Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1247 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND THE REMAINING STORMS
EXTENDED EAST OF A PARIS TO WAXAHACHIE TO LAMPASAS LINE
AS OF 1730Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
THE NEXT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE METROPLEX AND WACO
TAF SITES WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE THAT
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TO EAST OF KCDS /CHILDRESS/ TO
KBPG /BIG SPRING/ AT 1730Z. THE CURRENT TIMING HAS THESE STORMS
AFFECTING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES 22Z-01Z...AND 00Z-03Z AT WACO.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS
AND VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

THE STORM THREAT WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO THE METROPLEX...BUT STRATUS MAY COME BACK IN FOR THE 06 TO 15Z
PERIOD AT WACO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX
TOWARD SUNRISE /12Z/ WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. THE WIND SHIFT AT WACO WILL 13 TO 15Z.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST REGARDING POP
CONFIGURATION AND GENERAL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH LATE EVENING. AN
AREA OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY CONTINUES MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE
35 THIS MORNING. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND IS PRIMARILY ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WE WILL BE SENDING
UP AN 18Z SOUNDING BUT AN INITIAL LOOK AT AN AIRCRAFT SOUNDING
FROM DALLAS ABOUT 45 MINUTES AGO REVEALS THAT THE STRONG CAPPING
NOTED ON THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING HAS BEEN LIFTED. THERE WAS A
NOTICEABLE AREA OF COLD ADVECTION BETWEEN 800-600MB IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING CONVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY HELPING TO SUPPRESS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR THE TIME BEING DESPITE WHAT APPEARS TO
BE INCREASING ASCENT APPROACHING THE AREA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE DRYLINE IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX EAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WE STILL
THINK ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. THIS WILL ALSO BE COINCIDENT
WITH A GENERAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY OF ANY CONVECTION WELL EAST OF
THE DRYLINE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LAPSE RATES
ARE VERY STEEP. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS
SEVERAL KEY INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER COME TOGETHER. THESE
INGREDIENTS INCLUDE...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE SCALE LIFT SUPPLIED BY AN APPROACHING
150+ KNOT JET AND SMALLER SCALE LIFT GENERATED BY AN EASTWARD
MOVING DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MULTIPLE SCENARIOS WITH REGARDS
TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS AS FOLLOWS:

1- ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR WHERE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE THE STRONGEST. THESE
STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE BUT WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT.

2 - THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND STRONGER BY
LATE MORNING AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. ONCE
THE CAP IS GONE...STORMS WILL BECOME MORE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A MEDLEY OF HAZARDS INCLUDING HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

3 - BY LATE AFTERNOON A DRYLINE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ZONES AND
BECOME AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE EXTENT OF
MORNING CONVECTION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW EXTENSIVE STORMS
ARE ON THE DRYLINE. WE STILL ANTICIPATE THAT STORMS WILL BE
ONGOING IN THE EAST WHEN THE DRYLINE ENTERS THE REGION. STORMS
BOTH ON THE DRYLINE AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL
TO BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING.

4 - BY LATE EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AND WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE. WHEN THIS OCCURS STORMS
WILL END STEADILY FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL STILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.

AGAIN...WHAT IS DESCRIBED ABOVE IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR
TODAY/TONIGHTS EVENTS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHAT COMPLICATES TODAYS FORECAST AND ANY SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT FOR THAT MATTER IS MESO-SCALE PROCESSES THAT ARE
DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO ANTICIPATE. SO THE MESSAGE FOR
TODAY IS THIS...BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP AT ANY
TIME TODAY/TONIGHT. SINCE THE KEY INGREDIENTS (MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY...LIFT AND SHEAR) WILL ALL BE PRESENT...ANY STORM THAT
FORMS WILL HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
MORNING BUT OVERALL THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...A BIT BREEZY
AND PLEASANT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHEN A CUT-OFF
LOW OPENS UP AND TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. ALL SHOWERS
WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS VERY PLEASANT DUE TO A
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND ONLY A PARTIAL RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE GENERALLY
IN THE 70S WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  58  73  49  63 /  70  50  10   5  20
WACO, TX              79  58  75  49  67 /  60  50  10   5  20
PARIS, TX             74  58  72  45  63 /  90  50  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            79  53  71  45  61 /  60  40   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          77  56  72  45  62 /  80  50  10   5  10
DALLAS, TX            79  59  73  49  63 /  70  50  10   5  20
TERRELL, TX           76  59  73  48  65 /  80  50  10   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         78  61  75  50  67 /  80  50  20   5  20
TEMPLE, TX            78  61  76  49  66 /  50  50  10   5  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  52  72  45  61 /  40  20   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

58/91

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-310900-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
313 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS AND A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE
WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

AT LEAST TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS FIRST
ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS BUT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY.

STORMS FROM THE FIRST ROUND MAY STILL BE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON TO
THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35/35E AS THE SECOND ROUND DEVELOPS. THIS
SECOND ROUND WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE DRYLINE WEST OF INTERSTATE
35/35W. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT OVERTAKES
THE DRYLINE AND MOVES IT EAST THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING EAST OF
A LINE FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO WACO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

JLDUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
140 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

TXZ115-301900-
STEPHENS TX-
140 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN STEPHENS COUNTY
UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 140 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
IBEX...OR 10 MILES WEST OF BRECKENRIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRECKENRIDGE AND US-180 NEAR THE SHACKELFORD-STEPHENS COUNTY LINE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3285 9910 3293 9897 3270 9881 3261 9910
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 240DEG 16KT 3273 9908

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
145 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             KERENS                  32.13N  96.23W
03/30/2016  E0.75 INCH       NAVARRO            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
146 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

TXZ135-146-301900-
NAVARRO TX-HENDERSON TX-
146 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NAVARRO AND WESTERN
HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 146 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
THAT WAS PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL NEAR KERENS...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF
GUN BARREL CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...MABANK...MALAKOFF...TOOL...KERENS...EUSTACE...
TRINIDAD...ENCHANTED OAKS...CANEY CITY...PAYNE SPRINGS...LOG CABIN...
MURCHISON...STAR HARBOR...GOODLOW AND POWELL.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3195 9618 3212 9633 3236 9615 3235 9563
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 226DEG 61KT 3217 9611

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
205 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

TXZ122-135-301945-
VAN ZANDT TX-HENDERSON TX-
205 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VAN ZANDT AND NORTH
CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 205 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
EUSTACE...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF ATHENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...CANTON...MALAKOFF...EUSTACE...EDOM...ENCHANTED
OAKS...CANEY CITY...PURTIS CREEK STATE PARK...PAYNE SPRINGS...LOG CABIN
AND MURCHISON.

LAT...LON 3213 9597 3226 9612 3260 9581 3241 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 224DEG 30KT 3225 9599

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
221 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 PM     HAIL             5 NW BRECKENRIDGE       32.80N  98.96W
03/30/2016  E2.50 INCH       STEPHENS           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT HUBBARD CREEK LAKE