Small Craft Advisory 895, NWS Anchorage, AK

118 
FZAK51 PAFC 160034
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161345-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 997 MB LOW CENTERED 340 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND EXITS
TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WED
AND WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-161345-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-161345-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-161345-
RESURRECTION BAY-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-161345-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-161345-
PORT VALDEZ-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-161345-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-161345-
VALDEZ ARM-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-161345-
PASSAGE CANAL-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KTS NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4
FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161345-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-161345-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-161345-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 30 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-161345-
CHINIAK BAY-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-161345-
MARMOT BAY-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-161345-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-161345-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-161345-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-161345-
KACHEMAK BAY-
334 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

335 
FZAK51 PAFC 161257
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170145-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WED AFTERNOON BEFORE
EXITING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THU EVENING. A 1017 MB LOW
DEVELOPS 120 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING THU MORNING MOVES 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD FRI MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MOVES 60 NM SOUTH OF
SEWARD AT 1012 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-170145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-170145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-170145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5
FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-170145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-170145-
PORT VALDEZ-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-170145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-170145-
VALDEZ ARM-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-170145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-170145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-170145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-170145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 8
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-170145-
CHINIAK BAY-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-170145-
MARMOT BAY-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-170145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-170145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-170145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-170145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
357 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

089 
FZAK51 PAFC 170026
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171300-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU MORNING. A 1017
MB LOW DEVELOPS 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA THU MORNING AND
DRIFTS TO 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF CORDOVA AT 1013 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-171300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-171300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-171300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-171300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-171300-
PORT VALDEZ-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-171300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-171300-
VALDEZ ARM-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-171300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-171300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-171300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-171300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-171300-
CHINIAK BAY-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-171300-
MARMOT BAY-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-171300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-171300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-171300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-171300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
326 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

666 
FZAK51 PAFC 171249
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180145-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU MORNING. A 1017
MB LOW DEVELOPS 160 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA THIS MORNING AND DRIFTS
TO 100 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD AT 1011 MB LATE FRI NIGHT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-180145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-180145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-180145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-180145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-180145-
PORT VALDEZ-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-180145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-180145-
VALDEZ ARM-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-180145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-180145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-180145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-180145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-180145-
CHINIAK BAY-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-180145-
MARMOT BAY-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
1 FOOT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-180145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-180145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-180145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-180145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
443 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main upper level low in the area is over eastern Russia. There
are two significant troughs extending out of this low with one
over much of the state and into the Gulf of Alaska and the second
one in the western Bering Sea. The jet stream is running along
the southern periphery of these troughs and remains south of the
forecast area. The surface lows are located under these troughs
with the one in the Gulf of Alaska slowly weakening and moving
southeastward as it is not getting any upper level support. The
surface low near Attu will move into the northwest Bering Sea but
is being kept from strengthening by a low to the south that is
feeding into the upper level support from the jet stream and
therefore starving the low near Attu.
The atmosphere just to the lee of the Kenai, Chugach, and
Talkeetna mountains is under a significant inversion with areas
of below freezing air at the surface and above freezing air at
around the 1000 to 3000 ft level. More information as to the
potential impact of this set up in the Southcentral section below.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in better overall agreement than the past few days,
especially in the short term period. In particular both the GFS
and NAM are depicting the deformation zone over the Kuskokwim
Delta and a wave moving over the Kenai Peninsula which will bring
some precipitation the the Cook Inlet region this evening and
overnight. The past few days had model runs that were hit and miss
on this feature but a reasonable solution has been settled on by
the models.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...There is a chance for some marginal VFR ceilings this
evening as a wave moving through the area from the east pushes
over the airport. Precipitation type is expected to be rain with
this system but there remain a slight chance for freezing rain
with the onset of the precipitation this evening.
Light north winds will persist at the surface. There is a
possibility of wind shear overnight but levels should remain above the
2000 ft level if it occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The interaction of a surface trough with decent low level convergence
and an upper level wave crossing the northeast Gulf this afternoon
will intensify precipitation over Western Prince William Sound
early this evening, cross over the Kenai and Chugach mountains
later this evening. The trough and upper wave will rotate west
then southwest so the bulk of precip will cross the Kenai Peninsula.
Cross mountain flow will also increase, leading to some downslope
drying. Thus, Anchorage and the Mat Valley will see just a quick
shot of light precip.

The 00Z Anchorage Sounding has cooled over the past 24 hours, but
still supports rain near sea level. With a few pockets of surface
temps hovering near freezing, there may be a bit of freezing rain,
but do not expect it to be impactful. As you head north and west
to the Susitna Valley expect the warm air is shallow enough to
support mainly snow, perhaps mixed with rain or freezing rain over
the southern valley.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will approach from the west, with
arctic air beginning to cross into the Western Gulf tonight and
Cook Inlet and Susitna Valley Tuesday morning. This may be just
enough cooling to help change precip over to snow along the
Western Kenai Tuesday morning. The bigger impact will be strong
and gusty winds, especially across the Western Gulf and Kodiak
Island waters.

The semi-permanent low pressure which has been sitting over the
Gulf will exit the region Tuesday through Wednesday while the
approaching trough crosses Southcentral. This will lead to
clearing skies, cooler temperatures, and windy conditions in many
places as we head through the next couple days. There may be some
light snow or flurries right ahead of the trough axis, especially
along western facing slopes. Otherwise, it looks like the region
will settle into a cold and dry pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Snow showers that developed along a weak deformation zone over
the Kuskokwim Delta shifts slowly east through Tuesday afternoon
as an upper level wave elongates and moves in from the Bering
Strait. Northerly winds prevail inland through mid week...while
coastal areas become south to east on Tuesday. Ridging builds into
the Southwest Tuesday into Wednesday diminishing precipitation.
Temperature inversions just off the surface late night aid in
patchy fog development along the west coast tonight and then
across the Kuskokwim Valley Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Low pressure in the western Bering increases the pressure gradient
along the Alaska Peninsula and surrounding waters tonight as the
dominant low holds in the Gulf. The Bering low weakens as it
moves north Tuesday night and is followed by a stronger storm
force system on Wednesday. Precipitation will be a mix of rain and
snow as a warmer subtropical air mass feeds in from the North
Pacific and mixes with colder temperatures filtering in from the
Arctic.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Models are in good agreement through Thursday but by Friday
serious discrepancies become quite apparent. High pressure will
have built across much of mainland Alaska by Thursday with normal
to below normal temperatures returning to much of the state. This
high pressure will begin to displace eastward Thursday night as a
gale to possibly storm force front pushes further eastward across
the Bering Sea than expected yesterday. This frontal boundary is
expected to stall out and dissipate just off the west coast of
Alaska which will help to increase snow chances across Southwest
Alaska. At the same time, high pressure will then stall over
Southcentral Alaska as the front in the Bering Falls apart which
will keep the region on the dry and cold side. A tap of dry and
cold arctic air will continue filtering south through the extended
portion and with this dry air combined with subsidence from the
upper level ridge, any chances of snow in the next seven to ten
days looks negligible.

The Bering Sea will see all of the fun in the extended period as a
low just off the coast of Kamchatka on Thursday will drive a
powerful gale to storm force front across much of the Bering Sea.
Decent rainfall is expected along the frontal boundary as a tap of
warmer air and moisture from the North Pacific develops. This
front will fall apart Friday east of the Pribilof Islands but yet
another low pressure/front will move into the Bering Sea Friday
night/Saturday morning. Models are in terrible agreement with low
centers at times over 500 miles apart from time to time and model
run to model run so it's very difficult to give a good estimate to
where the low will move. However, based on the upper level
pattern, there is a very high likelihood this low develops but it
will be a few more days until we know where it will move.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 119 125 130 131 132 138 150 155 160 165 177 178 180 352
411.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...MC