Wind Advisory 6, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Bell County, TX, Collin County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Tarrant County, TX

055 
WWUS74 KFWD 300736
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
236 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

TXZ092>094-103>105-118>121-133-134-145>147-158>162-174-175-300845-
/O.CAN.KFWD.WI.Y.0006.160330T1800Z-160331T0000Z/
COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-
KAUFMAN-JOHNSON-ELLIS-HILL-NAVARRO-FREESTONE-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...SHERMAN...DENISON...
BONHAM...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...
ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...
WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...HILLSBORO...
CORSICANA...TEAGUE...FAIRFIELD...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...
WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...
JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...
CALVERT
236 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE BREEZY BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
644 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME HAS EVOLVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEEPENING UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXISTS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EJECT EASTWARD FROM NEAR THE
GREAT BASIN LOW AND PROPAGATE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AROUND
THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE A DRY
LINE OVER WEST TEXAS TO SURGE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO ARRIVE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS...SO ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP PRIOR TO 18Z JUST SOUTHEAST OF AREA
TAF SITES WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE RESIDE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH AREA IN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. THERE COULD BE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THUNDER IN THE METROPLEX IN LATER
FORECASTS...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL INDICATE PREVAILING -TSRA
BEGINNING 22Z BASED ON SOME OF THE MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE. TIMING WILL BE SIMILAR FOR KACT...THOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN AREAS OVER NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER
00Z AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST OF THE PLAINS.

FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
LEAD TO LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH IFR BECOMING A GOOD POSSIBILITY
PRIOR TO 30/12Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE SOME DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 31/12Z.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016/
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT CURRENTLY SEEING ANYTHING ON RADAR...WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERSPREAD NORTH-CENTRAL TX AROUND AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY...BUT WITH CLOUDS AND THE LIGHT RAIN...IT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK OR JUST PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. WITH ONLY MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL EARLY BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION TOMORROW WILL BE HOW THE EARLY ACTIVITY
IMPACTS DYNAMICS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW...MODELS
INDICATE ENOUGH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME ANY EARLIER ACTIVITY AND STORMS SHOULD BE INTENSIFYING
AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
DRYLINE SHIFTS TO AROUND THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS SUCH...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
AND THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. HAIL WILL BE THE DOMINANT THREAT WITH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY WE MAY STILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BUT THOSE SHOULD BE
USHERED QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS
THROUGH. AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH ON
FRIDAY...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND COULD
POSSIBLY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AND THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING THINGS DRY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY
WARM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  78  56  72  48 /  30  60  30  10   5
WACO, TX              65  79  57  74  49 /  30  60  30  10   5
PARIS, TX             61  73  56  70  45 /  30  80  60  10   5
DENTON, TX            64  77  52  70  44 /  40  60  20   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          63  76  55  70  45 /  40  70  30  10   5
DALLAS, TX            66  78  57  73  49 /  30  60  30  10   5
TERRELL, TX           64  76  57  72  47 /  30  70  40  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         65  78  60  73  49 /  30  70  40  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            66  79  59  75  49 /  30  50  30  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  81  51  72  44 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
322 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG. SMALL HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
WEATHER HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE TWO AREAS OF CONCENTRATION FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...ONE ALONG THE DRYLINE LOCATED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
AND THE OTHER IN THE WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
DRYLINE...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN BOTH AREAS AND SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT OVERTAKES THE
DRYLINE AND MOVES IT EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL END THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
VERY LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.