Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1245 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016/

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Fcst period continues to be marked by perturbations traversing
the upper flow in a very moist and moderately unstable environment
allowing for rounds of showers and storms. The first of which is
currently approaching north AL and progged to spark development
across north and west central GA after about 9-10 AM then push
south and east. Median SBCAPE again looks to be in the 1500-2000
J/kg range...possibly higher in east central GA by afternoon since
they will have less cloud coverage to start the day. PWATs looking
to be quite high near 2.0 inches so still think hydrometeor
loading to aid downdrafts and highly efficient rain producers even
for showers today. Not expecting severe but some strong convection
with main threats of winds up to 35-45 mph...brief heavy
rainfall...and frequent lightning. SPC also trimmed back the
Marginal Risk so now we are in general thunder mention. Temps look
a bit lower today than yesterday given a bit greater cloud
coverage and a weakened ridge to the southeast so should stay
below heat advisory criteria for east Central GA today...still
muggy and unpleasant with heat indices there of low 100s.

Thursday will have another piece of energy influencing the area but
will have a shifted orientation more to the eastern portion of the
CWA. Kept chance pops to north and east central GA. Could have
slightly greater CAPE values than today though thinking similar
overall storm threats with some strong development possible. At
least these rounds of precip can try to chip away at the drought
conditions. Slightly warmer temps across north GA and similar temps
for central with many areas getting low to mid 90s.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
Long Range models show good agreement with weak disturbances
exiting east Thursday night... with increased ridging and a weak
northwest flow aloft developing by Friday morning. This should
spread some drier air into the forecast area on Friday and help
hold afternoon convection down to more isolated in coverage at
best. The drier... less active pattern may be short-lived as
models agrees on a strong low pressure system pushing across the
Great Lakes region Friday night-Saturday that drags a frontal
boundary into the TN Valley region on Saturday... then possibly
into north Georgia Saturday night. It appears an active west to
northwest flow aloft could interact with the front to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area over
the weekend and into the first part of next week. This daily
scattered convection is much needed with much of north Georgia in
a severe drought. Otherwise... expecting near or slightly warmer
than normal temperatures to prevail... with highs generally in the
90s and lows in the 70s... except 80s and 60s respectively in the
mountains.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the area through
06Z outside of convection. Areas of MVFR or lower visibilities and
ceilings are possible 06Z-14Z...however confidence not high enough
to include in any TAFs right now. Line of strong convection across
the forecast area will continue to push east impacting mainly the
southeastern half of the area through 22-24Z. Could see additional
convection pushing southeast into the northern half of the area
after 04Z...however confidence is medium at best. Winds will remain
southwest to west through the period. Winds speeds 7-12kt w/ gusts
15-20kt through 00Z...diminishing to 3-7kt after.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

High concerning wind direction/speed...medium all other parameters.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  73  94  75 /  40  20  30  20
Atlanta         89  74  92  76 /  40  30  30  10
Blairsville     84  68  86  69 /  40  30  40  20
Cartersville    87  72  92  73 /  40  30  30  20
Columbus        93  75  94  76 /  40  20  20  10
Gainesville     87  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
Macon           95  75  96  76 /  30  20  30  10
Rome            89  73  93  74 /  40  30  30  10
Peachtree City  89  72  93  73 /  40  30  30  10
Vidalia         96  76  96  76 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...Baker

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
935 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
935 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA TODAY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...AND A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL ALSO
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER DARK...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY
WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
231 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LA VISTA                33.81N  84.34W
07/06/2016                   DEKALB             GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN ALONG WEATHERSTONE WAY IN THE WOODLAND
            HILLS AREA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600443

SNELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
233 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ059-060-069>072-081-082-061915-
UPSON GA-CRAWFORD GA-JONES GA-JASPER GA-LAMAR GA-MONROE GA-PUTNAM GA-
BIBB GA-
233 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN UPSON...NORTHERN
CRAWFORD...JONES...SOUTHEASTERN JASPER...SOUTHERN LAMAR...MONROE...
SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM AND NORTHWESTERN BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...

AT 233 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF FLOVILLA TO 8 MILES EAST OF FORSYTH
TO NEAR YATESVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
MACON...THOMASTON...BARNESVILLE...FORSYTH...GRAY...YATESVILLE...CULLO
DEN... ALDORA...THE ROCK...LINCOLN PARK...SUNSET
VILLAGE...COLLIER...JARRELL
PLANTATION...STANFORDVILLE...LOGTOWN...JOHNSTONVILLE...BRADLEY...WAYS
IDE... GOGGINS AND ARKWRIGHT.

LAT...LON 3299 8429 3299 8427 3302 8426 3310 8413
      3326 8351 3300 8340 3281 8380 3281 8440
      3284 8443 3283 8444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 262DEG 28KT 3316 8393 3299 8381 3286 8422

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
237 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ORMEWOOD                33.73N  84.36W
07/06/2016                   FULTON             GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE AND POWERLINE DOWN ACROSS CONFERATE AVE SE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600444

KS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
252 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ079-080-061915-
TALBOT GA-TAYLOR GA-
252 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TALBOT AND
NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 251 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR JUNCTION CITY...OR NEAR
TALBOTTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
TALBOTTON...JUNCTION CITY...GENEVA...PRATTSBURG...CARSONVILLE...
BALDWINVILLE...PO BIDDY CROSSROADS...WESLEY CHURCH AND HOWARD.

LAT...LON 3254 8445 3256 8445 3256 8449 3255 8449
      3254 8451 3254 8453 3255 8454 3254 8454
      3255 8455 3254 8457 3254 8460 3275 8458
      3275 8429 3274 8427 3253 8428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 269DEG 18KT 3263 8450

16