River Flood Warning 67, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

143 
WGUS84 KEWX 311437
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
937 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  San Antonio River Near Elmendorf Affecting Bexar and Wilson Counties
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC029-493-311507-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-160531T1800Z/
/ELMT2.1.ER.160530T2307Z.160531T0200Z.160531T0506Z.NO/
937 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

The flood warning is cancelled for the San Antonio River Near Elmendorf.
* At  8:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 32.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested at 35.3 feet at 8:30 pm on Monday and will 
  continue falling.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun
 Elmendorf          33   35   32.4   Tue 08 AM  29.4  30.4  29.7  28.4  26.8


&&

LAT...LON 2919 9838 2926 9835 2920 9817 2899 9804
      2894 9813 2915 9825             

$$

bmw/sbs

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
953 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Made few minor changes to the weather grids to reduce PoPs over
parts of the Rio Grande based on area radar trends and HiRes
models solutions. Still expecting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the Big Bend and northeast Mexico to push
eastward late tonight continuing overnight. New rainfall amounts
out west could range from few hundredths to one quarter inch with
up to one half inch over isolated spots. Widespread flash
flooding conditions are not expected for this period, however,
some local roads may end up with pounding of waters.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are prevailing at the TAF sites this evening. A
return to MVFR and IFR is expected overnight. While there is a
chance of storms at all sites at some point this valid period,
will try to only mention storms in the TAFs when the probability
is high enough to warrant the inclusion of activity. Think chances
will warrant a mention of VCTS for Del Rio this evening for
possible activity moving in from the west. VFR is expected to
return tomorrow afternoon. Southeasterly flow is expected to
continue through tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
With the passage of the morning MCS, the CWA has enjoyed a period
of dryness that may be few and far between beyond today. There
currently is elevated convection ongoing out in West Texas which
is being largely being helped by a subtle shortwave at 500 mb.
While this activity could make it east into our CWA, the current
atmosphere still has over 100 J/KG of CIN and dewpoints in the low
60s, which is about 10 degrees less than in previous days. While
some destabilization is ongoing and capping will weaken,
confidence in significant severe or heavy rain activity reaching
the CWA is quite low. Having said that, some showers and storms
will probably impact the Rio Grande Plains and plateau areas and
result in measurable rain and latest HRRR does indeed show a sub-
severe complex approaching from the west. As a result...lowered
QPF quite a bit but kept the 40-50 percent PoP chances from the
previous forecast.

For Tuesday, while hi-resolution models are quite dry for most of
the day, synoptic models produce QPF by mid to late afternoon and
increase coverage into the overnight hours. Expect isolated to
scattered shower activity as instability increases and as low
level jet increases into the overnight hours, coverage should
increase across much of the CWA.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Another possible MCS may occur overnight Tuesday and exit in the
morning hours allowing for a brief lull in rainfall until around
noon when the dynamics of the upper low begin to influence the
region. There has been the prospect of a cold front passage the
last few days through the CWA but now it seems this front will
stall well north of the area, which may be good news as a lack of
focused lifting prohibits the prospect of organized convection.
However...PWATs 1.8-2 inches are expected and with good upper
level support...think that at least isolated flash flood potential
will exist for the whole CWA, especially in locations already hit
with multiple inches of rain over the last 4-5 days.

The upper level pattern continues to slow down in its progression
through the state in the late week period. As a result, multiple
periods of heavy rainfall will be possible with the high PWATs and
broad, deep upper influences. GFS/EURO still disagree on the
evolution of the low as it exits to the east...or south even if
the EURO is to be believed.

So in the end, agree with the previous forecast that Flash Flood
Watches will be needed as early as Tuesday night which may need to
be an extended watch due to the periods of possible heavy rainfall
for the next 48 hours...or through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  85  70  82  68 /  20  30  40  70  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  85  69  82  68 /  20  30  40  70  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  85  70  83  68 /  20  30  40  70  70
Burnet Muni Airport            68  80  68  80  66 /  30  30  60  70  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  88  72  85  67 /  50  40  60  60  70
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  81  69  81  67 /  20  30  40  70  60
Hondo Muni Airport             71  86  70  83  68 /  30  40  50  70  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  84  69  82  67 /  20  30  40  70  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  85  71  83  70 /  20  30  30  70  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  85  71  83  68 /  30  40  40  70  70
Stinson Muni Airport           72  85  72  84  69 /  30  40  40  70  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1052 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-311600-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
1052 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE CAPABLE OF QUARTER SIZED
HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. BY
SATURDAY...6-DAY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS IN
EXCESS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT FOR THIS WEEK...A
FEW STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND 60 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE. PLEASE STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER UPDATES AS IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL HAZARDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

TB3