Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
359 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm complex rolls through early this morning. Approaching
cold front triggers more thunderstorms later today. It and low
pressure center cross Friday. High pressure for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Thunderstorms along warm front across northern tier of forecast
area early this morning while western portion of thunderstorm
complex over Ohio rolls across WV. Severe thunderstorm watch in
effect given nocturnal cape, very strong shear / inflow.

Outflow boundaries and cool pool left in its wake later this
morning will impact where afternoon convection gets going as cold
front approaches from the northwest. Another round of severe
weather is likely especially where surface heating could be
maximized given strong shear remains in place.

The flash flood watch remains in affect given the high rainfall
rates in widespread convection.

The cold front and Low pressure center cross later tonight and
even beyond, with fog and low stratus likely becoming widespread
overnight as flow diminishes in the wake of the widespread rain.

Temperatures will be a strong function of the convection today,
but lows tonight looked to be a little higher than inherited on
account of slower progress of low pressure center and cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Have several features to track during the short term period. The
first is a pesky surface low and attached cold front which will be
over the CWA to begin the period. Brief high pressure will follow
this followed by a warm front late in the period as a surface low
moves across south central Canada.

Increased POPs with surface low and cold front Friday into Friday
night, as models continue to slow its departure. NAM and GFS try to
show some QPF across the mountains Saturday in the lingering
moisture and a weak 500mb shortwave trough moving through. However,
kept things dry for now on Saturday, thinking the moisture will be
too shallow for precipitation and weak surface high pressure should
be moving through.

That surface high is already headed out by Sunday, with moisture on
the increase and a warm front lifting through the Ohio River valley.
Added some slight chance POPs and increased clouds on Sunday to
account for this. With the increase in clouds, also lowered the high
on Sunday several degrees. Stayed on the warm side of guidance with
afternoon highs in the low 90s across the lowlands though.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Starting on Monday...used a blend of the ECMWF ensemble mean and
the GEFS mean. This would have a cold front slowly approaching
from the west on Monday and Tuesday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over the region in advance of the front.
The cold front would then push through on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A convective complex over Indiana and Ohio will move across WV
overnight and should at some point impact most TAF sites. The main
effect of the storms will be heavy rainfall with IFr conditions at
times, but very strong wind gusts and hail are also possible.
There should be a lull later Thursday morning before another round
of thunderstorms impacts the area Thursday Afternoon into Thursday
evening with similar effects, as a cold front approaches the area.

Southwest surface flow will become a bit gusty even outside
thunderstorms Thursday and then diminish Thursday night. Moderate
to strong west flow aloft through Thursday will diminish a bit
Thursday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of changing conditions associated
with thunderstorms will vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    THU 06/23/16
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in lingering showers and thunderstorms 06z Friday to
12z Friday. Low stratus ceilings forming in the moist/saturated
low levels could linger Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
409 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ007>011-014>020-027>032-039-040-232015-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-
RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-
409 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-013-232015-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-
409 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE GREATEST
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ036>038-046-047-232015-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
409 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND
DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024>026-033>035-232015-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
409 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
439 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HARRISVILLE             39.21N  81.05W
06/23/2016                   RITCHIE            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER RISING INTO NURSING HOME -- FIRE DEPARTMENT ON
            SCENE. ALSO REPORTING AREAS OF HIGH WATER IN OTHER PARTS
            OF RITCHIE COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601059

MZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
532 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. MARYS               39.40N  81.20W
06/23/2016                   PLEASANTS          WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG HEBRON ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601060

MZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
535 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

WVZ027-028-037-038-046-047-231030-
CLAY-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-BRAXTON-NICHOLAS-RANDOLPH-
535 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT POCAHONTAS...NICHOLAS...EAST
CENTRAL CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN BRAXTON AND WEBSTER COUNTIES...

AT 535 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BIRCH
RIVER...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUTTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUMMERSVILLE...RICHWOOD...MARLINTON...SUTTON...CLAY...
CASS SCENIC RAILROAD...WEBSTER SPRINGS...ADDISON (WEBSTER SPRINGS)...
CAMDEN-ON-GAULEY...CRAIGSVILLE...HOLLY RIVER STATE...
CAMDEN ON GAULEY...BIRCH RIVER...SNOWSHOE...HARRISON...MINGO...
COWEN...HILLSBORO...DIANA AND CALVIN.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 54 AND 62...AND NEAR
MILE MARKER 66.

LAT...LON 3836 7976 3831 7981 3827 7979 3819 7992
      3813 7994 3810 7993 3806 7996 3804 8021
      3805 8027 3811 8036 3823 8036 3826 8043
      3812 8066 3847 8110 3877 8053 3836 7974
TIME...MOT...LOC 0935Z 322DEG 48KT 3851 8082

17