Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
638 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
FORECAST TO EXPAND THE TOR WATCH #60 FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE
SEEN AS WELL. WILL NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION...WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER AR...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS
OF SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET...AS WELL HAS HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUE AIR...HAS MOVED INTO
AR...AND WIDE SPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. FORECAST WILL HAVE
A HIGH PERCENT OF RAIN. ALSO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...AND CURRENT TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT OVER SW AR UNTIL
10 PM. THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...WITH A STRONG
SW UPPER FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPC DAY ONE HAS ENHANCED
AND SLIGHT RISK OVER ALL OF AR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON TO TONIGHT WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL. CURRENT CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER AR SHOULD HOLD INSTABILITY
AT BAY...AND SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT. A VEERING
PROFILE REMAINS OVER AR...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN STILL DO EXPECTED SOME FLASH FLOODING
WITH STORMS DUE TO HIGH WATER CONTENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT
MOVE THROUGH AR UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN A LOWER CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE HELD AFTER FRONT UNTIL THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR
MASS FILTERS IN OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES...COOLING A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

COMPARATIVELY QUIET LONG TERM...AS SUCH HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. LONG TERM BEGINS
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...AT
THIS POINT HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS MOISTURE REMAINS
LACKING. DID GO AND INCLUDE POPS WITH THE NEXT FRONT WEDNESDAY...AS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE A BIT BETTER. HOWEVER DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST WITH THE MODELS AND ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  75  45  65 /  90  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         63  78  49  69 /  90  50  10  10
HARRISON AR       58  71  40  60 /  60  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    62  76  46  66 /  90  30  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  77  47  67 /  90  40  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     64  78  51  69 / 100  70  30   0
MOUNT IDA AR      62  75  44  64 /  80  20   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  75  42  63 /  80  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        61  76  45  66 / 100  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     63  78  49  67 / 100  50  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  76  44  65 /  80  20   0  10
SEARCY AR         62  76  45  66 /  90  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      62  77  47  67 / 100  50  20   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONROE-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

AVIATION...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1010 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-311015-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN-
BRADLEY-DREW-
1010 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
STATE. HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
FLOODING BEING RECEIVED.

WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FIVE INCHES HAVE FALLEN ALONG THE
I30 AND US HIGHWAY 67 AND 167 CORRIDOR. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE
LIKELY FALLEN IN THIS AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BUT GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS MORNING BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT
END COMPLETELY UNTIL THURSDAY. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAIN CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AS MANY AREA
CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH.

SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY CONCERN. TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST THURSDAY MORNING...AND
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE STATE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56/59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
912 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MERONEY                 33.96N 91.73W
03/30/2016                   LINCOLN            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF OF A MOBILE HOME.

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
913 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAMDEN                  33.57N 92.84W
03/30/2016                   OUACHITA           AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            A FEW TREES DOWN WITH ONE FALLING ON A HOUSE AND DAMAGING
            A CAR.

&&

226

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
943 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ065-069-310330-
DESHA AR-DREW AR-
943 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DESHA AND EASTERN DREW
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 943 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LADELLE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTICELLO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONTICELLO...          DUMAS...               ROHWER...
TILLAR...              WATSON...              WINCHESTER...
MCGEHEE...             OMEGA...               LUCCA LANDING...
KELSO...               REED...                PICKENS IN DESHA COU...
MCARTHUR...            ENON...                PENDLETON...
SELMA...               YUKON...               COLLINS...
MORGAN POINT RECREAT...
MASONVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3379 9113 3372 9115 3370 9122 3367 9123
      3357 9145 3340 9171 3353 9186 3379 9160
      3379 9156 3384 9156 3400 9140 3398 9138
      3401 9134 3399 9132 3396 9135 3397 9129
      3378 9107
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 223DEG 38KT 3353 9173

62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1015 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ056-057-064-310400-
ARKANSAS AR-JEFFERSON AR-LINCOLN AR-
1015 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHEASTERN
JEFFERSON AND NORTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1015 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER RICHARDSON...OR 17 MILES EAST OF PINE BLUFF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STUTTGART...           ALMYRA...              ST. CHARLES...
RICHARDSON...          WOODVILLE...           LANGFORD...
DE WITT...             CASSCOE...             CORNERSTONE...
BAYOU METEO STATE GA...
CROCKETTS BLUFF...     LODGE CORNER...
ALMYRA AIRPORT...      ETHEL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 9108 3411 9173 3426 9184 3457 9142
      3456 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 238DEG 45KT 3423 9171

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1024 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ065-310415-
DESHA AR-
1024 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DESHA COUNTY UNTIL 1115
PM CDT...

AT 1023 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MCGEHEE...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF DERMOTT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROHWER...              ARKANSAS CITY...       KELSO...
MCGEHEE...             LUCCA LANDING...       MCARTHUR...
MASONVILLE...          HALLEY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3402 9090 3402 9099 3396 9097 3400 9102
      3398 9109 3393 9101 3384 9107 3378 9099
      3377 9115 3371 9113 3368 9103 3370 9122
      3360 9113 3356 9124 3352 9125 3356 9142
      3366 9145 3411 9103 3410 9088 3409 9087
TIME...MOT...LOC 0323Z 240DEG 37KT 3360 9135

62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1025 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ENGLAND                 34.54N 91.97W
03/30/2016                   LONOKE             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOCAL LAW ENFORECEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS ROADS IN ENGLAND
            WHERE CLOSED AND BARRICADED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

56