Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

Another evening of active weather looks to be in store for parts of
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri tonight as our active pattern
looks to continue through the weekend into next week.

For the rest of the afternoon and evening hours...our weather will
be dominated by a trough swinging northeast across the Central
Plains. As the trough lifts across the northwest corner of Missouri
the cold air swinging in aloft, and general accent along a front
advancing into northwest Missouri, have sparked thunderstorms along
the front. Storms moving off the front are heading north-northeast
but with the whole trough shifting northeast the front, and
associated storms, have already begun to move through northeast
Kansas into far northwest Missouri. The storms along this boundary
are expected to mostly affect areas along and north of I-35 from
Kansas City north to the Iowa border, but there will be a secondary
potential for storms farther east late this afternoon and evening as
the trough moves a little farther east and helps focus a bit more
moisture convergence across a warm front draped across northeast
Missouri.

Storms moving into northwest Missouri currently are working in an
environment with MLCAPE values in the 1000+ J/KG range with Effective
Bulk shear gradient of 30 to 40 knots. Add in low LCL height's with
the cold core of the trough swinging in aloft, and you have the
recipe for low topped severe thunderstorms with hail, wind and
isolated tornadoes all possible. That said, the tornado threat
itself looks best in north central to far northeast Missouri as you
move north of a line from Bethany to Moberly MO where surface winds
are backed north of the warm front. Additionally, precipitable
weather values continued to run rather high, so any storm that occurs
this afternoon or this evening will likely produce torrential rain.

Thursday and through the weekend...With the trough moving to our
northeast this evening, dragging a cold front across the region,
temperatures will be cooler in the days ahead, but given the time of
year saying it's going to be cooler is really just saying it's going
to be rather nice through the weekend into next week with highs in
the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. However, along with
eh cooler temperatures will come some potential for rain and
thunderstorms again starting Friday as another trough, currently
making landfall across California, will swing across the Central
Plains bringing another few days with storm chances. However,
today's trough and the cool air it is leaving behind is currently
expected to keep the more active or severe thunderstorm activity
located in areas well to our south. So, while we expected to get wet
this weekend the severe potential is not looking good.

And, because it's Spring, there looks to be another potential for
storms as we reach Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Though, the
mid-range and ensemble singles for this are looking a bit iffy this
far out, so confidence in when and or if precipitation return by the
middle of next week is a little low.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

A combination of VFR and MVFR conditions are prevailing across the
west Missouri terminals early this afternoon. The cloud cover is
expected to fill in bringing MVFR CIGs to all sites by 21Z along with
the threat for showers for a few hours. The KSTJ terminal, a bit
farther north, will also carry a TEMPO group for some thunderstorms
that could develop. Otherwise, once the vicinity storms move out MVFR
clouds will dominate of the reminder of the night into Thursday
morning with winds veering to the west late this afternoon and into
tonight.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
509 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
509 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SEVERAL PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
259 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             EFFINGHAM               39.52N 95.40W
04/27/2016  E1.00 INCH       ATCHISON           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
320 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     HAIL             LIBERTY                 39.25N 94.42W
04/27/2016  E0.88 INCH       CLAY               MO   STORM CHASER

&&

LAFLIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
327 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

KSZ104-MOZ028-029-272100-
WYANDOTTE KS-CLAY MO-PLATTE MO-
327 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WYANDOTTE...SOUTHEASTERN
PLATTE AND WEST CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 326 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR KANSAS SPEEDWAY...OR 2 MILES NORTH OF EDWARDSVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHAWNEE...GLADSTONE...BONNER SPRINGS...PARKVILLE...EDWARDSVILLE...
RIVERSIDE...WEATHERBY LAKE...LAKE QUIVIRA...KANSAS CITY...LAKE WAUKOMIS...
FERRELVIEW...PLATTE WOODS...NORTHMOOR...HOUSTON LAKE...POMEROY...MUNCIE...
WALDRON...MAYWOOD...KANSAS CITY INTL ARPT AND BEVERLY HILLS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3920 9482 3921 9478 3921 9482 3934 9478
      3931 9450 3904 9473 3904 9478 3907 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 207DEG 25KT 3910 9478

HAWBLITZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
331 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

KSZ103-272115-
LEAVENWORTH KS-
331 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LEAVENWORTH COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

AT 331 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TONGANOXIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEAVENWORTH...LANSING...TONGANOXIE...EASTON...RENO AND JARBALO.

THIS INCLUDES KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 206 AND 208.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3927 9518 3940 9510 3928 9488 3898 9518
      3899 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 220DEG 26KT 3912 9518

HAWBLITZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
334 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HAIL             6 NE BONNER SPRINGS     39.11N 94.80W
04/27/2016  E1.00 INCH       WYANDOTTE          KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

JLEIGHTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
337 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             MOUND CITY              40.14N 95.23W
04/27/2016  E1.00 INCH       HOLT               MO   PUBLIC

&&

LAFLIN