Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Fort Worth, TX

634 
WWUS54 KFWD 171541
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1041 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

TXC085-171600-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-160317T1600Z/
COLLIN TX-
1041 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL COLLIN COUNTY...

AT 1041 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FARMERSVILLE...
OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF WYLIE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FARMERSVILLE AND BLUE RIDGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3335 9630 3312 9630 3315 9643 3326 9647
TIME...MOT...LOC 1541Z 251DEG 26KT 3322 9639 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

JLDUNN

311 
WWUS54 KFWD 171553
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1053 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

TXC085-171602-
/O.EXP.KFWD.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-160317T1600Z/
COLLIN TX-
1053 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL COLLIN COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 1100 AM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND HAVE EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM. IF THIS STORM REINTENSIFIES...A NEW WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED FOR NORTHERN HUNT COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3335 9630 3312 9630 3315 9643 3326 9647
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 250DEG 24KT 3322 9639 

$$

JLDUNN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
740 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

PRIMARY CONCERN...TIMING PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. COMANCHE...WACO...AND PALESTINE ARE IN THE HUMID
AIR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOW
HAS BEEN GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...THIS MOIST/WARM
ADVECTION HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
THESE ARE AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE ALOFT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AID
IN STORM MAINTENANCE THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...UNTIL IT
PASSES TO THE EAST. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE WACO MAY SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.

UPGLIDE ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION THIS EVENING...COUPLED WITH
MOISTENING EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WILL RESULT IN
DETERIORATING CEILINGS/VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. FOR WACO...A
SIMILAR BUT DELAYED DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY...THE TIME FRAME FOR WHICH WILL BE
ASSESSED WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND IS WORKING ITS WAY EAST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT APPEARED TO EXTEND ALONG A LINE FROM
BRECKENRIDGE TO PALESTINE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THESE CELLS
WORK THEIR WAY EAST INTO THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA...SO AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. STORMS
MAY WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE METROPLEX...BUT WILL STILL POSE A
THREAT FOR AT LEAST SMALL HAIL...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION FROM THE ELEVATED STORMS NORTH
OF THE I-20 REGION TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...BUT WEAKER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL..A FEW STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE IMPULSE RACES TOWARDS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE WARMER AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY WHEN THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR IF CONVECTION BECOMES
ORGANIZED ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING AN END TO OUR RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A WARM-UP DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...THEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA ABOUT A WEEK FROM TODAY.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  56  66  46  59 /  30  40  50  50  10
WACO, TX              73  59  71  47  60 /  50  40  50  60  20
PARIS, TX             69  51  64  43  58 /  30  40  50  50  10
DENTON, TX            66  53  63  43  58 /  30  40  50  50  10
MCKINNEY, TX          68  53  64  44  58 /  30  40  50  50  10
DALLAS, TX            68  57  66  46  59 /  30  40  50  50  10
TERRELL, TX           70  55  67  46  59 /  30  40  50  50  10
CORSICANA, TX         72  59  71  48  60 /  40  40  50  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            75  61  73  48  61 /  50  40  50  60  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  54  63  42  58 /  40  30  50  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

25/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
525 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS ARE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY ELEVATED. AS A RESULT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE...BUT
WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. IN THE
HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SURFACE-BASED...WHICH MEANS THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...INADEQUATE SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY LARGELY
UNORGANIZED...LIMITING THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REDEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT...IN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR APPEAR MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A SQUALL LINE IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON IN
AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
928 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     HAIL             4 S WHITESBORO          33.59N  96.92W
03/17/2016  E1.50 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED
            HAIL 4 MILES SOUTH OF WHITESBORO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
944 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 AM     HAIL             6 W DENTON              33.22N  97.25W
03/17/2016  E1.75 INCH       DENTON             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL 6 MILES WEST OF DENTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
947 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 AM     HAIL             4 W DENTON              33.22N  97.22W
03/17/2016  E0.88 INCH       DENTON             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT 380 & 156

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
955 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

TXZ092-171530-
COOKE TX-
955 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COOKE COUNTY UNTIL
1030 AM CDT...

AT 954 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LINDSAY...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GAINESVILLE...LAKE KIOWA AND VALLEY VIEW.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 485 AND 497.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3362 9694 3342 9695 3342 9698 3350 9734
      3361 9733 3369 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 1454Z 266DEG 46KT 3355 9725

JLDUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1016 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

TXZ105-106-171600-
HUNT TX-DELTA TX-
1016 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HUNT AND NORTHWESTERN
DELTA COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

AT 1016 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CELESTE...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...WOLFE CITY...CELESTE...PECAN GAP AND
NEYLANDVILLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3327 9578 3315 9615 3332 9622 3339 9604
      3341 9586 3346 9586 3346 9583 3348 9579
      3330 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 1516Z 250DEG 32KT 3327 9611

JLDUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1017 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

TXZ104-105-171600-
HUNT TX-COLLIN TX-
1017 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COLLIN AND
NORTHWESTERN HUNT COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

AT 1017 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER LOWRY CROSSING...OR NEAR MCKINNEY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCKINNEY...ALLEN...GREENVILLE...FAIRVIEW...PRINCETON...LUCAS...
FARMERSVILLE...LOWRY CROSSING...CELESTE AND NEW HOPE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3337 9617 3317 9607 3308 9663 3320 9666
TIME...MOT...LOC 1517Z 249DEG 32KT 3317 9658

JLDUNN