Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
258 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Forecast highlights: Severe storms and heavy rain this afternoon-
evening, much cooler Friday, quiet weather through Sunday, and
periodic slight chances for showers/storms Sunday night through
next week.

Strong upper shortwave and associated strong cold front
interacting with a very moist and strongly unstable airmass will
support scattered to eventually widespread thunderstorms
developing this afternoon-evening. The greatest threat area will
be generally along/east of a line extending from Lincoln--Lyons--
Kingman--Harper, and generally along/west of the Flint Hills.
Storms are expected to develop by 3-4pm on that western fringe,
reaching Wichita metro around 5-6pm, and southeast Kansas by
7-9pm. Initial activity over central/south-central Kansas
along/west of the Flint Hills will have the greatest severe
potential, with strong instability and deep layer shear supporting
a few supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds and
possibly a tornado or two. However, given strong cold frontal
forcing, threat should transition to a squall line or line
segments within the first 2-3 hours of initiation, with the
primary threats then becoming straight-line winds and marginally
severe hail, although given strong shear will likely still see
embedded rotating updrafts and isolated occurrences of larger
hail, along with the outside chance of an isolated tornado. Severe
threat should wane even more by 9pm generally east/southeast of
the Flint Hills given diurnal cooling and decreasing instability.
However, given heavy rainfall that already fell over southeast
Kansas this morning into the afternoon, additional heavy rainfall
could aggravate ongoing flooding concerns over southeast Kansas.
Will continue the flood watch over far southeast Kansas overnight.

Otherwise, quiet and cooler weather expected this weekend, as
high pressure settles south across Mid-America. Highs on Friday
will only be in the 60s, with lows Friday night reach around 40
degrees. Consequently, cannot rule out out patchy frost for low-
lying and sheltered area, but thinking coverage will be too sparse
to include in forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

A handful of ripples within the zonal flow aloft should support a
periodic chances for showers/storms Sunday night/Monday, and again
Tuesday night/Wednesday. Likely not looking at widespread
activity, and lack of instability will likely preclude severe
storms. Temperatures will be seasonal in the 70s, with overnight
lows in the 40s and 50s this weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Main Aviation Concerns: Thunderstorm potential, stratus potential,
wind shift behind a cold front.

Scattered thunderstorms may continue into much of the afternoon
over southeast Kansas with 850 moisture/instability transport
occurring to the north of an outflow boundary. Have a VCTS mention
at CNU terminal through 20Z for now.

A cold front and pre-frontal dryline/trough axis will shift into
central/south-central Kansas in the 20Z-00Z time-frame, likely
sparking scattered strong to severe storms with wind and hail
threats. The storms will form into a linear complex as they move
through the Flint Hills/Southeast KS this evening, with a threat
of strong-severe wind gusts. Have included a tempo TSRA group at
ICT and VCTS at CNU, but will likely need to upgrade CNU to a
Tempo TSRA soon. South winds will shift to northwesterly behind
the cold front with gusts around 25 knots expected for several
hours behind the frontal passage. A large stratus shield over
Nebraska and northwest Kansas, should spread into the central
Kansas terminals through this evening, and perhaps further
southeast tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  65  42  71 /  60   0   0   0
Hutchinson      43  64  40  71 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          43  63  41  70 /  40   0   0   0
ElDorado        44  64  41  71 /  80   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   48  65  41  71 /  80  10   0   0
Russell         37  65  39  73 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      38  66  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          42  65  39  72 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       42  64  39  71 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     52  66  41  73 /  80  20   0   0
Chanute         49  64  41  71 /  90  10   0   0
Iola            49  64  41  70 /  90  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    50  66  41  72 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ093>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
550 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     TORNADO          1 N HUMBOLDT            37.83N 95.44W
10/06/2016                   ALLEN              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN WITH TREE DAMAGE.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
552 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     TSTM WND GST     IOLA                    37.93N 95.40W
10/06/2016  E70.00 MPH       ALLEN              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
607 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSZ052-053-068-069-083-091-092-062330-
SEDGWICK KS-CHASE KS-HARVEY KS-HARPER KS-MARION KS-SUMNER KS-
BUTLER KS-
607 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  CHASE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN HARVEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN HARPER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  WESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 604 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF BURDICK TO NEAR MANCHESTER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WICHITA...DERBY...EL DORADO...ANDOVER...HAYSVILLE...AUGUSTA...
  WELLINGTON...PARK CITY...VALLEY CENTER...BEL AIRE...MULVANE...
  GODDARD...ROSE HILL...MAIZE...CLEARWATER...BELLE PLAINE...
  TOWANDA...CONWAY SPRINGS...PEABODY AND CALDWELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUES BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL... CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3852 9680 3852 9636 3840 9636 3705 9748
      3700 9812
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 240DEG 41KT 3850 9680 3706 9804

MCGUIRE