Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
652 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Storms continue to develop in Southeast KS, with latest short
term models suggesting this will persist into midday and some
suggesting it will continue well into this afternoon. This casts
considerable uncertainty on the severe threat east of I-35, i.e.,
how much recovery can occur. While dew points have dropped into
the lower 60s in SE KS, near 70 dewpoints persist across Eastern
OK. That said, several convection allowing models keep cold pool
over most of South Central/Southeast KS throughout the afternoon.
However there seems to be a decent signal for the area west of
this mornings persistent convection, i.e., west of EWK-ICT-EGT to
significantly recover just ahead of dryline. If convection can
develop on dryline, large hail/damaging winds would be likely and
an isolated tornado could not be ruled out. Cold front will
quickly overtake dryline and storms will likely become linear
with threat evolving into a squall line. However quality of
moisture return east of I-35 is uncertain with front rapidly
surging southeast this evening. -Howerton

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Today-tonight:
Light east southeast flow and clear skies allowed good combo
radiational cooling upslope flow fog across Central KS. Areas from
SLN-HUT-9K8 have had sufficient cirrus to limit fog so far.
Watching this area closely for trends/clearing. If that area
clears before daybreak, will expand dense fog advisory. Storms
will likely persist into mid morning given good diffluence -- as
long as warm air advection persists. Focus then shifts to
afternoon convection. Models fairly evenly split whether storms
will develop over Flint Hills/Southeast KS well in advance of
front, or whether they will just be anchored in the vicinity of
cold front. Do expect narrow dry slot to work ahead of front,
which will boost temperatures across parts of Central KS. Strong
cold air advection in wake of front will result in falling
afternoon temperatures for a good part of Central KS. Storms will
persist tonight mainly east of I-35. Progressive nature of front
should limit rainfall/flooding concerns assuming extensive heavy
rain does not occur this afternoon in Southeast KS. Precipitation
will exit all but extreme Southeast KS by daybreak Friday.

Friday-Saturday:

Except for lingering rain showers/thunderstorm in extreme Southeast
KS right at start of period, dry and cooler temperatures are
expected on Friday and Saturday. Highs on Friday will be well below
normal. Concerned that forecast lows may be as much as 5 degrees
too warm for Saturday morning. Suspect there will be some patchy
frost in protected areas, most likely over flint hills. Limiting
factors will be relatively warm/moist ground and potential for
weak return flow west of i-35 during the night. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Otherwise moderating temperatures for most of this period. Best
chance albeit small of precipitation will be Sunday night into
Monday with the return moisture and shortwave passage. Rather
large discrepancy for Tuesday-Wednesday as GFS is as much as 150
miles south of ECMWF with position of the next cold front. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Poor aviation conditions will linger across central Kansas this
morning with dense fog/low cigs, conditions will gradually improve
with southerly winds on the increase across the entire area.
Showers/storms over southeast Kansas will persist through the
morning as well. Meanwhile a strong cold front will race southward
across the region for this afternoon into this evening. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will accompany the front across south central
and southeast Kansas later today. Northerly winds will increase
behind the front with skies clearing out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    85  47  65  43 /  60  50  10   0
Hutchinson      85  44  65  40 /  20  30   0   0
Newton          83  44  64  42 /  60  50  10   0
ElDorado        84  46  65  43 /  60  70  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   85  48  65  43 /  80  80  10   0
Russell         78  37  65  39 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      82  39  66  39 /  10  10   0   0
Salina          86  41  65  40 /  20  20   0   0
McPherson       84  42  64  40 /  20  30   0   0
Coffeyville     87  52  66  42 /  90  80  20   0
Chanute         85  50  65  42 /  90  80  10   0
Iola            84  50  64  42 /  80  80  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    86  51  66  42 /  90  80  10   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ032-033-
047-048-050.

&&

MESOSCALE...PJH
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...CDJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
529 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-071030-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
529 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING. CHECK THE LATEST
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE
MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-35. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FLOODING FROM
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF A SOUTHEAST
ADVANCING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HUTCHINSON
TO ARKANSAS CITY. HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL WOULD INITIALLY BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...WITH DAMAGING 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS BECOMING THE
PRIMARY THREAT AS THE THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL
LINE THURSDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

HOWERTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
630 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 AM     FLOOD            5 NW DENNIS             37.40N 95.48W
10/06/2016                   NEOSHO             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROADWAYS.

&&

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
835 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 AM     FLOOD            INDEPENDENCE            37.23N 95.71W
10/06/2016                   MONTGOMERY         KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR STREET FLOODING IN THE TOWN OF INDEPENDENCE. 2.90
            INCHES OF RAINFALL REPORTED AT INDEPENDENCE CITY HALL.

&&

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
932 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WSW INDEPENDENCE      37.21N 95.75W
10/06/2016                   MONTGOMERY         KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER FLOWING OVER SOUTH 10TH STREET NEAR ROCK CREEK

&&

METZGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1116 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSZ100-061645-
LABETTE KS-
1116 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  LABETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT

* AT 1113 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL 6 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF EDNA...OR 11 MILES EAST OF COFFEYVILLE...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PARSONS...OSWEGO...CHETOPA...ALTAMONT...EDNA...MOUND VALLEY...
  BARTLETT...LABETTE...ANGOLA...PARSONS TRI CITY AIRPORT...
  BIG HILL LAKE AND DENNIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9552 3738 9552 3738 9508 3700 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1615Z 234DEG 33KT 3699 9544

METZGER