Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 427 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

Overnight convection has weakened in the predawn hours after the
airmass has stabilized substantially. Moderate to heavy rain will
continue through the early morning as the line of storms makes
steady progress to the east. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low
positioned across southwest Kansas as of Wednesday morning. This
will continue to spin to the northeast and center over southeast
Nebraska by the mid afternoon. Storms generated overnight will begin
to lift into northeast Missouri through the mid to late morning and
the majority of this activity should clear the area by the early
afternoon. Cloud cover should then begin to clear enough to
destabilize by the mid afternoon ahead of the attendant cold front
of the surface low stacked underneath the upper low across southeast
Nebraska. Areas most favorable for convection early on include
northern Missouri and areas west of the I-35 corridor. If modest
instability does develop as expected, bulk shear values of plus 40
kts will once again support strong to severe storms through the
afternoon. While the environment will not be as conducive for
widespread severe weather as Tuesday, large hail and damaging winds
are possible. The other concern is the potential for flash flooding
with the significant rainfall totals from Tuesday. Areas south of
the Kansas City metro should be influenced by a dry slot working its
way to the northeast ahead of the cold front. By the late afternoon,
the cold front will sweep across western Missouri with convection
along the frontal boundary possible for areas north of the Kansas
City metro. This activity will continue through much of the evening
hours before finally lifting into north Missouri after midnight.
Rain- cooled air and existing cloud clover should keep afternoon
highs on Wednesday in the upper 60s for areas north of I-70 with
temperatures approaching the mid 70s for points south.

Will see a break in the activity beginning Thursday with mid level
ridging expected to develop ahead of another deepening trough over
the southwestern CONUS. A cooler air mass will advect into the
region behind the cold front Wednesday, with slightly cooler than
normal temperatures persisting through the late week and into the
weekend, particularly for northern Missouri. The aforementioned
southwestern low will then swing northeast into the Central Plains
by Friday, bringing about the next chance for thunderstorms by
Friday afternoon/evening. Saturday looks to be the most active as a
surface warm front lifts into the region. At this time, cannot rule
out the potential for severe weather, though the more likely area
remains to the south. The active pattern will then continue into
next week with numerous features entering the area. Flood impacts
will need to be closely monitored as these events unfold.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours behind a
dissipating band of precipitation heading toward the east. Afternoon
thunderstorms are possible ahead of a cold front approaching from
eastern Kansas. These should remain relatively isolated for the
terminal sites, with perhaps more widespread development near KSTJ.
Ceilings should remain VFR during this time, though may periodically
decrease to MVFR within the stronger storms. Once these exit the area
in the late afternoon, conditions will improve with stratus likely
scattering out through the evening hours. Southerly winds will
gradually veer and become southwesterly behind the frontal boundary.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh

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