Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
638 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
FORECAST TO EXPAND THE TOR WATCH #60 FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE
SEEN AS WELL. WILL NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION...WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER AR...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS
OF SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET...AS WELL HAS HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUE AIR...HAS MOVED INTO
AR...AND WIDE SPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. FORECAST WILL HAVE
A HIGH PERCENT OF RAIN. ALSO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...AND CURRENT TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT OVER SW AR UNTIL
10 PM. THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...WITH A STRONG
SW UPPER FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPC DAY ONE HAS ENHANCED
AND SLIGHT RISK OVER ALL OF AR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON TO TONIGHT WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL. CURRENT CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER AR SHOULD HOLD INSTABILITY
AT BAY...AND SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT. A VEERING
PROFILE REMAINS OVER AR...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN STILL DO EXPECTED SOME FLASH FLOODING
WITH STORMS DUE TO HIGH WATER CONTENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT
MOVE THROUGH AR UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN A LOWER CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE HELD AFTER FRONT UNTIL THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR
MASS FILTERS IN OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES...COOLING A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

COMPARATIVELY QUIET LONG TERM...AS SUCH HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. LONG TERM BEGINS
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...AT
THIS POINT HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS MOISTURE REMAINS
LACKING. DID GO AND INCLUDE POPS WITH THE NEXT FRONT WEDNESDAY...AS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE A BIT BETTER. HOWEVER DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST WITH THE MODELS AND ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  75  45  65 /  90  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         63  78  49  69 /  90  50  10  10
HARRISON AR       58  71  40  60 /  60  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    62  76  46  66 /  90  30  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  77  47  67 /  90  40  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     64  78  51  69 / 100  70  30   0
MOUNT IDA AR      62  75  44  64 /  80  20   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  75  42  63 /  80  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        61  76  45  66 / 100  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     63  78  49  67 / 100  50  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  76  44  65 /  80  20   0  10
SEARCY AR         62  76  45  66 /  90  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      62  77  47  67 / 100  50  20   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONROE-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

AVIATION...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-311015-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN-
BRADLEY-DREW-
345 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE SEEN WITH THE STORMS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
SEEN.

WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS ABOVE
3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE SLOW MOVING STORMS.
ISOLATED AREAS OF 3 INCHES TO AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF RAIN MAY BE
SEEN IF THE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WHILE ANY PART
OF THE STATE COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER...ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTH APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. ALL OF ARKANSAS IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER BUT AREAS SOUTH OF A MENA TO HOT SPRINGS TO STUTTGART
LINE WILL SEE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AND
A TORNADO RISK ALSO EXISTS. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE ENHANCED RISK
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST THURSDAY MORNING...AND
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE STATE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56/59

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
751 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WARD                    35.03N 91.95W
03/30/2016                   LONOKE             AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN WARD.

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
752 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JUDSONIA                35.28N 91.64W
03/30/2016                   WHITE              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERE STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED...WITH NUMEROUS ROADS
            CLOSED.

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
757 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BAUXITE                 34.56N 92.52W
03/30/2016                   SALINE             AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            WATER WAS FLOWING OVER HIGHWAY 183 NEAR BAUXITE HIGH
            SCHOOL.

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
801 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       STEPROCK                35.43N 91.69W
03/30/2016  M4.25 INCH       WHITE              AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
820 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CABOT                   34.97N 92.02W
03/30/2016                   LONOKE             AR   OTHER FEDERAL

            STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN NEIGHBORHOODS AROUND THE
            MOUNT TABOR AREA IN CABOT.

&&

57

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
826 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ056-057-064-310215-
ARKANSAS AR-JEFFERSON AR-LINCOLN AR-
826 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM
CDT...

AT 825 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GRADY...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF STAR CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOULD...               GILLETT...             GRADY...
LITTLE BAYOU METO PA...
WHITEFIELD...          WOODVILLE...
DOUGLAS...             LANGFORD...            MERRISACH LAKE...
SARASSA...             VARNER...              AVERY...
FRESNO...              REYDELL...             BAYOU METEO STATE GA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3406 9125 3401 9141 3401 9142 3400 9143
      3401 9146 3399 9147 3397 9151 3398 9154
      3396 9155 3391 9169 3406 9179 3431 9143
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 237DEG 21KT 3403 9166

44