River Flood Warning 62, NWS Memphis, TN

979 
WGUS84 KMEG 311604
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1104 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

The Flood Warning continues for the Loosahatchie River...North Fork 
Obion River...S.F. Fork Forked Deer River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A followup Flood Statement will be issued later today.

For graphical river and flood information...please go to 
www.weather.gov and click near Memphis on the map. Then select Rivers
and Lakes AHPS under current conditions.

Do not drive through flooded areas...turn around don't drown.

Stay tuned to your weather radio and your local news media for the 
latest river information.

&&

TNC131-183-011604-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-160402T0000Z/
/NOMT1.1.ER.160331T1723Z.160401T0000Z.160401T1800Z.NO/
1104 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fork Obion River near Martin
* from Thursday March 31 until Friday April 1.
* At 10 AM Thursday the stage was 18.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Maximum forecast stage of 20.5 feet later Thursday March 31.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Thursday March 31 and 
  continue to rise to near 20.5 feet by Thursday March 31.The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Friday April 01.
* At 21.0 feet...Residents in the community of Rives should complete 
  necessary flood precautions. Evacuations may be required. Extensive
  crop land flooding is occurring near the river in northeast Obion 
  County and the northwest portion of Weakley County. Equipment and 
  livestock should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 8909 3649 8872 3633 8872 3633 8909


$$

TNC033-045-097-011604-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HLST1.1.ER.160331T0832Z.160401T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1104 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the S.F. Fork Forked Deer River near Halls
* until further notice.
* At 10 AM Thursday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring AND Minor flooding is forecast.
* Maximum forecast stage of 12.6 feet Thursday March 31.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* The river rose above flood stage Thursday March 31 and will 
  continue rising to near 12.6 feet by  Thursday March 31 then begin 
  falling.
* At 12.5 feet...Water is flowing over Highway 210 north of Halls. 
  Several low lying roads near the South Fork of the Forked Deer 
  River are flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 8948 3600 8940 3589 8932 3584 8940


$$

TNC047-157-010208-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0062.160331T1612Z-160401T0208Z/
/ARLT1.1.ER.160331T1612Z.160331T1800Z.160331T2008Z.NO/
1104 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Loosahatchie River at Loosahatchie River Near Arlington 2NE
* from Thursday March 31 until Thursday March 31.
* At 10 AM Thursday the stage was 19.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Maximum forecast stage of 20.5 feet Thursday March 31.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Thursday March 31 and 
  continue to rise to near 20.5 feet by Thursday March 31.The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Thursday March 31.
* At 21.0 feet...Brief road is flooding. 

&&

LAT...LON 3533 9005 3530 8980 3538 8964 3520 8964
      3524 8989 3522 9004             

$$

726 
WGUS84 KMEG 311948
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
248 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

The Flood Warning continues for the Loosahatchie River...North Fork 
Obion River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A followup Flood Statement will be issued later this evening or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

For graphical river and flood information...please go to 
www.weather.gov and click near Memphis on the map. Then select Rivers
and Lakes AHPS under current conditions.

Do not drive through flooded areas...turn around don't drown.

Stay tuned to your weather radio and your local news media for the 
latest river information.

&&

TNC131-183-312018-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-160402T0000Z/
/NOMT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
248 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

Forecast information for
  North Fork Obion River near Martin
* At 02 PM Thursday the stage was 18.7 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Maximum forecast stage of 19.5 feet Thursday March 31.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near 19.5 feet Thursday March 31.
* At 20.0 feet...Flooding is occurring along the North Fork Obion 
  River in Northeast Obion County and Northwest Weakley County. 
  Flooding is also occurring in low lying areas near Union City.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 8909 3649 8872 3633 8872 3633 8909


$$

TNC047-157-312018-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-160401T0208Z/
/ARLT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
248 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

Forecast information for
  Loosahatchie River at Loosahatchie River Near Arlington 2NE
* At 02 PM Thursday the stage was 19.8 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near 19.5 feet Thursday March 31.
* At 19.0 feet...Stewart Road South begins to flood. Low lying 
  farmland begins to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3533 9005 3530 8980 3538 8964 3520 8964
      3524 8989 3522 9004             

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

THERE ARE TWO MAIN FOCUSES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE:

1) THE ONGOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE NEAR-TERM...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS HAVING ALREADY PICKED UP 3-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

2) SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-
SOUTH...HEADLINED BY THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...POSSIBLE. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL/BOWING LINE SEGMENT.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SHIELD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WAS SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE WITH LOCALIZED AREAS HAVING PICKED UP NEARLY 6 INCHES. THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS BEING FED BY A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED
BY A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE/ASSOCIATED JET MAX ALOFT. A TRAILING
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE WAS LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE MID-
SOUTH MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR.

IN THE NEAR-TERM...EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST. THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPLY BUOYANT INFLOW INTO THE COMPLEX...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHTNING IN THE BACK-BUILDING REGION OF THE
PRECIP MASS. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE UNANIMOUSLY IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING RAPID
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE. A RESERVOIR OF VERY MOIST
AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY ADVECT
NORTH INTO E AR/NW MS/W TN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE INTO
THE MID 60S...PERHAPS UPPER 60S IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...BY NOON.
A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD
THE MID-SOUTH ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. A VOLATILE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH SBCAPE
NEARING 3000 J/KG. THE DEEP LAYER KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
IMPRESSIVE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KTS DEPICTED...MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST SUPERCELLS. FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL...WITH HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER VERY POSSIBLE. CONCERNING THE TORNADO THREAT...THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS. THE LACK OF A
STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO VEER IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL
GUIDANCE HERE. THE 4 KM NAM IS MOST CONCERNING AS IT MAINTAINS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
THE 0-1 KM SRH FIELD...MAINTAINING GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1
KM SRH. IF THE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN THE 4 KM NAM COMES TO
FRUITION...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT A VEERING OF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR...PERHAPS FAVORING BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL...WINDS...AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING SEASONAL AVERAGES UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

IN THE LONG-TERM...THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN.
THE GFS DEPICTS A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERS BETWEEN GLOBAL
MODELS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FINISHED BY 14Z AS INITIAL
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING WITH SKIES SCATTERING OUT. MVFR/IFR CIGS
EARLY WILL BECOME VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPORARY
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
     PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-DECATUR-
     FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
458 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-011200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
458 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL...UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.