Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
332 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND IS WORKING ITS WAY EAST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT APPEARED TO EXTEND ALONG A LINE FROM
BRECKENRIDGE TO PALESTINE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THESE CELLS
WORK THEIR WAY EAST INTO THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA...SO AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. STORMS
MAY WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE METROPLEX...BUT WILL STILL POSE A
THREAT FOR AT LEAST SMALL HAIL...LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION FROM THE ELEVATED STORMS NORTH
OF THE I-20 REGION TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...BUT WEAKER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL..A FEW STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE IMPULSE RACES TOWARDS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE WARMER AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY WHEN THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR IF CONVECTION BECOMES
ORGANIZED ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING AN END TO OUR RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A WARM-UP DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...THEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA ABOUT A WEEK FROM TODAY.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1152 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS OF NOW BUT THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO EDGE NORTHWARD WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITY NOT FAR BEHIND. WACO WILL LIKELY FALL TO MVFR HERE
SHORTLY AS THE FRONT SPREADS NORTH. THERE WAS ONE SHOWER THAT
DEVELOPED WEST OF BRECKENRIDGE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGN OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF THE MAJOR METROPLEX AIRPORTS. THESE
WILL LIKELY TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE VCTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH
OF THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH FURTHER
DETERIORATION OF CIGS/VIS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE AND
TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN SPECIFICALLY IN THE TAFS.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  56  66  46  59 /  30  40  50  50  10
WACO, TX              73  59  71  47  60 /  50  40  50  60  20
PARIS, TX             69  51  64  43  58 /  30  40  50  50  10
DENTON, TX            66  53  63  43  58 /  30  40  50  50  10
MCKINNEY, TX          68  53  64  44  58 /  30  40  50  50  10
DALLAS, TX            68  57  66  46  59 /  30  40  50  50  10
TERRELL, TX           70  55  67  46  59 /  30  40  50  50  10
CORSICANA, TX         72  59  71  48  60 /  40  40  50  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            75  61  73  48  61 /  50  40  50  60  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  54  63  42  58 /  40  30  50  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
525 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS ARE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY ELEVATED. AS A RESULT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE...BUT
WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. IN THE
HUMID AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL BE
SURFACE-BASED...WHICH MEANS THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...INADEQUATE SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY LARGELY
UNORGANIZED...LIMITING THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REDEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT...IN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR APPEAR MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A SQUALL LINE IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON IN
AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
427 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BENBROOK                32.68N  97.45W
03/17/2016                   TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

            FENCE BLOWN DOWN IN BENBROOK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
434 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 AM     HAIL             2 SE WESTOVER HILLS     32.75N  97.41W
03/17/2016  M1.75 INCH       TARRANT            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF BALL HAIL AT I-30 AND HULEN (ARLINGTON HEIGHTS)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
441 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

TXZ102-171030-
WISE TX-
441 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WISE COUNTY UNTIL 530 AM
CDT...

AT 441 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CHICO...OR NEAR BRIDGEPORT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...ALVORD...CHICO AND LAKE BRIDGEPORT.

LAT...LON 3343 9738 3317 9739 3321 9784 3343 9790
TIME...MOT...LOC 0941Z 270DEG 28KT 3330 9776

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
445 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 AM     HAIL             4 NE BENBROOK           32.72N  97.40W
03/17/2016  M2.00 INCH       TARRANT            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL HAILSTONES JUST OVER 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER NEAR
            BENBROOK TRAFFIC CIRCLE (SW FORT WORTH)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
447 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 AM     HAIL             6 SW FORT WORTH         32.69N  97.41W
03/17/2016  E1.75 INCH       TARRANT            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND-DRIVEN GOLF BALL HAIL COVERING THE GROUND IN TCU
            AREA (FORT WORTH)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
519 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

TXZ101-102-116-117-171100-
PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-WISE TX-JACK TX-
519 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PARKER...WISE...
NORTHERN PALO PINTO AND JACK COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

AT 518 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTH OF JACKSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3347 9798 3344 9798 3343 9794 3343 9738
      3299 9740 3300 9764 3283 9770 3281 9847
      3295 9844 3295 9843 3347 9842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1018Z 284DEG 26KT 3308 9814

30