Small Craft Advisory 894, NWS Anchorage, AK

168 
FZAK52 PAFC 160046
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161345-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1001 MB LOW 280 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE
TO 150 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 1010 MB WED MORNING
AND DISSIPATE. A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE
TONIGHT AND TO THE CENTRAL BERING BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-161345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-161345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-161345-
BRISTOL BAY-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-161345-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-161345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-161345-
UNALASKA BAY-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-161345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-161345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-161345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ175-161345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-161345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ177-161345-
ADAK TO KISKA-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ178-161345-
KISKA TO ATTU-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-161345-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-161345-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-161345-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-161345-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
346 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 35 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
443 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main upper level low in the area is over eastern Russia. There
are two significant troughs extending out of this low with one
over much of the state and into the Gulf of Alaska and the second
one in the western Bering Sea. The jet stream is running along
the southern periphery of these troughs and remains south of the
forecast area. The surface lows are located under these troughs
with the one in the Gulf of Alaska slowly weakening and moving
southeastward as it is not getting any upper level support. The
surface low near Attu will move into the northwest Bering Sea but
is being kept from strengthening by a low to the south that is
feeding into the upper level support from the jet stream and
therefore starving the low near Attu.
The atmosphere just to the lee of the Kenai, Chugach, and
Talkeetna mountains is under a significant inversion with areas
of below freezing air at the surface and above freezing air at
around the 1000 to 3000 ft level. More information as to the
potential impact of this set up in the Southcentral section below.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in better overall agreement than the past few days,
especially in the short term period. In particular both the GFS
and NAM are depicting the deformation zone over the Kuskokwim
Delta and a wave moving over the Kenai Peninsula which will bring
some precipitation the the Cook Inlet region this evening and
overnight. The past few days had model runs that were hit and miss
on this feature but a reasonable solution has been settled on by
the models.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...There is a chance for some marginal VFR ceilings this
evening as a wave moving through the area from the east pushes
over the airport. Precipitation type is expected to be rain with
this system but there remain a slight chance for freezing rain
with the onset of the precipitation this evening.
Light north winds will persist at the surface. There is a
possibility of wind shear overnight but levels should remain above the
2000 ft level if it occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The interaction of a surface trough with decent low level convergence
and an upper level wave crossing the northeast Gulf this afternoon
will intensify precipitation over Western Prince William Sound
early this evening, cross over the Kenai and Chugach mountains
later this evening. The trough and upper wave will rotate west
then southwest so the bulk of precip will cross the Kenai Peninsula.
Cross mountain flow will also increase, leading to some downslope
drying. Thus, Anchorage and the Mat Valley will see just a quick
shot of light precip.

The 00Z Anchorage Sounding has cooled over the past 24 hours, but
still supports rain near sea level. With a few pockets of surface
temps hovering near freezing, there may be a bit of freezing rain,
but do not expect it to be impactful. As you head north and west
to the Susitna Valley expect the warm air is shallow enough to
support mainly snow, perhaps mixed with rain or freezing rain over
the southern valley.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will approach from the west, with
arctic air beginning to cross into the Western Gulf tonight and
Cook Inlet and Susitna Valley Tuesday morning. This may be just
enough cooling to help change precip over to snow along the
Western Kenai Tuesday morning. The bigger impact will be strong
and gusty winds, especially across the Western Gulf and Kodiak
Island waters.

The semi-permanent low pressure which has been sitting over the
Gulf will exit the region Tuesday through Wednesday while the
approaching trough crosses Southcentral. This will lead to
clearing skies, cooler temperatures, and windy conditions in many
places as we head through the next couple days. There may be some
light snow or flurries right ahead of the trough axis, especially
along western facing slopes. Otherwise, it looks like the region
will settle into a cold and dry pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Snow showers that developed along a weak deformation zone over
the Kuskokwim Delta shifts slowly east through Tuesday afternoon
as an upper level wave elongates and moves in from the Bering
Strait. Northerly winds prevail inland through mid week...while
coastal areas become south to east on Tuesday. Ridging builds into
the Southwest Tuesday into Wednesday diminishing precipitation.
Temperature inversions just off the surface late night aid in
patchy fog development along the west coast tonight and then
across the Kuskokwim Valley Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Low pressure in the western Bering increases the pressure gradient
along the Alaska Peninsula and surrounding waters tonight as the
dominant low holds in the Gulf. The Bering low weakens as it
moves north Tuesday night and is followed by a stronger storm
force system on Wednesday. Precipitation will be a mix of rain and
snow as a warmer subtropical air mass feeds in from the North
Pacific and mixes with colder temperatures filtering in from the
Arctic.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Models are in good agreement through Thursday but by Friday
serious discrepancies become quite apparent. High pressure will
have built across much of mainland Alaska by Thursday with normal
to below normal temperatures returning to much of the state. This
high pressure will begin to displace eastward Thursday night as a
gale to possibly storm force front pushes further eastward across
the Bering Sea than expected yesterday. This frontal boundary is
expected to stall out and dissipate just off the west coast of
Alaska which will help to increase snow chances across Southwest
Alaska. At the same time, high pressure will then stall over
Southcentral Alaska as the front in the Bering Falls apart which
will keep the region on the dry and cold side. A tap of dry and
cold arctic air will continue filtering south through the extended
portion and with this dry air combined with subsidence from the
upper level ridge, any chances of snow in the next seven to ten
days looks negligible.

The Bering Sea will see all of the fun in the extended period as a
low just off the coast of Kamchatka on Thursday will drive a
powerful gale to storm force front across much of the Bering Sea.
Decent rainfall is expected along the frontal boundary as a tap of
warmer air and moisture from the North Pacific develops. This
front will fall apart Friday east of the Pribilof Islands but yet
another low pressure/front will move into the Bering Sea Friday
night/Saturday morning. Models are in terrible agreement with low
centers at times over 500 miles apart from time to time and model
run to model run so it's very difficult to give a good estimate to
where the low will move. However, based on the upper level
pattern, there is a very high likelihood this low develops but it
will be a few more days until we know where it will move.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 119 125 130 131 132 138 150 155 160 165 177 178 180 352
411.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...MC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
952 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

AKZ101-151200-
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
952 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

...LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET OR SNOW IS MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN THAT WAY WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED ICY ROADS AND WALKWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VERY SLIPPERY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIVERS AND
PEDESTRIANS SHOULD USE CAUTION.