River Flood Warning 72, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

632 
WGUS44 KEWX 312212
FLWEWX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
512 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued 
 a flood warning for the... 

  Guadalupe River 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 
 
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 
 
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 
 
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 
 
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC091-187-011406-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0072.160531T2205Z-160601T1406Z/
/NBRT2.2.ER.160531T2131Z.160531T2300Z.160601T0206Z.NO/
512 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity... 
The flood warning continues for 
 the Guadalupe River At NB Abv Comal.
* from this afternoon to Wednesday morning...or until the warning is cancelled. 
* At  5:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 8.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 12.5 feet by this evening. 
  The river will fall below flood stage tonight.
* Impact...At 12.5 feet...Several sections of River Road flood. Autos, gear and 
  sleeping campers can wash downstream from low banks adjacent to the river. 
  Flow is well into the flood plain through New Braunfels..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun
 NB Abv Comal        6    7    8.4   Tue  5 PM   5.8   5.7   5.6   5.6   5.6


&&

LAT...LON 2972 9812 2974 9809 2971 9809 2969 9812


$$

TXC091-187-011611-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0073.160531T2245Z-160601T1740Z/
/GBCT2.2.ER.160531T2245Z.160601T0000Z.160601T0540Z.NO/
512 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity... 
The flood warning continues for 
 the Guadalupe River At NB Below Comal.
* until Wednesday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled. 
* At  4:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and continue to rise 
  to near 14.3 feet by this evening.The river will fall below flood stage by 
  after midnight tomorrow.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding closes several roads, 
  streets and businesses in New Braunfels. Upstream River Road is extremely 
  dangerous..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun
 NB Below Comal     13   13   12.6   Tue  5 PM  12.7  12.4  12.3  12.3  12.3


&&

LAT...LON 2969 9812 2971 9809 2963 9801 2958 9797
      2952 9801 2959 9807             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
328 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
The first of many heavy rain episodes and storm complexes is
currently passing through the CWA. The evolution of this system,
which is a combination of high instability, high PWAT, mesocale
boundary interactions, and upper level shortwave disturbances will
be indicative of the next few days.

Hi-resolution models have been essentially guessing at how to
handle convective initiation and coverage over the last several
days...and with the exception of a decent HRRR handling of today's
activity, have not improved. Thus, basically the forecast has
heavily favored the synoptic models in conjunction with
collaboration with neighbors and regional offices.

Looking west of the current convection...IR satellite is showing
convection enhancing across New Mexico and south of the Big Bend
region. Believe this area will be round number 2 of heavy rain
potential overnight tonight. While this round will not have the
benefit of the higher instability from this afternoon, and a
somewhat worked over atmosphere, would expect this activity out
west to evolve into a mature MCS and move east into at least the
western half of the CWA late tonight into tomorrow morning.

There may be a lull in activity between the Wednesday morning
activity but it will likely only be brief as the atmosphere
destabilizes again into the afternoon and yet another shortwave
swings northeast across...again...the Big Bend and Edwards
Plateau.

It is extremely difficult to hone in on specific amounts
in any particular region, but given the antecedent conditions that
have been well advertised, the flash flooding risk will be
significant between now and Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The heavy rain and flooding threats continue Thursday as the main
upper low responsible for all of these shortwave disturbances
enters the state. By Thursday morning, focused upper level lift
associated with the right entrance region of the upper low will be
positioned from Del Rio to Waco. This, coupled with the same
moisture and instability considersations to today and Wednesday
will likely be our most significant heavy rainfall threat.

At the surface, the EURO and GFS both indicate the development of
a surface low over West Texas and pushes southeast along the Rio
Grande River. This will...yet again...provide a surface based
focus to additional heavy rain development Thursday afternoon and
as the main upper low begins to slow in its movement and becomes
more stagnant, could potentially result in training heavy rainfall
as well. This round could persist through Friday morning before
the heavy rain potential begins to finally wane Friday
evening...if the upper low does indeed move east as progged.

As a result...QPF values have further increased, now expected the
potential for 4-7 inches between now and Friday morning but with
the potential for some areas to reach as high as 15 inches before
this event is over with. If this estimate comes to fruition, flash
flooding impacts will be severe. And with so much uncertainty in
the positioning of certain variables, it is not possible to
highlight any one particular area for this threat. So all persons
in South Central Texas should prepare for the prospect of flash
flooding, perhaps extreme flash flooding, and make plans to be
potentially impacted.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  82  69  80  66 /  70  80  80  70  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  82  68  80  66 /  70  80  80  70  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  82  68  80  66 /  70  70  80  70  70
Burnet Muni Airport            67  79  66  78  64 /  70  80  80  70  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  86  69  84  66 /  70  80  80  60  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  80  67  79  64 /  70  80  80  70  60
Hondo Muni Airport             70  84  68  82  65 /  70  70  80  70  60
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  82  68  79  65 /  70  80  80  70  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  82  70  80  68 /  60  70  80  80  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  82  69  81  67 /  70  70  80  70  60
Stinson Muni Airport           72  83  70  82  68 /  70  70  80  70  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for the following
counties: Atascosa...Bandera...Bastrop...Bexar...Blanco...Burnet...
Caldwell...Comal...De Witt...Dimmit...Edwards...Fayette...Frio...
Gillespie...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...Karnes...Kendall...Kerr...
Kinney...Lavaca...Lee...Llano...Maverick...Medina...Real...Travis...
Uvalde...Val Verde...Williamson...Wilson...Zavala.

&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...TB3
Public Service/Data Collection...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
259 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-012000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
259 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL
RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME CASES WHICH WILL RESULT IN
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...RAPID RISES TO
ALREADY ELEVATED RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FLASH
FLOODING AND THE THREAT IS SIGNIFICANT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE EACH DAY. ENHANCED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. BETWEEN TODAY AND FRIDAY...MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW BECOMES ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER TEXAS.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT FOR THIS WEEK...A
FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE
WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND 60 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE. PLEASE STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AS IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL HAZARDS BECOME
MORE CLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

TB3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
340 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W LIVE OAK            29.56N  98.38W
05/31/2016                   BEXAR              TX   CITY OFFICIAL

            OLD OCONNOR RD AT LOOKOUT RD CLOSED DUE TO FLASH
            FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600517

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
343 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NEW BRAUNFELS           29.70N  98.12W
05/31/2016  M2.23 INCH       COMAL              TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            2.23 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT AN HOUR

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600518

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
346 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GRUENE                  29.74N  98.11W
05/31/2016                   COMAL              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WATER RELEASES FROM CANYON LAKE
            PLUS LOCAL RUNOFF FROM THUNDERSTORMS...THE GUADALUPE
            RIVER HAS GONE OVER THE GRUENE BRIDGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600519

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
347 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SSE SPRING BRANCH     29.79N  98.36W
05/31/2016  M2.47 INCH       COMAL              TX   COCORAHS

            2.47 INCHES OF RAIN IN 2.2 HOURS

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600520

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
351 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HEAVY RAIN       D'HANIS                 29.33N  99.28W
05/31/2016  M1.50 INCH       MEDINA             TX   PUBLIC

            1.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600521

CVP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
357 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

TXZ208-223-312145-
GONZALES TX-CALDWELL TX-
357 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND
NORTHEASTERN GONZALES COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 357 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LULING...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LULING...WAELDER...PALMETO...THOMPSONVILLE...NEWTONVILLE...OTTINE AND
MCNEIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2963 9714 2958 9768 2965 9763 2966 9765
      2967 9765 2967 9770 2968 9771 2970 9774
      2982 9736 2964 9713
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 259DEG 35KT 2968 9768

ALLEN