Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1245 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016/

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Fcst period continues to be marked by perturbations traversing
the upper flow in a very moist and moderately unstable environment
allowing for rounds of showers and storms. The first of which is
currently approaching north AL and progged to spark development
across north and west central GA after about 9-10 AM then push
south and east. Median SBCAPE again looks to be in the 1500-2000
J/kg range...possibly higher in east central GA by afternoon since
they will have less cloud coverage to start the day. PWATs looking
to be quite high near 2.0 inches so still think hydrometeor
loading to aid downdrafts and highly efficient rain producers even
for showers today. Not expecting severe but some strong convection
with main threats of winds up to 35-45 mph...brief heavy
rainfall...and frequent lightning. SPC also trimmed back the
Marginal Risk so now we are in general thunder mention. Temps look
a bit lower today than yesterday given a bit greater cloud
coverage and a weakened ridge to the southeast so should stay
below heat advisory criteria for east Central GA today...still
muggy and unpleasant with heat indices there of low 100s.

Thursday will have another piece of energy influencing the area but
will have a shifted orientation more to the eastern portion of the
CWA. Kept chance pops to north and east central GA. Could have
slightly greater CAPE values than today though thinking similar
overall storm threats with some strong development possible. At
least these rounds of precip can try to chip away at the drought
conditions. Slightly warmer temps across north GA and similar temps
for central with many areas getting low to mid 90s.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
Long Range models show good agreement with weak disturbances
exiting east Thursday night... with increased ridging and a weak
northwest flow aloft developing by Friday morning. This should
spread some drier air into the forecast area on Friday and help
hold afternoon convection down to more isolated in coverage at
best. The drier... less active pattern may be short-lived as
models agrees on a strong low pressure system pushing across the
Great Lakes region Friday night-Saturday that drags a frontal
boundary into the TN Valley region on Saturday... then possibly
into north Georgia Saturday night. It appears an active west to
northwest flow aloft could interact with the front to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area over
the weekend and into the first part of next week. This daily
scattered convection is much needed with much of north Georgia in
a severe drought. Otherwise... expecting near or slightly warmer
than normal temperatures to prevail... with highs generally in the
90s and lows in the 70s... except 80s and 60s respectively in the
mountains.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the area through
06Z outside of convection. Areas of MVFR or lower visibilities and
ceilings are possible 06Z-14Z...however confidence not high enough
to include in any TAFs right now. Line of strong convection across
the forecast area will continue to push east impacting mainly the
southeastern half of the area through 22-24Z. Could see additional
convection pushing southeast into the northern half of the area
after 04Z...however confidence is medium at best. Winds will remain
southwest to west through the period. Winds speeds 7-12kt w/ gusts
15-20kt through 00Z...diminishing to 3-7kt after.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

High concerning wind direction/speed...medium all other parameters.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  73  94  75 /  40  20  30  20
Atlanta         89  74  92  76 /  40  30  30  10
Blairsville     84  68  86  69 /  40  30  40  20
Cartersville    87  72  92  73 /  40  30  30  20
Columbus        93  75  94  76 /  40  20  20  10
Gainesville     87  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
Macon           95  75  96  76 /  30  20  30  10
Rome            89  73  93  74 /  40  30  30  10
Peachtree City  89  72  93  73 /  40  30  30  10
Vidalia         96  76  96  76 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...Baker

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
935 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
935 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA TODAY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...AND A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL ALSO
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER DARK...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY
WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
149 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ072-073-061815-
BALDWIN GA-JONES GA-
149 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BALDWIN AND NORTHEASTERN
JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 149 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER GRAY...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
MILLEDGEVILLE...GRAY...CLINTON...BRADLEY...WAYSIDE...COOPERS...JAMES.
.. GREENBERRY CROSSROADS...ROUND OAK...BROWNS
CROSSING...ETHRIDGE...HADDOCK AND BLOUNTSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3294 8328 3295 8329 3294 8333 3293 8358
      3311 8362 3318 8339 3317 8337 3317 8336
      3318 8336 3317 8333 3317 8332 3295 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 258DEG 11KT 3304 8352

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ048-049-059-060-061830-
MORGAN GA-NEWTON GA-JASPER GA-PUTNAM GA-
152 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORGAN...SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON...
NORTHEASTERN JASPER AND NORTHERN PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 151 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR RUTLEDGE TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MADISON TO NEAR
MANSFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
EATONTON...MADISON...RUTLEDGE...NEWBORN...SHADY
DALE...BUCKHEAD...PHOENIX... SWORDS...WARFIELD...HARMONY...ROCK
EAGLE 4-H CENTER...FARRAR...GODFREY... PARKS MILL...CENTRAL GEORGIA
EXPERIMENT STN AND HARD LABOR CREEK STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3326 8337 3345 8379 3356 8365 3366 8359
      3362 8336 3356 8331 3354 8327 3351 8328
      3347 8328 3345 8326 3344 8326 3342 8324
      3340 8324 3340 8321 3338 8322 3340 8320
      3338 8319 3338 8320
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 285DEG 26KT 3362 8357 3353 8356 3344 8374

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
157 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BERKELEY MANOR          33.97N  84.17W
07/06/2016                   GWINNETT           GA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES AT INTERSECTION OF CASTLEROCK
            WAY AND BLARNEY WAY. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600437

SNELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
158 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HICKORY HILLS           33.84N  84.02W
07/06/2016                   GWINNETT           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ON A HOUSE IN THE SNELLVILLE
            AREA. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600438

SNELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
201 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALLENDALE               33.99N  83.98W
07/06/2016                   GWINNETT           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AROUND THE LAWRENCEVILLE
            AREA. ONE TREE DOWN ON A BUSINESS. ONE TREE DOWN ON A
            HOME... AND ONE TREE DOWN ON A VEHICLE. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600439

SNELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
201 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ024-061830-
BANKS GA-
201 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BANKS COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM EDT...

AT 200 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR COMMERCE...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
BANKS CROSSING.

LAT...LON 3426 8334 3424 8334 3421 8336 3420 8340
      3426 8348 3426 8352 3428 8353 3432 8339
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 261DEG 36KT 3425 8341