Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Kansas City, MO

334 
WWUS53 KEAX 270350
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1050 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MOC013-037-101-270415-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-160427T0415Z/
JOHNSON MO-CASS MO-BATES MO-
1050 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON...SOUTHEASTERN CASS AND NORTHEASTERN BATES
COUNTIES...

AT 1050 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HARRISONVILLE TO NEAR BUTLER...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARRISONVILLE...ADRIAN...GARDEN CITY...ARCHIE...EAST LYNNE...GUNN CITY...
PASSAIC...BALLARD AND LA TOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3872 9408 3830 9409 3830 9443 3862 9449
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 242DEG 38KT 3866 9431 3833 9428 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

WELSH

964 
WWUS53 KEAX 270356
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1056 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MOC013-037-101-270415-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-160427T0415Z/
JOHNSON MO-CASS MO-BATES MO-
1056 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON...SOUTHEASTERN CASS AND NORTHEASTERN BATES
COUNTIES...

AT 1056 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM EAST LYNNE TO 7 MILES EAST OF ADRIAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARRISONVILLE...ADRIAN...GARDEN CITY...ARCHIE...EAST LYNNE...GUNN CITY AND
LA TOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3838 9409 3839 9439 3862 9449 3872 9408
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 242DEG 38KT 3869 9425 3836 9422 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

WELSH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
640 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 432 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

Convection got started early this morning in response to a little
vorticity max crossing a stalled front roughly along I-70, then the
low level jet kicked in and helped organize the early morning cells
into a progressive bow echo that moved across Missouri, roughly
along a line from St Joseph and Kansas City east-southeast through
Sedalia and Boonville. Rain totals of 1 to 2 inches, with locally
higher amounts, where noted along the path of the bow echo along
with some hail and wind reports, which will all factor into the
forecast for this evening. Otherwise, the bow echo has left behind a
significantly strong enough cold pool to push the stalled front from
I-70 south of the forecast region this afternoon, placing the
outflow boundary across Allen and Bourbon counties in Kansas just to
the southwest of our area, wrapping back up into the surface low
still located across central Kansas. This outflow boundary will be
the focus for more convection late this afternoon and evening.

Rest of the afternoon...Atmospheric recovery along the outflow
boundary, and points southwest, have returned into the 3000+ J/KG
range with effective southwest shear values of 40+ knots. This has
proven more than sufficient to result in severe thunderstorms just to
our west with convection starting to bubble up again in south
central Kansas along the dry line -extending south from the Wichita-
and also along the outflow boundary from Concordia, KS southeast to
Mound City, KS. However currently, steering winds up through 850mb
are from due south with 700mb winds south-southeast. As a result the
storms are lifting north-northeast so it will take till some time
for more than isolated thunderstorm activity to spread back across
our section of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. As the parent
upper level trough lifts and pivots late tonight it will become
increasingly negatively tilted, allowing more cold air in aloft thus
keeping the atmosphere unstable well into the overnight hours. This
could help fuel storms late into the overnight hours, keeping the
severe potential going late into the night as the low level jet veers
over into northwest Missouri. As a result, severe weather is
favorable for both damaging winds and large hail along with isolated
tornadoes both early this evening and late tonight. Expect storms to
persist through much of the night with ongoing activity possibly
lingering through sunrise Wednesday. Additionally, heavy rain is
expected to accompany these storms, and given the rainfall this
morning -especially across northwestern Missouri and northeast
Kansas- we have issued a flash flood watch for tonight to cover areas
along the state line.

Speaking of Wednesday...morning activity should be lifting northeast
and then likely result in a break in convection by the late morning
hours. However, the parent upper level trough will be pivoting
across above northwest Missouri with cold air sliding in aloft.
Resulting steepening lapse rates and could result in some low topped
thunderstorms, particularly in northwest Missouri and adjacent areas
of northeast Kansas. However, working against these low topped
storms will be the fact that the parent low will push the jet axis
east putting the better shear to the east of where the low top
storms would be expected. But, this still leaves the possibility open
for low topped severe weather in areas near the Iowa border east and
southeast into northeast and central Missouri Wednesday afternoon.
Any stormy activity Wednesday will likely continue to the northeast
thus leaving the region storm free by Thursday.

Attention then turns towards the weekend as another trough exits the
Desert Southwest by moving northeast across the Plains States. This
trough currently looks to be trending just far enough south to take
the focus for severe weather and put it to our south. But, we could
still get plenty of storms starting again Friday and lasting through
at least Saturday with more storms possible into Sunday. We will
want to watch for flooding potential given the rainfall totals
expected this work week, but currently the sever threat for the
weekend looks low at this time.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

VFR conditions currently prevail at the terminals this evening which
will persist for the next couple of hours. Then a complex of
thunderstorms in eastern Kansas will push east into Missouri reaching
many of the terminals around 02Z this evening. CIGs under the storms
are still expected to mainly be in the MVFR range, though an arrant
IFR CIG or VIS can't be ruled out this evening when the strongest
storms are moving through. Otherwise, expect storms through the early
morning to mid-morning hours before activity moves off to the
northeast. Low clouds or scattered showers are advertise by some
models for the morning and afternoon hours Wednesday, but have held
off on adding them for now to the end of the TAF due to low
confidence.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ001>004-
     011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
534 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271045-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
534 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MORNING THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. A SECOND ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1021 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 PM     HAIL             SHAWNEE                 39.01N 94.81W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1026 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 PM     HAIL             6 SSE OLATHE            38.81N 94.78W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1028 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1011 PM     HAIL             OVERLAND PARK           38.98N 94.67W
04/26/2016  E0.75 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1030 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HAIL             5 S LENEXA              38.88N 94.74W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1037 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     HAIL             3 NNW CLEVELAND         38.72N 94.61W
04/26/2016  E1.75 INCH       CASS               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1042 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S RAYMORE             38.79N 94.45W
04/26/2016  E60 MPH          CASS               MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&