Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Memphis, TN

772 
WWUS54 KMEG 311846
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
146 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

TNC047-075-157-167-311915-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160331T1915Z/
TIPTON TN-HAYWOOD TN-FAYETTE TN-SHELBY TN-
146 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON...HAYWOOD...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES...

AT 146 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF
DANCYVILLE...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COVINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BROWNSVILLE...COVINGTON...MUNFORD...BRIGHTON...HILLVILLE...
DANCYVILLE...HOLLY GROVE...ATOKA...MASON...GALLAWAY...STANTON...
BRADEN...CROSSTOWN...JONES...OAKVIEW...GIFT...GAINESVILLE...
ROSEMARK...KEELING AND BELMONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3567 8907 3543 8912 3543 8918 3540 8919
      3529 8981 3544 8982 3552 8965 3557 8957
      3558 8951 3558 8949 3560 8947 3563 8940
      3568 8924
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 261DEG 30KT 3544 8949 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1227 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE APPROACHED SEVERE LIMITS
AND AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

THERE ARE TWO MAIN FOCUSES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE:

1) THE ONGOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE NEAR-TERM...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS HAVING ALREADY PICKED UP 3-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

2) SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-
SOUTH...HEADLINED BY THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...POSSIBLE. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL/BOWING LINE SEGMENT.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SHIELD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WAS SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE WITH LOCALIZED AREAS HAVING PICKED UP NEARLY 6 INCHES. THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS BEING FED BY A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED
BY A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE/ASSOCIATED JET MAX ALOFT. A TRAILING
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE WAS LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE MID-
SOUTH MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR.

IN THE NEAR-TERM...EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST. THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPLY BUOYANT INFLOW INTO THE COMPLEX...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHTNING IN THE BACK-BUILDING REGION OF THE
PRECIP MASS. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE UNANIMOUSLY IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING RAPID
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE. A RESERVOIR OF VERY MOIST
AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY ADVECT
NORTH INTO E AR/NW MS/W TN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE INTO
THE MID 60S...PERHAPS UPPER 60S IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...BY NOON.
A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD
THE MID-SOUTH ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. A VOLATILE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH SBCAPE
NEARING 3000 J/KG. THE DEEP LAYER KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
IMPRESSIVE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KTS DEPICTED...MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST SUPERCELLS. FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL...WITH HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER VERY POSSIBLE. CONCERNING THE TORNADO THREAT...THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS. THE LACK OF A
STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO VEER IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL
GUIDANCE HERE. THE 4 KM NAM IS MOST CONCERNING AS IT MAINTAINS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
THE 0-1 KM SRH FIELD...MAINTAINING GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1
KM SRH. IF THE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN THE 4 KM NAM COMES TO
FRUITION...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT A VEERING OF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR...PERHAPS FAVORING BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL...WINDS...AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING SEASONAL AVERAGES UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

IN THE LONG-TERM...THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN.
THE GFS DEPICTS A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERS BETWEEN GLOBAL
MODELS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF SET

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIKELY COME TO AN END AT JBR FOR
THIS TAF CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM THE NORTHWEST 10-20KT.

STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT
MKL...MEM AND TUP. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE TODAY.
SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT. PREVAILING CIGS WILL BE MVFR.

FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MEM WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20-22Z...MKL FROM 21-24Z...AND TUP 22-02Z.
TEMPORARY IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-
     DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
458 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-011200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
458 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL...UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1143 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

TNZ001-002-019-020-311730-
LAKE TN-DYER TN-GIBSON TN-OBION TN-
1143 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR...

LAKE COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
DYER COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHWESTERN GIBSON COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
OBION COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...

AT 1142 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA SIZE
HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR PORTAGEVILLE TO CARUTHERSVILLE TO
NEAR HELOISE... AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LAKE...DYER...NORTHWESTERN GIBSON AND OBION COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3650 8895 3620 8898 3599 8905 3598 8917
      3600 8919 3598 8920 3593 8967 3597 8972
      3600 8973 3603 8969 3609 8968 3614 8959
      3625 8969 3625 8953 3633 8962 3635 8952
      3644 8954 3648 8952 3646 8946 3650 8941
TIME...MOT...LOC 1642Z 264DEG 42KT 3638 8961 3616 8964 3600 8969

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1227 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

TNZ048-049-088-311815-
TIPTON TN-LAUDERDALE TN-SHELBY TN-
1227 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR...

TIPTON COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...

AT 1226 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR EARLE...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN TIPTON...SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE AND NORTHEASTERN SHELBY
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3547 9012 3548 9011 3547 9007 3539 9005
      3540 9004 3546 9002 3551 9005 3555 9003
      3556 8999 3551 8992 3555 8991 3557 8995
      3561 8962 3526 8965 3526 9012 3530 9013
      3538 9007 3541 9014 3544 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 259DEG 47KT 3536 9045

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1246 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WYNNE                   35.23N 90.79W
03/31/2016                   CROSS              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DOZENS OF TREES AND POWER POLES DOWN...MOSTLY ON THE
            NORTH SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1247 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MOZ115-TNZ001>003-019-311815-
PEMISCOT MO-WEAKLEY TN-LAKE TN-DYER TN-OBION TN-
1247 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR...

EAST CENTRAL PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN WEAKLEY COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
LAKE COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHWESTERN DYER COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
OBION COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...

AT 1246 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT 50 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR CARUTHERSVILLE... MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

${REPORT2}

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL PEMISCOT...NORTHWESTERN WEAKLEY...LAKE...
NORTHWESTERN DYER AND OBION COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3650 8891 3648 8881 3605 8964 3621 8973
      3651 8926
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 236DEG 68KT 3618 8960

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1255 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

ARZ028-MOZ115-TNZ019-048-311830-
MISSISSIPPI AR-PEMISCOT MO-LAUDERDALE TN-DYER TN-
1255 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 130 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN DYER COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...

AT 1255 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS UP TO 55 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER BURDETTE...OR OVER
LUXORA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL PEMISCOT...
NORTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE AND SOUTHWESTERN DYER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3566 9011 3586 9008 3608 8959 3581 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 239DEG 52KT 3580 8994

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1258 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             LEPANTO                 35.61N 90.33W
03/31/2016  E1.00 INCH       POINSETT           AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            1 INCH HAIL IN LEPANTO.

1251 PM     TSTM WND GST     JOINER                  35.51N 90.15W
03/31/2016  E0 MPH           MISSISSIPPI        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HOME WEATHER STATION ANEMOMETER RECORDED A GUST OF 80
            MPH.

&&

MRM