Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
638 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
FORECAST TO EXPAND THE TOR WATCH #60 FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE
SEEN AS WELL. WILL NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION...WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER AR...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS
OF SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET...AS WELL HAS HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUE AIR...HAS MOVED INTO
AR...AND WIDE SPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. FORECAST WILL HAVE
A HIGH PERCENT OF RAIN. ALSO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...AND CURRENT TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT OVER SW AR UNTIL
10 PM. THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...WITH A STRONG
SW UPPER FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPC DAY ONE HAS ENHANCED
AND SLIGHT RISK OVER ALL OF AR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON TO TONIGHT WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL. CURRENT CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER AR SHOULD HOLD INSTABILITY
AT BAY...AND SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT. A VEERING
PROFILE REMAINS OVER AR...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN STILL DO EXPECTED SOME FLASH FLOODING
WITH STORMS DUE TO HIGH WATER CONTENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT
MOVE THROUGH AR UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVEN A LOWER CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE HELD AFTER FRONT UNTIL THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR
MASS FILTERS IN OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES...COOLING A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

COMPARATIVELY QUIET LONG TERM...AS SUCH HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. LONG TERM BEGINS
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...AT
THIS POINT HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS MOISTURE REMAINS
LACKING. DID GO AND INCLUDE POPS WITH THE NEXT FRONT WEDNESDAY...AS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE A BIT BETTER. HOWEVER DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST WITH THE MODELS AND ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  75  45  65 /  90  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         63  78  49  69 /  90  50  10  10
HARRISON AR       58  71  40  60 /  60  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    62  76  46  66 /  90  30  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  77  47  67 /  90  40  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     64  78  51  69 / 100  70  30   0
MOUNT IDA AR      62  75  44  64 /  80  20   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  75  42  63 /  80  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        61  76  45  66 / 100  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     63  78  49  67 / 100  50  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  76  44  65 /  80  20   0  10
SEARCY AR         62  76  45  66 /  90  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      62  77  47  67 / 100  50  20   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONROE-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

AVIATION...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-311015-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN-
BRADLEY-DREW-
345 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE SEEN WITH THE STORMS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
SEEN.

WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS ABOVE
3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE SLOW MOVING STORMS.
ISOLATED AREAS OF 3 INCHES TO AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF RAIN MAY BE
SEEN IF THE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WHILE ANY PART
OF THE STATE COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER...ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTH APPEARS
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. ALL OF ARKANSAS IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER BUT AREAS SOUTH OF A MENA TO HOT SPRINGS TO STUTTGART
LINE WILL SEE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AND
A TORNADO RISK ALSO EXISTS. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE ENHANCED RISK
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST THURSDAY MORNING...AND
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE STATE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56/59

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
514 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ053-062-066-302300-
OUACHITA AR-DALLAS AR-CLARK AR-
514 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DALLAS AND CENTRAL OUACHITA
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 514 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
POISON SPRINGS STATE PARK...OR 8 MILES WEST OF CAMDEN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMDEN...              SPARKMAN...            CARTHAGE...
CHIDESTER...           POISON SPRINGS STATE...
AMY...
TATES BLUFF...         HOLLY SPRINGS...       PINE GROVE...
WARNER...              WILLOW...              OUACHITA...
TULIP...               LESTER...              BUNN...
BRAGG CITY...          PRINCETON...           MANNING...
BUENA VISTA...         HARMONY GROVE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3353 9311 3354 9311 3415 9278 3415 9271
      3407 9246 3406 9243 3405 9247 3401 9247
      3343 9293
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 210DEG 46KT 3356 9298

62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
551 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E CONWAY              35.09N 92.43W
03/30/2016                   FAULKNER           AR   PUBLIC

            APPROXIMATELY 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER HAVE BEEN REPORTED

            AT THE INTERSECTION OF 1ST AVE. AND OAK STREET IN CONWAY.

0550 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BATESVILLE              35.77N 91.64W
03/30/2016                   INDEPENDENCE       AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CARS HAVE BECOME STALLED DUE TO HIGH WATER OVER ROADS IN
            BATEVILLE.

&&

224

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
612 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ025-310000-
JACKSON AR-
612 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM CDT...

AT 612 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES STATE
PARK TO NEAR TUCKERMAN TO NEWPORT...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWPORT...             TUCKERMAN...           DIAZ...
SWIFTON...             GRUBBS...              JACKSONPORT...
CAMPBELL STATION...    AMAGON...              BALCH...
STEGALL...             ERWIN...               KENYON...

LAT...LON 3552 9135 3573 9127 3578 9127 3582 9124
      3583 9124 3586 9122 3586 9121 3588 9122
      3589 9120 3589 9104 3551 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 247DEG 37KT 3600 9116 3577 9117 3561 9124

65

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
617 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LITTLE ROCK             34.73N 92.27W
03/30/2016                   PULASKI            AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED AT WAR MEMORIAL PARK.

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
648 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE OTTER CREEK       34.68N 92.42W
03/30/2016  M3.60 INCH       PULASKI            AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR.

0635 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ESE DESHA             35.73N 91.64W
03/30/2016  M3.92 INCH       INDEPENDENCE       AR   AWOS

            3.92 INCHES HAVE FALLEN SO FAR AT THE BATESVILLE AIRPORT.

0630 PM     HEAVY RAIN       N LITTLE ROCK ARPT      34.83N 92.26W
03/30/2016  M3.41 INCH       PULASKI            AR   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR.

&&

62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
702 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ056-063-064-068-069-310045-
JEFFERSON AR-BRADLEY AR-LINCOLN AR-DREW AR-CLEVELAND AR-
702 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BRADLEY...SOUTH
CENTRAL JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN DREW...WESTERN LINCOLN AND EASTERN
CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 702 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WARREN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WARREN...              STAR CITY...           WILMAR...
WHITEFIELD...          CANE CREEK STATE PAR...
BRANDON...
HERBINE...             PLANTERSVILLE...       NEBO...
FEENYVILLE...          ROCK SPRINGS...        PINEBERGEN...
GLENDALE IN LINCOLN ...
PALMYRA...             TARRY...
RELFS BLUFF...         CALHOUN...             FRESNO...
GARNETT...             RYE...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3353 9201 3361 9217 3415 9206 3403 9159
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 203DEG 45KT 3360 9209

65