Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
740 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

PRIMARY CONCERN...TIMING PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS.

AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. COMANCHE...WACO...AND PALESTINE ARE IN THE HUMID
AIR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOW
HAS BEEN GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...THIS MOIST/WARM
ADVECTION HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
THESE ARE AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE ALOFT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AID
IN STORM MAINTENANCE THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...UNTIL IT
PASSES TO THE EAST. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN THE HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE WACO MAY SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.

UPGLIDE ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION THIS EVENING...COUPLED WITH
MOISTENING EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WILL RESULT IN
DETERIORATING CEILINGS/VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. FOR WACO...A
SIMILAR BUT DELAYED DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY...THE TIME FRAME FOR WHICH WILL BE
ASSESSED WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND IS WORKING ITS WAY EAST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT APPEARED TO EXTEND ALONG A LINE FROM
BRECKENRIDGE TO PALESTINE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THESE CELLS
WORK THEIR WAY EAST INTO THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA...SO AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. STORMS
MAY WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE METROPLEX...BUT WILL STILL POSE A
THREAT FOR AT LEAST SMALL HAIL...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION FROM THE ELEVATED STORMS NORTH
OF THE I-20 REGION TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...BUT WEAKER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL..A FEW STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE IMPULSE RACES TOWARDS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE WARMER AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY WHEN THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR IF CONVECTION BECOMES
ORGANIZED ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING AN END TO OUR RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A WARM-UP DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...THEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA ABOUT A WEEK FROM TODAY.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  56  66  46  59 /  30  40  50  50  10
WACO, TX              73  59  71  47  60 /  50  40  50  60  20
PARIS, TX             69  51  64  43  58 /  30  40  50  50  10
DENTON, TX            66  53  63  43  58 /  30  40  50  50  10
MCKINNEY, TX          68  53  64  44  58 /  30  40  50  50  10
DALLAS, TX            68  57  66  46  59 /  30  40  50  50  10
TERRELL, TX           70  55  67  46  59 /  30  40  50  50  10
CORSICANA, TX         72  59  71  48  60 /  40  40  50  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            75  61  73  48  61 /  50  40  50  60  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  54  63  42  58 /  40  30  50  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

25/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
525 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS ARE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY ELEVATED. AS A RESULT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE...BUT
WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. IN THE
HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SURFACE-BASED...WHICH MEANS THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...INADEQUATE SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY LARGELY
UNORGANIZED...LIMITING THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REDEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT...IN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR APPEAR MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A SQUALL LINE IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON IN
AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
805 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 AM     HAIL             ALRLINGTON              32.73N  97.12W
03/17/2016  E1.50 INCH       TARRANT            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AT THE CORNER OF EARLE ST AND
            PERKINS RD IN ARLINGTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
808 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 AM     HAIL             ARLINGTON               32.73N  97.12W
03/17/2016  E1.75 INCH       TARRANT            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN SOUTH ARLINGTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
813 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HAIL             ARLINGTON               32.73N  97.12W
03/17/2016  E0.75 INCH       TARRANT            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME SIZE HAIL IN UTA CAMPUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
820 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HAIL             FORT WORTH              32.75N  97.34W
03/17/2016  E2.00 INCH       TARRANT            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            MEDSTAR HQ REPORTS 11 AMBULANCES TAKEN OUT OF SERVICE
            DUE TO HAIL DAMAGE WHILE IN FIELD. 12 MORE AT HQ DAMAGED
            AND OUT OF SERVICE. HAIL SIZE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 2
            INCHES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
829 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     HAIL             GRAND PRAIRIE           32.75N  96.98W
03/17/2016  E0.88 INCH       DALLAS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL 1 MILE EAST OF 360 AT CAMP WISDOM RD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
835 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     HAIL             ARLINGTON               32.73N  97.12W
03/17/2016  E1.50 INCH       TARRANT            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AT EARLE AND PERKINS IN
            ARLINGTON