Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
651 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS OF 3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN
THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COOLED THE AIR. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS
AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
ADVECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE 50S AND WILL LIKELY RISE
INTO THE 60S BY TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE INITIALLY
ELEVATED TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS TO HOW THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST THINKING IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND FAVORABLE 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGEST THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS IF STORMS
CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED.

THE TORNADIC THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING AS
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WEAKENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH VALUES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AFTER THE INITIAL MORNING ACTIVITY MOVES OUT
AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THAT BECOMES SEVERE ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS WITH AMOUNTS AVERAGING BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-40 REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE MID SOUTH FOR FRIDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BRINGING MAINLY RAIN FREE WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG TERM MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONT
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR
MEM... FOLLOWED RECENT HRRR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE AND
TIMING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED AFTER 02Z...WITH
STRONGER FORCING AROUND 05Z RESULTING IN INCREASED COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. BULK OF TSRA EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE MEM TRACON BY
OVERNIGHT OUTBOUND PUSH.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
     PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CHESTER-DECATUR-
     FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
419 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-311215-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
419 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
PARAGOULD ARKANSAS TO HOUSTON MISSISSIPPI. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT. A SECONDARY THREAT FOR TORNADOES
IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A SEVERE THREAT MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING AS A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PREDOMINANT THREATS DURING THIS PERIOD. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
703 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

MSZ005-006-009-TNZ092-310030-
TISHOMINGO MS-ALCORN MS-PRENTISS MS-HARDIN TN-
703 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHERN TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
EASTERN ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEASTERN PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN HARDIN COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...

AT 703 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER LEEDY...OR 11 MILES
WEST OF IUKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN TISHOMINGO...EASTERN ALCORN...NORTHEASTERN
PRENTISS AND SOUTHERN HARDIN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3500 8804 3501 8820 3492 8816 3491 8814
      3468 8836 3478 8854 3500 8839 3500 8838
      3502 8838 3525 8822 3512 8798 3507 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 214DEG 44KT 3480 8840

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
721 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ026-027-035-310100-
CRAIGHEAD AR-CROSS AR-POINSETT AR-
721 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

AT 720 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR BEEDEVILLE...OR 15
MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD...NORTHWESTERN CROSS AND POINSETT
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3563 9104 3589 9048 3551 9033 3531 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 239DEG 49KT 3546 9106

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
758 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RAVENDEN                36.24N 91.25W
03/30/2016                   LAWRENCE           AR   PUBLIC

            ROAD IMPASSABLE DUE TO WATER RUSHING OVER ROAD.

&&

AJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
817 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MANY ROADS FLOODED IN JONESBORO... MANY CARS STALLED IN
            HIGH WATER. WATER MOVING SWIFTLY.

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
818 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   PUBLIC

            PICTURE ON TWITTER OF KAYS BUILDING ON THE CAMPUS OF ASU
            FLOODED.

&&

JPM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
839 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ028-MOZ115-TNZ019-020-048-310230-
MISSISSIPPI AR-PEMISCOT MO-LAUDERDALE TN-DYER TN-GIBSON TN-
839 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
DYER COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
WEST CENTRAL GIBSON COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...

AT 839 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH
WAS LOCATED NEAR BLYTHEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEASTERN PEMISCOT...
NORTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE...DYER AND WEST CENTRAL GIBSON COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3602 8916 3581 8949 3575 8989 3592 8997
      3618 8961 3620 8940 3620 8916
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 239DEG 48KT 3589 8983