Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
739 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016/

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Fcst period continues to be marked by perturbations traversing
the upper flow in a very moist and moderately unstable environment
allowing for rounds of showers and storms. The first of which is
currently approaching north AL and progged to spark development
across north and west central GA after about 9-10 AM then push
south and east. Median SBCAPE again looks to be in the 1500-2000
J/kg range...possibly higher in east central GA by afternoon since
they will have less cloud coverage to start the day. PWATs looking
to be quite high near 2.0 inches so still think hydrometeor
loading to aid downdrafts and highly efficient rain producers even
for showers today. Not expecting severe but some strong convection
with main threats of winds up to 35-45 mph...brief heavy
rainfall...and frequent lightning. SPC also trimmed back the
Marginal Risk so now we are in general thunder mention. Temps look
a bit lower today than yesterday given a bit greater cloud
coverage and a weakened ridge to the southeast so should stay
below heat advisory criteria for east Central GA today...still
muggy and unpleasant with heat indices there of low 100s.

Thursday will have another piece of energy influencing the area but
will have a shifted orientation more to the eastern portion of the
CWA. Kept chance pops to north and east central GA. Could have
slightly greater CAPE values than today though thinking similar
overall storm threats with some strong development possible. At
least these rounds of precip can try to chip away at the drought
conditions. Slightly warmer temps across north GA and similar temps
for central with many areas getting low to mid 90s.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
Long Range models show good agreement with weak disturbances
exiting east Thursday night... with increased ridging and a weak
northwest flow aloft developing by Friday morning. This should
spread some drier air into the forecast area on Friday and help
hold afternoon convection down to more isolated in coverage at
best. The drier... less active pattern may be short-lived as
models agrees on a strong low pressure system pushing across the
Great Lakes region Friday night-Saturday that drags a frontal
boundary into the TN Valley region on Saturday... then possibly
into north Georgia Saturday night. It appears an active west to
northwest flow aloft could interact with the front to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area over
the weekend and into the first part of next week. This daily
scattered convection is much needed with much of north Georgia in
a severe drought. Otherwise... expecting near or slightly warmer
than normal temperatures to prevail... with highs generally in the
90s and lows in the 70s... except 80s and 60s respectively in the
mountains.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Mainly VFR conditions expected although some patchy MVFR or lower cigs
could occur out ahead or with areas of precip this morning into
midday as next disturbance approaches from the west. Greatest
chance appears to be in the 14-18z period for near KATL then
slightly later for other sites to east and south. Cigs should be
close to 4 kft otherwise then have some improvements with a
midlevel deck near 10 kft late afternoon into evening. Cannot rule
out some lingering -SHRA chances if redevelopment occurs in
afternoon so am carrying PROB30 near KATL and VCSH for other sites
with more uncertainty. Winds generally WSW 5-7 kts initially then
near 10 kts for afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low on precip timing/coverage and morning cigs.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  73  94  75 /  40  20  30  20
Atlanta         89  74  92  76 /  40  30  30  10
Blairsville     84  68  86  69 /  40  30  40  20
Cartersville    87  72  92  73 /  40  30  30  20
Columbus        93  75  94  76 /  40  20  20  10
Gainesville     87  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
Macon           95  75  96  76 /  30  20  30  10
Rome            89  73  93  74 /  40  30  30  10
Peachtree City  89  72  93  73 /  40  30  30  10
Vidalia         96  76  96  76 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...Baker

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
909 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ002>005-061345-
MURRAY GA-CATOOSA GA-WHITFIELD GA-WALKER GA-
909 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MURRAY...EASTERN CATOOSA...
WHITFIELD AND SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM EDT...

AT 909 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TUNNEL HILL...OR NEAR
DALTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING.  WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
DALTON...CHATSWORTH...RINGGOLD...VARNELL...ETON...TUNNEL
HILL...COHUTTA... CISCO...NORTH GEORGIA SPEEDWAY...CONASAUGA
LAKE...GREGORY...SUMAC...ROCKY FACE...RAMHURST...WOOD
STATION...DAWNVILLE...CRANDALL...TENNGA...FORT MOUNTAIN STATE PARK
AND BEAVERDALE.

LAT...LON 3486 8462 3482 8458 3478 8464 3473 8466
      3460 8465 3461 8472 3462 8472 3462 8474
      3461 8475 3466 8522 3498 8510 3499 8462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1309Z 280DEG 41KT 3480 8503