Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Memphis, TN

041 
WGUS74 KMEG 311011
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
511 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

ARC035-TNC157-311021-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0050.000000T0000Z-160331T1115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRITTENDEN AR-SHELBY TN-
511 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CRITTENDEN AND CENTRAL
SHELBY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO POSE A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3532 8983 3500 8991 3500 9028 3533 9014

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. HAVE TRIMMED THE
NORTHERN END OF THE TORNADO WATCH...WHERE STRONG CONVECTION AND
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING HAVE OCCURRED. DOWN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
MEMPHIS... A WELL ORGANIZED MCV WAS MOVING NORTHEAST UP THE
DELTA. THIS FEATURE WAS ENCOUNTERING STRONGLY CAPPED LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY LESS THAN 300 J/KG. BUT MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WAS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED
LAYER. THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV WAS RESULTING IN WEAK MIDLEVEL
STORM ROTATION OVER PHILLIPS AND LEE COUNTY AR. MODEST USABLE LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY ASIDE... THE STRONG SHEAR UPSTREAM OF THE
MEMPHIS METRO PRECLUDED AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE REST OF
TORNADO WATCH 63. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE
THE TORNADO WATCH RUNNING THROUGH TO EXPIRATION.

MAIN OVERNIGHT THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FLASH FLOODING... WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS SUPPLIED WITH ELEVATED MOIST INFLOW FROM A 50 TO 70
KT LOW LEVEL JET. OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT MAY PREVAIL FROM CHARLESTON
AND COAHOMA MS OVER TO HELENA/WEST HELENA...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY CAN EXPAND NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN LA.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS OF 3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN
THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COOLED THE AIR. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS
AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
ADVECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE 50S AND WILL LIKELY RISE
INTO THE 60S BY TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE INITIALLY
ELEVATED TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS TO HOW THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST THINKING IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND FAVORABLE 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGEST THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS IF STORMS
CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED.

THE TORNADIC THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING AS
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WEAKENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH VALUES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AFTER THE INITIAL MORNING ACTIVITY MOVES OUT
AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THAT BECOMES SEVERE ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS WITH AMOUNTS AVERAGING BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-40 REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE MID SOUTH FOR FRIDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BRINGING MAINLY RAIN FREE WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG TERM MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONT
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GREATEST COVERAGE AT
MEM LIKELY THROUGH 08Z. FOLLOWING A MORNING BREAK...LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE AND BECOME UNCAPPED TO TSRA
FORMATION BY 18Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
     PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CHESTER-DECATUR-
     FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1123 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-010630-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1123 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A WEAK SHORT-LIVED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 WILL SEE THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
931 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S JONESBORO           35.76N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OFFICERS REPORT PORTION OF LAWSON RD WASHED AWAY NEAR SAN
            SOUCI RD

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
948 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     FLASH FLOOD      E JONESBORO             35.82N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 FEET OF WATER IN A HOME ON THE 2500 BLOCK OF MARY JANE
            STREET IN EAST JONESBORO

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RAVENDEN                36.24N 91.25W
03/30/2016                   LAWRENCE           AR   PUBLIC

            ROAD IMPASSABLE DUE TO WATER RUSHING OVER ROAD.

0817 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   PUBLIC

            PICTURE ON TWITTER OF KAYS BUILDING ON THE CAMPUS OF ASU
            FLOODED.

0817 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MANY ROADS FLOODED IN JONESBORO... MANY CARS STALLED IN
            HIGH WATER. WATER MOVING SWIFTLY.

0844 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAJOR FLOODING IN THE JONESBORO AREA. SEVERAL ROADS WITH
            2FT OF WATER. POLICE CLOSING STREETS. WATER RESCUES
            ONGOING.

0900 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE JONESBORO          35.80N 90.66W
03/30/2016  M3.48 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            JONESBORO CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTS 3.48 INCHES OF STORM
            TOTAL RAIN.

0931 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S JONESBORO           35.76N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OFFICERS REPORT PORTION OF LAWSON RD WASHED AWAY NEAR SAN
            SOUCI RD

0948 PM     FLASH FLOOD      E JONESBORO             35.82N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 FEET OF WATER IN A HOME ON THE 2500 BLOCK OF MARY JANE
            STREET IN EAST JONESBORO

&&

JPM