Areal Flood Warning 15, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1042 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm complex rolls through early this morning. Approaching
cold front triggers more thunderstorms later today. It and low
pressure center cross Friday. High pressure for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1040 AM UPDATE...Have extended the Flash Flood Watch to include
Buchanan and Dickenson Counties in Virginia. Have also extended
the expiration time for the Watch until 8 pm tonight as cold front
is going to take its time coming through the region.

930 am update...Forecast remains mostly on track...but just update
PoP based on current radar and observations. On going convection
will continue to push through over the next couple hours and then
more cells will develop later today when cold front pushes in from
the north.

700 am update...
Second of two quick lines of severe thunderstorms rolling through
the area at this time. This should be followed by less organized convection
until this afternoon, when heating and approach of cold front well
upstream fire up next round of organized convection.

Previous discussion...
Thunderstorms along warm front across northern tier of forecast
area early this morning while western portion of thunderstorm
complex over Ohio rolls across WV. Severe thunderstorm watch in
effect given nocturnal cape, very strong shear / inflow.

Outflow boundaries and cool pool left in its wake later this
morning will impact where afternoon convection gets going as cold
front approaches from the northwest. Another round of severe
weather is likely especially where surface heating could be
maximized given strong shear remains in place.

The flash flood watch remains in affect given the high rainfall
rates in widespread convection.

The cold front and Low pressure center cross later tonight and
even beyond, with fog and low stratus likely becoming widespread
overnight as flow diminishes in the wake of the widespread rain.

Temperatures will be a strong function of the convection today,
but lows tonight looked to be a little higher than inherited on
account of slower progress of low pressure center and cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Have several features to track during the short term period. The
first is a pesky surface low and attached cold front which will be
over the CWA to begin the period. Brief high pressure will follow
this followed by a warm front late in the period as a surface low
moves across south central Canada.

Increased POPs with surface low and cold front Friday into Friday
night, as models continue to slow its departure. NAM and GFS try to
show some QPF across the mountains Saturday in the lingering
moisture and a weak 500mb shortwave trough moving through. However,
kept things dry for now on Saturday, thinking the moisture will be
too shallow for precipitation and weak surface high pressure should
be moving through.

That surface high is already headed out by Sunday, with moisture on
the increase and a warm front lifting through the Ohio River valley.
Added some slight chance POPs and increased clouds on Sunday to
account for this. With the increase in clouds, also lowered the high
on Sunday several degrees. Stayed on the warm side of guidance with
afternoon highs in the low 90s across the lowlands though.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Starting on Monday...used a blend of the ECMWF ensemble mean and
the GEFS mean. This would have a cold front slowly approaching
from the west on Monday and Tuesday...with showers and
thunderstorms developing over the region in advance of the front.
The cold front would then push through on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Second of two quick hitting lines in a convective complex moving
through first thing this morning. Moving out of the HTS area near
12z, this line will affect CRW 12-13z and BKW 1230z-1330z.

Less organized convection will follow this morning.

Afternoon heating and the approach of a cold front from the
northwest will fire up more organized convection again this that
could last into this evening. There may again be several lines of
convection, making timing more difficult.

the showers and thunderstorms should wane tonight, with lingering
showers in its wake, and fog and stratus forming overnight.

southwest surface flow will be gusty at times outside
thunderstorms today but could be quite strong in thunderstorms.
Surface flow will become light and variable overnight tonight.
Moderate west flow aloft today will become northwest and
gradually diminish tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of changing conditions associated
with thunderstorms will vary. Fog and stratus formation overnight
tonight may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in stratus and fog Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MPK
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1047 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-241500-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
1047 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

KISTNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1218 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW MALTA              39.68N  81.90W
06/23/2016                   MORGAN             OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING STATE ROUTE 669. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601077

COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1235 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HAMLIN                  38.28N  82.10W
06/23/2016                   LINCOLN            WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ALONG THE MUD RIVER IN HAMLIN. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601083

COOPER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW BIG OTTER          38.61N  81.06W
06/23/2016                   CLAY               WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CARPORT AND CAMPER BLOWN OVER BY THUNDERSTORM WIND

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601085

COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
136 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BIRCH RIVER             38.50N  80.76W
06/23/2016                   NICHOLAS           WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN AREA FROM MEDIA PHOTOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601086

COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     FLOOD            SSW MARMET              38.25N  81.57W
06/23/2016                   KANAWHA            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            MUDSLIDE REPORTED ALONG LENS CREEK NEAR MARMET

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1601087

COOPER