBSTER            WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN COWEN. REPORT OF LARGE TREE INTO
            A HOUSE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601065

KMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
631 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DIANA                   38.57N  80.46W
06/23/2016                   WEBSTER            WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN ALONG ROUTE 20 IN DIANNA. POWER OUTAGE
            AT DIANA

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601066

KMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
657 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE CAMDEN            39.05N  80.52W
06/23/2016                   LEWIS              WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 33 IN PRICETOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601067

MZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
739 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

WVZ015-016-027-035>038-046-231300-
CLAY-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-NICHOLAS-KANAWHA-ROANE-FAYETTE-RALEIGH-
739 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RALEIGH...
NICHOLAS...CLAY...FAYETTE...SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER AND EASTERN KANAWHA
COUNTIES...

AT 739 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BIG OTTER TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MARMET. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHARLESTON...BECKLEY...SUMMERSVILLE...FAYETTEVILLE...RICHWOOD...
RAINELLE...CLAY...BABCOCK STATE PARK...SOUTH CHARLESTON...OAK HILL...
MONTGOMERY...CHESAPEAKE...MARMET...MOUNT HOPE...ANSTED...BELLE...
CLENDENIN...CEDAR GROVE...EAST BANK AND GLASGOW.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... INTERSTATE 79 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 1 AND 7...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 28 AND 36.
 INTERSTATE 77 IN WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 96 AND 104.
 INTERSTATE 64 IN WEST VIRGINIA NEAR MILE MARKER 57.
 WEST VIRGINIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 46 AND 95.
 INTERSTATE 64 IN WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 123 AND 137.
 ROUTE 119 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 75 AND 80.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3813 8036 3823 8036 3826 8044 3808 8071
      3810 8088 3806 8087 3806 8080 3804 8083
      3798 8077 3795 8081 3787 8075 3782 8094
      3777 8089 3772 8089 3771 8098 3765 8105
      3833 8174 3861 8117 3826 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1139Z 325DEG 32KT 3854 8098 3819 8166

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