Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
335 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated to extend the Severe Thunderstorm Watch into the far
southeast CWFA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 304 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Solid line of strong to severe thunderstorms has evolved out of the
convection associated with the short wave lifting out of Alabama.
This should progress east across the southern half of the forecast
area through the remainder of the afternoon with most if not all
activity south and east of the area by this evening. Will still see
some residual instability across the area and there is some
potential for redevelopment across the north later tonight along if
we see any significant outflow pushing southeast out of the
thunderstorm complex in the Mid-South/Ohio Valley region this
afternoon. Upper-level flow turns somewhat northwesterly in nature
Thursday...but best energy running through this flow remains mostly
north and east of the state. Without the cool mid-level temperatures
and direct short wave support we saw today...Thursday severe
potential looks marginal at best.

Forecast Heat Index values are around Heat Advisory levels across
the far southeast tomorrow afternoon. Right now confidence is not
quite high enough to go with the advisory...mid-shift will need to
re-evaluate with the new model input.

20

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Previous Discussion...

Long Range models show good agreement with weak disturbances
exiting east Thursday night... with increased ridging and a weak
northwest flow aloft developing by Friday morning. This should
spread some drier air into the forecast area on Friday and help
hold afternoon convection down to more isolated in coverage at
best. The drier... less active pattern may be short-lived as
models agrees on a strong low pressure system pushing across the
Great Lakes region Friday night-Saturday that drags a frontal
boundary into the TN Valley region on Saturday... then possibly
into north Georgia Saturday night. It appears an active west to
northwest flow aloft could interact with the front to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area over
the weekend and into the first part of next week. This daily
scattered convection is much needed with much of north Georgia in
a severe drought. Otherwise... expecting near or slightly warmer
than normal temperatures to prevail... with highs generally in the
90s and lows in the 70s... except 80s and 60s respectively in the
mountains.

39

AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the area through
06Z outside of convection. Areas of MVFR or lower visibilities and
ceilings are possible 06Z-14Z...however confidence not high enough
to include in any TAFs right now. Line of strong convection across
the forecast area will continue to push east impacting mainly the
southeastern half of the area through 22-24Z. Could see additional
convection pushing southeast into the northern half of the area
after 04Z...however confidence is medium at best. Winds will remain
southwest to west through the period. Winds speeds 7-12kt w/ gusts
15-20kt through 00Z...diminishing to 3-7kt after.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

High concerning wind direction/speed...medium all other parameters.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  93  73  97 /  20  30  20  20
Atlanta         74  91  74  95 /  30  30  20  20
Blairsville     70  86  69  91 /  30  40  20  20
Cartersville    73  92  73  94 /  30  30  20  20
Columbus        75  94  75  96 /  20  30  20  20
Gainesville     73  90  73  94 /  30  40  20  20
Macon           74  94  74  98 /  20  30  20  20
Rome            72  92  72  96 /  30  30  20  20
Peachtree City  72  93  72  95 /  30  30  20  20
Vidalia         75  96  75  97 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Chattahoochee...
Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...
Hancock...Houston...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Laurens...
Macon...Marion...Montgomery...Muscogee...Peach...Pulaski...
Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...
Treutlen...Twiggs...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...
Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
317 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
317 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG STORMS ARE
LIKELY...WITH SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL ALSO
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY
WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
413 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ074-084-085-097-062100-
JOHNSON GA-WILKINSON GA-WASHINGTON GA-LAURENS GA-
413 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON...
SOUTHEASTERN WILKINSON...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN LAURENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 413 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR OCONEE TO 9 MILES WEST OF WRIGHTSVILLE TO NEAR
ALLENTOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
WRIGHTSVILLE...TENNILLE...HARRISON...OCONEE...RIDDLEVILLE...LOVETT...
TUCKERS CROSSROAD...SPANN...DONOVAN...NEW HOME...PRINGLE AND
CHAPPELLS MILL.

LAT...LON 3294 8254 3270 8258 3262 8271 3266 8310
      3276 8302 3292 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 279DEG 49KT 3285 8291 3273 8288 3261 8318

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
416 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ097-109>111-062100-
WHEELER GA-DODGE GA-LAURENS GA-TELFAIR GA-
416 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WHEELER...DODGE...
SOUTHWESTERN LAURENS AND NORTHERN TELFAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
EDT...

AT 415 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHESTER TO NEAR RHINE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
MCRAE...EASTMAN...HELENA...CHESTER...MILAN...CADWELL...CHAUNCEY...REN
TZ... UNION...LITTLE OCMULGEE STATE
PARK...YONKERS...GODWINSVILLE...ACHORD... FIVE POINTS...CEDAR
GROVE...JAY BIRD SPRINGS...PLAINFIELD...LOWERY AND GRESSTON.

LAT...LON 3206 8330 3239 8323 3241 8279 3197 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 263DEG 27KT 3237 8318 3207 8322

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
418 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW DANVILLE          32.65N  83.27W
07/06/2016                   TWIGGS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON JACK CLAY RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600463

RWILLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
420 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N JEFFERSONVILLE      32.72N  83.35W
07/06/2016                   TWIGGS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ONTO HIGHWAY 18.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600464

RWILLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
443 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ086-062100-
EMANUEL GA-
443 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EMANUEL COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM EDT...

AT 442 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HERNDON TO NEAR GARFIELD TO NEAR NUNEZ...AND
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
TWIN CITY...GARFIELD...GEORGE L SMITH STATE PARK AND CANOOCHEE.

LAT...LON 3257 8202 3255 8206 3256 8208 3253 8213
      3251 8218 3252 8231 3261 8225 3277 8222
      3281 8215 3266 8208 3261 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 260DEG 16KT 3274 8215 3260 8209 3254 8228

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
449 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ019-030-062115-
POLK GA-FLOYD GA-
449 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN POLK AND SOUTHERN
FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 449 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CEDARTOWN...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ROME...CEDARTOWN...ROCKMART...ARAGON...CAVE SPRING...ESOM HILL...FISH
CREEK...ETNA...LINDALE...VAN WERT AND SENEY.

LAT...LON 3394 8539 3410 8542 3424 8514 3398 8504
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 249DEG 20KT 3405 8531