Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Fort Worth, TX

013 
WWUS54 KFWD 170652
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
152 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

TXC237-363-503-170715-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-160317T0715Z/
YOUNG TX-PALO PINTO TX-JACK TX-
152 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN YOUNG...NORTHERN PALO PINTO AND SOUTHWESTERN JACK
COUNTIES...

AT 151 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF GRAHAM...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAFORD...BRYSON AND POSSUM KINGDOM STATE PARK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3316 9805 3284 9807 3283 9858 3295 9858
      3296 9860 3316 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0651Z 263DEG 23KT 3300 9846 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

DUNN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1152 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS OF NOW BUT THE
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO EDGE NORTHWARD WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITY NOT FAR BEHIND. WACO WILL LIKELY FALL TO MVFR HERE
SHORTLY AS THE FRONT SPREADS NORTH. THERE WAS ONE SHOWER THAT
DEVELOPED WEST OF BRECKENRIDGE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGN OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF THE MAJOR METROPLEX AIRPORTS. THESE
WILL LIKELY TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE VCTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH
OF THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH FURTHER
DETERIORATION OF CIGS/VIS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE AND
TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN DOWN SPECIFICALLY IN THE TAFS.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016/
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE HRRR/RAP...4KM WRF/NAM
AND SREF CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST WAA FOCUSING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS FROM ABILENE TO MINERAL WELLS. THIS AREA WILL
HAVE A SURFACE-850MB THETA-E RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS IT AS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NM/CO BORDER MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THIS AREA
IN THE 1-4 AM PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MODEST WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE OUR FAR W/NW
COUNTIES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN DENTON AND WACO...INCLUDING THE DFW
METROPLEX BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
COMBINED WITH 50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WOULD INDICATE THAT
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT COULD BECOME
STRONG OR EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH HAIL...LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS IF THEY CROSS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT MANY OF THE FORCING FEATURES FROM THE
WARM FRONT TO THE SHORTWAVE AND WAA ARE FAIRLY SUBTLE...SO MY
CONFIDENCE EXPANDING LOW-MID CHANCE POPS INTO I-35 ARE NOT THE
HIGHEST...BUT I SEE ENOUGH SIGNAL IN THE MODELS TO INDICATE THIS
IN THE UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...I DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT FOR THE
EXPECTED WARM FRONTAL POSITION...IN WHICH THE HRRR/RAP PROGNOSIS
WAS FOLLOWED PER IT/S SUPERIOR HANDLING OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING.

05/

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ALONG A HAMILTON/COMANCHE...TO
WACO...TO CENTERVILLE LINE AT MID EVENING. A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE
WAS NOTED WITH SURFACE DEW PT TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES IN THE 60S
SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH READINGS IN THE
30S/40S/50S NORTH OF THE FRONT. A CONFLUENT MID-UPPER FLOW WAS
NOTED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH STRONG WESTERLIES ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING
WAS STILL FAIRLY DRY WITH A MODEST SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ANCHORED
AT 850MB WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850MB-600MB.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE HRRR/RAP...4KM WRF/NAM
AND SREF CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST WAA FOCUSING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS FROM ABILENE TO MINERAL WELLS. THIS AREA WILL
HAVE A SURFACE-850MB THETA-E RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS IT AS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NM/CO BORDER MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THIS AREA
IN THE 1-4 AM PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MODEST WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED-SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE OUR FAR W/NW
COUNTIES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN DENTON AND WACO...INCLUDING THE DFW
METROPLEX BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
COMBINED WITH 50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WOULD INDICATE THAT
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT COULD BECOME
STRONG OR EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH HAIL...LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS IF THEY CROSS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT MANY OF THE FORCING FEATURES FROM THE
WARM FRONT TO THE SHORTWAVE AND WAA ARE FAIRLY SUBTLE...SO MY
CONFIDENCE EXPANDING LOW-MID CHANCE POPS INTO I-35 ARE NOT THE
HIGHEST...BUT I SEE ENOUGH SIGNAL IN THE MODELS TO INDICATE THIS
IN THE UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...I DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT FOR THE
EXPECTED WARM FRONTAL POSITION...IN WHICH THE HRRR/RAP PROGNOSIS
WAS FOLLOWED PER IT/S SUPERIOR HANDLING OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  54  69  56  65  45 /  30  40  30  50  50
WACO, TX              60  72  58  71  48 /  20  40  30  40  60
PARIS, TX             47  70  52  63  43 /  10  20  30  50  50
DENTON, TX            49  67  53  63  43 /  30  40  30  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          48  69  53  63  43 /  20  30  30  50  50
DALLAS, TX            54  70  55  65  46 /  30  40  30  50  50
TERRELL, TX           52  71  54  67  45 /  20  30  30  50  50
CORSICANA, TX         57  71  57  73  47 /  20  40  30  40  60
TEMPLE, TX            62  74  61  74  49 /  20  40  30  40  60
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  66  54  64  42 /  40  40  30  50  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
949 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-171200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
949 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF A
GAINESVILLE...TO DALLAS-FORT WORTH...TO HILLSBORO AND COMANCHE
LINE. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND WIND SHEAR...A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN
HAZARD BEING HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR APPEAR MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A SQUALL LINE IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT INTERESTS
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF HAIL AND REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED OVERNIGHT.