River Flood Warning 61, NWS Memphis, TN

979 
WGUS84 KMEG 311604
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1104 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

The Flood Warning continues for the Loosahatchie River...North Fork 
Obion River...S.F. Fork Forked Deer River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A followup Flood Statement will be issued later today.

For graphical river and flood information...please go to 
www.weather.gov and click near Memphis on the map. Then select Rivers
and Lakes AHPS under current conditions.

Do not drive through flooded areas...turn around don't drown.

Stay tuned to your weather radio and your local news media for the 
latest river information.

&&

TNC131-183-011604-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-160402T0000Z/
/NOMT1.1.ER.160331T1723Z.160401T0000Z.160401T1800Z.NO/
1104 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the North Fork Obion River near Martin
* from Thursday March 31 until Friday April 1.
* At 10 AM Thursday the stage was 18.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Maximum forecast stage of 20.5 feet later Thursday March 31.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Thursday March 31 and 
  continue to rise to near 20.5 feet by Thursday March 31.The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Friday April 01.
* At 21.0 feet...Residents in the community of Rives should complete 
  necessary flood precautions. Evacuations may be required. Extensive
  crop land flooding is occurring near the river in northeast Obion 
  County and the northwest portion of Weakley County. Equipment and 
  livestock should be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 8909 3649 8872 3633 8872 3633 8909


$$

TNC033-045-097-011604-
/O.CON.KMEG.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HLST1.1.ER.160331T0832Z.160401T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1104 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the S.F. Fork Forked Deer River near Halls
* until further notice.
* At 10 AM Thursday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring AND Minor flooding is forecast.
* Maximum forecast stage of 12.6 feet Thursday March 31.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* The river rose above flood stage Thursday March 31 and will 
  continue rising to near 12.6 feet by  Thursday March 31 then begin 
  falling.
* At 12.5 feet...Water is flowing over Highway 210 north of Halls. 
  Several low lying roads near the South Fork of the Forked Deer 
  River are flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 8948 3600 8940 3589 8932 3584 8940


$$

TNC047-157-010208-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FL.W.0062.160331T1612Z-160401T0208Z/
/ARLT1.1.ER.160331T1612Z.160331T1800Z.160331T2008Z.NO/
1104 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Loosahatchie River at Loosahatchie River Near Arlington 2NE
* from Thursday March 31 until Thursday March 31.
* At 10 AM Thursday the stage was 19.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Maximum forecast stage of 20.5 feet Thursday March 31.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Thursday March 31 and 
  continue to rise to near 20.5 feet by Thursday March 31.The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Thursday March 31.
* At 21.0 feet...Brief road is flooding. 

&&

LAT...LON 3533 9005 3530 8980 3538 8964 3520 8964
      3524 8989 3522 9004             

$$

726 
WGUS84 KMEG 311948
FLSMEG
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
248 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

The Flood Warning continues for the Loosahatchie River...North Fork 
Obion River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A followup Flood Statement will be issued later this evening or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

For graphical river and flood information...please go to 
www.weather.gov and click near Memphis on the map. Then select Rivers
and Lakes AHPS under current conditions.

Do not drive through flooded areas...turn around don't drown.

Stay tuned to your weather radio and your local news media for the 
latest river information.

&&

TNC131-183-312018-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-160402T0000Z/
/NOMT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
248 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

Forecast information for
  North Fork Obion River near Martin
* At 02 PM Thursday the stage was 18.7 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Maximum forecast stage of 19.5 feet Thursday March 31.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near 19.5 feet Thursday March 31.
* At 20.0 feet...Flooding is occurring along the North Fork Obion 
  River in Northeast Obion County and Northwest Weakley County. 
  Flooding is also occurring in low lying areas near Union City.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 8909 3649 8872 3633 8872 3633 8909


$$

TNC047-157-312018-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-160401T0208Z/
/ARLT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
248 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

Forecast information for
  Loosahatchie River at Loosahatchie River Near Arlington 2NE
* At 02 PM Thursday the stage was 19.8 feet.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near 19.5 feet Thursday March 31.
* At 19.0 feet...Stewart Road South begins to flood. Low lying 
  farmland begins to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3533 9005 3530 8980 3538 8964 3520 8964
      3524 8989 3522 9004             

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. HAVE TRIMMED THE
NORTHERN END OF THE TORNADO WATCH...WHERE STRONG CONVECTION AND
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING HAVE OCCURRED. DOWN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
MEMPHIS... A WELL ORGANIZED MCV WAS MOVING NORTHEAST UP THE
DELTA. THIS FEATURE WAS ENCOUNTERING STRONGLY CAPPED LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY LESS THAN 300 J/KG. BUT MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WAS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED
LAYER. THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV WAS RESULTING IN WEAK MIDLEVEL
STORM ROTATION OVER PHILLIPS AND LEE COUNTY AR. MODEST USABLE LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY ASIDE... THE STRONG SHEAR UPSTREAM OF THE
MEMPHIS METRO PRECLUDED AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE REST OF
TORNADO WATCH 63. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE
THE TORNADO WATCH RUNNING THROUGH TO EXPIRATION.

MAIN OVERNIGHT THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FLASH FLOODING... WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS SUPPLIED WITH ELEVATED MOIST INFLOW FROM A 50 TO 70
KT LOW LEVEL JET. OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT MAY PREVAIL FROM CHARLESTON
AND COAHOMA MS OVER TO HELENA/WEST HELENA...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY CAN EXPAND NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN LA.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS OF 3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN
THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COOLED THE AIR. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS
AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
ADVECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE 50S AND WILL LIKELY RISE
INTO THE 60S BY TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE INITIALLY
ELEVATED TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS TO HOW THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST THINKING IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND FAVORABLE 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGEST THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS IF STORMS
CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED.

THE TORNADIC THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING AS
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WEAKENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH VALUES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AFTER THE INITIAL MORNING ACTIVITY MOVES OUT
AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THAT BECOMES SEVERE ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS WITH AMOUNTS AVERAGING BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-40 REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE MID SOUTH FOR FRIDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BRINGING MAINLY RAIN FREE WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG TERM MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONT
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GREATEST COVERAGE AT
MEM LIKELY THROUGH 08Z. FOLLOWING A MORNING BREAK...LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE AND BECOME UNCAPPED TO TSRA
FORMATION BY 18Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
     PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CHESTER-DECATUR-
     FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1123 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-010630-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1123 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A WEAK SHORT-LIVED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 WILL SEE THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
931 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S JONESBORO           35.76N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OFFICERS REPORT PORTION OF LAWSON RD WASHED AWAY NEAR SAN
            SOUCI RD

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
948 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     FLASH FLOOD      E JONESBORO             35.82N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 FEET OF WATER IN A HOME ON THE 2500 BLOCK OF MARY JANE
            STREET IN EAST JONESBORO

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RAVENDEN                36.24N 91.25W
03/30/2016                   LAWRENCE           AR   PUBLIC

            ROAD IMPASSABLE DUE TO WATER RUSHING OVER ROAD.

0817 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   PUBLIC

            PICTURE ON TWITTER OF KAYS BUILDING ON THE CAMPUS OF ASU
            FLOODED.

0817 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MANY ROADS FLOODED IN JONESBORO... MANY CARS STALLED IN
            HIGH WATER. WATER MOVING SWIFTLY.

0844 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAJOR FLOODING IN THE JONESBORO AREA. SEVERAL ROADS WITH
            2FT OF WATER. POLICE CLOSING STREETS. WATER RESCUES
            ONGOING.

0900 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE JONESBORO          35.80N 90.66W
03/30/2016  M3.48 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            JONESBORO CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTS 3.48 INCHES OF STORM
            TOTAL RAIN.

0931 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S JONESBORO           35.76N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OFFICERS REPORT PORTION OF LAWSON RD WASHED AWAY NEAR SAN
            SOUCI RD

0948 PM     FLASH FLOOD      E JONESBORO             35.82N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 FEET OF WATER IN A HOME ON THE 2500 BLOCK OF MARY JANE
            STREET IN EAST JONESBORO

&&

JPM