Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1012 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE APPROACHED SEVERE LIMITS
AND AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

THERE ARE TWO MAIN FOCUSES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE:

1) THE ONGOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE NEAR-TERM...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS HAVING ALREADY PICKED UP 3-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

2) SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-
SOUTH...HEADLINED BY THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...POSSIBLE. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL/BOWING LINE SEGMENT.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SHIELD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WAS SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE WITH LOCALIZED AREAS HAVING PICKED UP NEARLY 6 INCHES. THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS BEING FED BY A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED
BY A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE/ASSOCIATED JET MAX ALOFT. A TRAILING
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE WAS LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE MID-
SOUTH MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR.

IN THE NEAR-TERM...EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST. THE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPLY BUOYANT INFLOW INTO THE COMPLEX...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY
THE PRESENCE OF LIGHTNING IN THE BACK-BUILDING REGION OF THE
PRECIP MASS. HI-RES SOLUTIONS ARE UNANIMOUSLY IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING RAPID
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE. A RESERVOIR OF VERY MOIST
AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY ADVECT
NORTH INTO E AR/NW MS/W TN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE INTO
THE MID 60S...PERHAPS UPPER 60S IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...BY NOON.
A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD
THE MID-SOUTH ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. A VOLATILE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH SBCAPE
NEARING 3000 J/KG. THE DEEP LAYER KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
IMPRESSIVE AS WELL WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KTS DEPICTED...MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST SUPERCELLS. FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS...VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL...WITH HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER VERY POSSIBLE. CONCERNING THE TORNADO THREAT...THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS. THE LACK OF A
STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY ALLOW WINDS TO VEER IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL
GUIDANCE HERE. THE 4 KM NAM IS MOST CONCERNING AS IT MAINTAINS A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
THE 0-1 KM SRH FIELD...MAINTAINING GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1
KM SRH. IF THE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN THE 4 KM NAM COMES TO
FRUITION...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT A VEERING OF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR...PERHAPS FAVORING BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL...WINDS...AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING SEASONAL AVERAGES UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

IN THE LONG-TERM...THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY BENIGN.
THE GFS DEPICTS A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERS BETWEEN GLOBAL
MODELS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FINISHED BY 14Z AS INITIAL
DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING WITH SKIES SCATTERING OUT. MVFR/IFR CIGS
EARLY WILL BECOME VFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING
EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPORARY
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND A
RETURN TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE
     AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CHESTER-
     DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
458 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-011200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
458 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL...UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
903 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE JONESBORO          35.80N 90.66W
03/30/2016  M3.48 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            JONESBORO CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTS 3.48 INCHES OF STORM
            TOTAL RAIN.

0931 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S JONESBORO           35.76N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OFFICERS REPORT PORTION OF LAWSON RD WASHED AWAY NEAR SAN
            SOUCI RD

0948 PM     FLASH FLOOD      E JONESBORO             35.82N 90.69W
03/30/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 FEET OF WATER IN A HOME ON THE 2500 BLOCK OF MARY JANE
            STREET IN EAST JONESBORO

1230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      POCAHONTAS              36.26N 90.97W
03/31/2016                   RANDOLPH           AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGHWAY 166 SECTON 1 AT LOG MILE 3.30 IS CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER.

1230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MANILA                  35.88N 90.16W
03/31/2016                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGH WATER OVER 6 INCHES DEEP IN RESIDENTIAL AREAS OF
            MANILA.

1230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
03/31/2016                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAUSED MANY AREAS IN THE CITY
            OF JONESBORO TO FLOOD. SEVERAL STREET AND PARKING LOTS
            FLOODED.

0130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WEINER                  35.62N 90.90W
03/31/2016                   POINSETT           AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER OVER 6 INCHES DEEP IN RESIDENTIAL SECTIONS OF
            WEINER.

0134 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TRUMANN                 35.67N 90.52W
03/31/2016                   POINSETT           AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            OZARK ST BLOCKED OFF DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

MRM