Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1245 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016/

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Fcst period continues to be marked by perturbations traversing
the upper flow in a very moist and moderately unstable environment
allowing for rounds of showers and storms. The first of which is
currently approaching north AL and progged to spark development
across north and west central GA after about 9-10 AM then push
south and east. Median SBCAPE again looks to be in the 1500-2000
J/kg range...possibly higher in east central GA by afternoon since
they will have less cloud coverage to start the day. PWATs looking
to be quite high near 2.0 inches so still think hydrometeor
loading to aid downdrafts and highly efficient rain producers even
for showers today. Not expecting severe but some strong convection
with main threats of winds up to 35-45 mph...brief heavy
rainfall...and frequent lightning. SPC also trimmed back the
Marginal Risk so now we are in general thunder mention. Temps look
a bit lower today than yesterday given a bit greater cloud
coverage and a weakened ridge to the southeast so should stay
below heat advisory criteria for east Central GA today...still
muggy and unpleasant with heat indices there of low 100s.

Thursday will have another piece of energy influencing the area but
will have a shifted orientation more to the eastern portion of the
CWA. Kept chance pops to north and east central GA. Could have
slightly greater CAPE values than today though thinking similar
overall storm threats with some strong development possible. At
least these rounds of precip can try to chip away at the drought
conditions. Slightly warmer temps across north GA and similar temps
for central with many areas getting low to mid 90s.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
Long Range models show good agreement with weak disturbances
exiting east Thursday night... with increased ridging and a weak
northwest flow aloft developing by Friday morning. This should
spread some drier air into the forecast area on Friday and help
hold afternoon convection down to more isolated in coverage at
best. The drier... less active pattern may be short-lived as
models agrees on a strong low pressure system pushing across the
Great Lakes region Friday night-Saturday that drags a frontal
boundary into the TN Valley region on Saturday... then possibly
into north Georgia Saturday night. It appears an active west to
northwest flow aloft could interact with the front to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area over
the weekend and into the first part of next week. This daily
scattered convection is much needed with much of north Georgia in
a severe drought. Otherwise... expecting near or slightly warmer
than normal temperatures to prevail... with highs generally in the
90s and lows in the 70s... except 80s and 60s respectively in the
mountains.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the area through
06Z outside of convection. Areas of MVFR or lower visibilities and
ceilings are possible 06Z-14Z...however confidence not high enough
to include in any TAFs right now. Line of strong convection across
the forecast area will continue to push east impacting mainly the
southeastern half of the area through 22-24Z. Could see additional
convection pushing southeast into the northern half of the area
after 04Z...however confidence is medium at best. Winds will remain
southwest to west through the period. Winds speeds 7-12kt w/ gusts
15-20kt through 00Z...diminishing to 3-7kt after.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

High concerning wind direction/speed...medium all other parameters.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  73  94  75 /  40  20  30  20
Atlanta         89  74  92  76 /  40  30  30  10
Blairsville     84  68  86  69 /  40  30  40  20
Cartersville    87  72  92  73 /  40  30  30  20
Columbus        93  75  94  76 /  40  20  20  10
Gainesville     87  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
Macon           95  75  96  76 /  30  20  30  10
Rome            89  73  93  74 /  40  30  30  10
Peachtree City  89  72  93  73 /  40  30  30  10
Vidalia         96  76  96  76 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...Baker

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
935 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
935 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA TODAY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY...AND A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL ALSO
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER DARK...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY
WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
252 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ079-080-061915-
TALBOT GA-TAYLOR GA-
252 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TALBOT AND
NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 251 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR JUNCTION CITY...OR NEAR
TALBOTTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
TALBOTTON...JUNCTION CITY...GENEVA...PRATTSBURG...CARSONVILLE...
BALDWINVILLE...PO BIDDY CROSSROADS...WESLEY CHURCH AND HOWARD.

LAT...LON 3254 8445 3256 8445 3256 8449 3255 8449
      3254 8451 3254 8453 3255 8454 3254 8454
      3255 8455 3254 8457 3254 8460 3275 8458
      3275 8429 3274 8427 3253 8428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 269DEG 18KT 3263 8450

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
253 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ090-091-061930-
MARION GA-CHATTAHOOCHEE GA-
253 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MARION AND CHATTAHOOCHEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 253 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CUSSETA...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
CUSSETA...EELBECK/WEST FORT BENNING...RENFROE...MANTA...ZELLOBEE...
CHRISTOPHER AND JAMESTOWN/SOUTH FORT BENNING.

LAT...LON 3223 8492 3224 8491 3225 8492 3226 8489
      3228 8492 3239 8492 3241 8488 3241 8483
      3242 8481 3241 8479 3242 8477 3245 8476
      3248 8457 3223 8457
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 253DEG 23KT 3231 8483

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
256 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ039-061-062-075-061930-
GLASCOCK GA-WILKES GA-HANCOCK GA-WARREN GA-
256 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GLASCOCK...SOUTHEASTERN WILKES...
EASTERN HANCOCK AND WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 256 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LINCOLNTON TO 6 MILES EAST OF
SPARTA...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
WARRENTON...GIBSON...NORWOOD...MITCHELL...CAMAK...HOLLIDAY
PARK...JEWELL... MAYFIELD...REESE...MESENA...BEALL
SPRINGS...BASTONVILLE...SHOALS...AGRICOLA AND CADLEY.

LAT...LON 3366 8251 3364 8256 3365 8258 3363 8258
      3363 8262 3362 8262 3361 8265 3346 8259
      3341 8255 3335 8255 3334 8249 3317 8261
      3320 8274 3324 8275 3322 8282 3324 8293
      3371 8259 3370 8251 3364 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 288DEG 24KT 3364 8257 3329 8287

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
301 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE SHOAL CREEK FARMS 33.91N  83.26W
07/06/2016                   CLARKE             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF ELECTRICAL LINES DOWN ACROSS COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600447

SNELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
301 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ081-082-061930-
CRAWFORD GA-BIBB GA-
301 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRAWFORD AND WESTERN BIBB
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ROBERTA...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ROBERTA...HORNS...LAKE TOBESOFKEE...KNOXVILLE...SANDY POINT...LIZELLA...
MUSELLA AND JACK BROWN ESTATES.

LAT...LON 3263 8406 3264 8407 3281 8412 3285 8396
      3285 8390 3288 8384 3289 8380 3269 8374
      3269 8377 3267 8380 3262 8406
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 250DEG 22KT 3278 8401

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
301 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

GAZ074-061930-
WASHINGTON GA-
301 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
EDT...

AT 301 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR DEEPSTEP...OR NEAR
SANDERSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
SANDERSVILLE...DAVISBORO...TENNILLE...DEEPSTEP...RIDDLEVILLE...WARTHE
N... HEBRON AND DOWNS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR ORTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3292 8306 3293 8307 3297 8307 3299 8305
      3301 8306 3303 8306 3306 8304 3307 8305
      3315 8271 3313 8266 3310 8265 3310 8264
      3308 8264 3306 8262 3290 8260
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 264DEG 17KT 3302 8290