Gale Warning 717, NWS Anchorage, AK

899 
FZAK52 PAFC 151235
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-160145-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY AND
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 999
MB LOW 125 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTH TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR WED. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A 970 MB LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED MORNING AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-160145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT EARLY DIMINISHING TO 35 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO
55 KT MAINLY IN THE MORNING OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-160145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT NW 35 KT DIMINISHING TO N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-160145-
BRISTOL BAY-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-160145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 30 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ170-160145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ171-160145-
UNALASKA BAY-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-160145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT EARLY BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-160145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ174-160145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ175-160145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ176-160145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ177-160145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ178-160145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT EARLY DIMINISHING TO W 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ179-160145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-160145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-160145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT EARLY BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-160145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
335 AM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

168 
FZAK52 PAFC 160046
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161345-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1001 MB LOW 280 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE
TO 150 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 1010 MB WED MORNING
AND DISSIPATE. A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE
TONIGHT AND TO THE CENTRAL BERING BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-161345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-161345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-161345-
BRISTOL BAY-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-161345-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-161345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-161345-
UNALASKA BAY-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-161345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-161345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-161345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ175-161345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-161345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ177-161345-
ADAK TO KISKA-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ178-161345-
KISKA TO ATTU-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-161345-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-161345-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-161345-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-161345-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 35 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
532 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The very large and persistent upper level low has shifted slightly
further east to extend from south of the Alaska Peninsula into
the Southwestern Gulf. Three low pressure centers are evident
within upper low with numerous fronts and troughs continuing to
pinwheel around it. The strongest portion of this complex weather
system remains the occluded front which stretches from the eastern
Bering across the Alaska Peninsula and continue to bring very
strong northerly winds...particularly through channeled terrain.
The frontal system inland extends from Southwest Alaska east-
northeast over the Alaska Range. Another trough along the northern
Gulf Coast is bringing showers to that area while a surface low
that rotated past Kodiak Island drops south. The next frontal
system which is spinning up is presently in the central Gulf and
is lifting quickly north.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good synoptic agreement regarding the larger
scale features, however smaller scale differences in the various
troughs spinning around the low remain impactful. The front and
following trough rotating through the northern Gulf and over the
Kenai Peninsula this afternoon and tonight are the biggest
challenges for todays forecast package. Models differ on how far
north the trough extends, how strong it is and how much moisture
overruns the Chugach Mountains and potentially spreads over
Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...East to southeast winds across the Chugach Mountains and
through Turnagain Arm are in the process of lightening this
morning. VFR conditions will prevail today with isolated showers
remaining along the mountains. Forecast uncertainty increases this
evening as a front rotates across the area bringing the potential
for rain and/or snow. The first chance will be in the late
afternoon or early evening and would likely be rather light with
a second possibly heavier band around 09Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A large low centered south of Kodiak Island remains the forecast
challenge for Southcentral this morning. A weak baroclinic zone
draped along the north Gulf coast is helping to support a low
level jet and gale force gusts. Gusts are expected to enhance
temporarily this morning as a wave pushes towards the east.
However, the low level jet will be reinforced tonight as a second
wave pushes through, and also brings the chance for precipitation
to Southcentral overnight. While cold air will begin to seep in
from the west tonight, currently it is not expected to push
through until after the precipitation has finished. In addition,
models indicate an orientation of the low level jet which is more
favorable for cross barrier flow and downsloping across Anchorage. Due
to the combination of expected downsloping and advection of a
warmer airmass from the gulf, precipitation type is expected to
remain mostly rain overnight. However, there is some uncertainty
in how much cold air may drain out of the Susitna valley. However,
a few quick inches of slushy snow cannot be ruled out for the
Anchorage Hillside tonight. Meanwhile, greater snow accumulations
are expected towards Thompson Pass where several inches of heavy
wet snow are expected by this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The low near Kodiak slowly moves in the direction of the
central and then southeastern Gulf through Tue. During this period
high pressure over the Bering will build and move east. The
pressure gradient between these features will maintain a band of
strong northerly winds across the eastern Bering and Alaska
Peninsula, diminishing on Tue as the strong gradient moves east.
Some rain and snow showers will persist over Southwest AK as well
as the Alaska Peninsula through early Tuesday. Meanwhile, the next
system moving across the western and northern Bering will push
light snow to the Kuskokwim Delta coast Tuesday into Tuesday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure builds into the central and eastern Bering through
Tue. This will push the band of strong northerly winds
from the eastern Aleutians into the Alaska Peninsula through Tue.
Some rain and snow showers will accompany this movement.

Immediately on its heels, a low pressure system will push snow
and rain north and east across the western and central Bering Sea
through at least mid-week, with mainly rain over the Central
Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

A relatively quiet pattern is in store for Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska through much of the extended forecast. An area of
low pressure in the southern Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday will fall
apart as it drifts eastward toward the Alaska Panhandle. As this
happens, rain/snow chances will drastically diminish across the
gulf coast and some breaks in cloud cover are expected through
much of next week. High pressure will build over the mainland in a
two-pronged attack fashion with both high pressure building
across the western Gulf of Alaska and Canada. The upper level
pattern will shift and allow colder air from the arctic to funnel
in across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. This will lead to the
end of above normal temperatures as continued cold air advection
likely drops temperature close to or slightly below normal across
much of the state. Unfortunately for snow enthusiasts, a lot of
dry air is expected with the colder air so snow looks like an
extreme long shot in the next seven to ten days.

The Bering Sea on the other hand will be quite active over the
long term forecast period as a series of lows move off the
Kamchatka Peninsula. Models are in good agreement with the first
low hanging off the coast of Kamchatka on Wednesday with a potent
gale force to storm force front moving across the western half of
the Bering Sea. Needless to say, copious amounts of rainfall are
expected with the frontal boundary as it shifts eastward before
stalling over the central Bering Sea as it clashes with the high
pressure mentioned earlier. The strongest low will move from the
North Pacific into the Bering Sea next weekend which has the
potential to produce gale to storm force winds but models are in
poor agreement with this feature at this time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm...150 155 Gale... 119 120 125 130 131 132 136 139
160 165 170 171 172 174 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...MC