Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Fort Worth, TX

343 
WGUS74 KFWD 310116
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
816 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

TXC193-310126-
/O.CAN.KFWD.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160331T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAMILTON TX-
816 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO
POSE A THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3184 9816 3189 9819 3190 9819 3190 9792
      3173 9783 3175 9833

$$

92

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
243 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH THE DRYLINE MIXING
EAST TOWARD WICHITA FALLS AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
SWEETWATER. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD
OVER THE AREA AND SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM LIFTING SURFACE BASED
PARCELS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE 18Z FWD
SOUNDING DID INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF TWO WEAK CAPS...LIKELY THE
RESULT OF SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF SEVERE PARAMETERS INDICATES THAT MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS IS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE WITH
POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY IN AREAS WHERE THE SUN HAS PEAKED
OUT. WIDESPREAD INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHICH WILL SUPPORT
MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT A VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED INITIALLY OWING
TO GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A BACKED MID LEVEL WIND
PROFILE. THE WIND PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS CONTINUE EAST SO THIS
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

CONCERNING THE FORECAST...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE METROPLEX ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND NORTH TO THE
RED RIVER THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A PROGRESSION RATHER QUICKLY
INTO THE ARKLATEX BY MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT...AS THE MAIN TROUGH
REMAINS TO THE WEST...WE WILL STILL BE IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
ASCENT. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE BRING A SLUG OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF THIS PANS OUT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL IN PLACE...ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP. HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS LATE
OVERNIGHT.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES. THE NICE WEATHER
WILL BE BRIEF AS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONGER TROUGH
ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST DURING THIS TIME SENDING A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO BE RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AREAWIDE. IN ADDITION...SOME WEAK ASCENT WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20
PERCENT.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 70S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. MOST OF
NEXT WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND THE REMAINING STORMS
EXTENDED EAST OF A PARIS TO WAXAHACHIE TO LAMPASAS LINE
AS OF 1730Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
THE NEXT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE METROPLEX AND WACO
TAF SITES WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE THAT
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TO EAST OF KCDS /CHILDRESS/ TO
KBPG /BIG SPRING/ AT 1730Z. THE CURRENT TIMING HAS THESE STORMS
AFFECTING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES 22Z-01Z...AND 00Z-03Z AT WACO.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS
AND VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

THE STORM THREAT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO THE METROPLEX...BUT STRATUS MAY COME BACK IN FOR THE 06 TO 15Z
PERIOD AT WACO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX
TOWARD SUNRISE /12Z/ WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. THE WIND SHIFT AT WACO WILL 13 TO 15Z.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  49  63  44 /  50  10   5  20  10
WACO, TX              60  76  49  64  43 /  40   5   5  20  10
PARIS, TX             60  74  46  64  41 /  70  10   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            54  73  43  62  40 /  40   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          57  73  44  63  41 /  60  10   5  20  10
DALLAS, TX            60  75  48  63  45 /  50  10   5  20  10
TERRELL, TX           60  73  48  65  43 /  70  10   5  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         63  76  51  66  45 /  60  10   5  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            62  78  50  65  44 /  30   5   5  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  74  44  62  39 /  20   5   5  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-311200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
340 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
A DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. A
FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
556 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             9 N HAMILTON            31.83N  98.12W
03/30/2016  E1.25 INCH       HAMILTON           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL FROM QUARTER OF AN INCH UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED
            HAIL GUST UP TO 60MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             BRIAROAKS               32.49N  97.30W
03/30/2016  E1.25 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL IN BRIAROAKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
624 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             4 NE HAMILTON           31.74N  98.07W
03/30/2016  E1.00 INCH       HAMILTON           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH HAIL 4 MILES NE OF HAMILTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             1 S LILLIAN             32.49N  97.20W
03/30/2016  E1.75 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL JUST SOUTH OF LILIAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
632 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     TSTM WND GST     VENUS                   32.43N  97.12W
03/30/2016  M60 MPH          JOHNSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            60 MPH WIND MEASURED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
641 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     DALLAS                  32.77N  96.78W
03/30/2016  E65 MPH          DALLAS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            65 MPH WIND SPEED IN DALLAS NORTHEAST OF I35 AND EAST
            8TH STREET