Gale Warning 667, NWS Anchorage, AK

159 
FZAK62 PAFC 160039
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
339 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-161430-
339 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1001 MB LOW AT 58N 179E WILL MOVE TO 62N 176W AT 1010 MB WED
MORNING AND DISSIPATE. A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
LATE TONIGHT SPREADING TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT...THEN
TO THE CENTRAL BERING BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-161430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
339 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 25 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-161430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
339 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-161430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
339 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.SAT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-161430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
339 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 12 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

488 
FZAK62 PAFC 161235
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
335 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-170145-
335 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW AT 61N 178W WED MORNING MOVES TO 64N 178W AT 1011
MB WED AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. A FRONT TRACKS INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING WED AFTERNOON MOVES INTO CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS/BERING BY THU MORNING. THIS WEATHER FRONT TRACKS INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING WITH A LOW FORMING NEAR 58N 167W AT 1011 MB
FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-170145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
335 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT BUILDING TO 14 TO 22
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-170145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
335 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-170145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
335 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-170145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
335 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

796 
FZAK62 PAFC 170031
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
331 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-171430-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS MOVES
SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BY THU AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE
EASTERN WATERS ON FRIDAY. A 1009 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 58N 168W
EARLY FRI AND DRIFTS TO 58N 165W AND MAINTAINS STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ411-171430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-171430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-171430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-171430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

340 
FZAK62 PAFC 171239
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
339 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180245-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN BERING BY FRIDAY. A 1009 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 57N 167W
EARLY FRI AND DRIFTS TO 54N 156W WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. A 1000
MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES 51N 180W LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-180245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-180245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ413-180245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-180245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
339 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SW 10 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

435 
FZAK62 PAFC 180031
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
331 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-181445-
331 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN
BERING BY FRIDAY. A 1007 MB NORTH PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SAT MORNING AT 993 MB. A 993 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW QUICKLY
MOVES IN BEHIND THIS LOW NEAR 53N 177W AT 989 MB SAT AFTERNOON. A
1000 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW LATE FRI MOVES TO 53N 163W AT 988 MB SAT
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-181445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
331 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-181445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
331 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-181445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
331 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ414-181445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
331 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO
11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
443 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main upper level low in the area is over eastern Russia. There
are two significant troughs extending out of this low with one
over much of the state and into the Gulf of Alaska and the second
one in the western Bering Sea. The jet stream is running along
the southern periphery of these troughs and remains south of the
forecast area. The surface lows are located under these troughs
with the one in the Gulf of Alaska slowly weakening and moving
southeastward as it is not getting any upper level support. The
surface low near Attu will move into the northwest Bering Sea but
is being kept from strengthening by a low to the south that is
feeding into the upper level support from the jet stream and
therefore starving the low near Attu.
The atmosphere just to the lee of the Kenai, Chugach, and
Talkeetna mountains is under a significant inversion with areas
of below freezing air at the surface and above freezing air at
around the 1000 to 3000 ft level. More information as to the
potential impact of this set up in the Southcentral section below.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in better overall agreement than the past few days,
especially in the short term period. In particular both the GFS
and NAM are depicting the deformation zone over the Kuskokwim
Delta and a wave moving over the Kenai Peninsula which will bring
some precipitation the the Cook Inlet region this evening and
overnight. The past few days had model runs that were hit and miss
on this feature but a reasonable solution has been settled on by
the models.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...There is a chance for some marginal VFR ceilings this
evening as a wave moving through the area from the east pushes
over the airport. Precipitation type is expected to be rain with
this system but there remain a slight chance for freezing rain
with the onset of the precipitation this evening.
Light north winds will persist at the surface. There is a
possibility of wind shear overnight but levels should remain above the
2000 ft level if it occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The interaction of a surface trough with decent low level convergence
and an upper level wave crossing the northeast Gulf this afternoon
will intensify precipitation over Western Prince William Sound
early this evening, cross over the Kenai and Chugach mountains
later this evening. The trough and upper wave will rotate west
then southwest so the bulk of precip will cross the Kenai Peninsula.
Cross mountain flow will also increase, leading to some downslope
drying. Thus, Anchorage and the Mat Valley will see just a quick
shot of light precip.

The 00Z Anchorage Sounding has cooled over the past 24 hours, but
still supports rain near sea level. With a few pockets of surface
temps hovering near freezing, there may be a bit of freezing rain,
but do not expect it to be impactful. As you head north and west
to the Susitna Valley expect the warm air is shallow enough to
support mainly snow, perhaps mixed with rain or freezing rain over
the southern valley.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will approach from the west, with
arctic air beginning to cross into the Western Gulf tonight and
Cook Inlet and Susitna Valley Tuesday morning. This may be just
enough cooling to help change precip over to snow along the
Western Kenai Tuesday morning. The bigger impact will be strong
and gusty winds, especially across the Western Gulf and Kodiak
Island waters.

The semi-permanent low pressure which has been sitting over the
Gulf will exit the region Tuesday through Wednesday while the
approaching trough crosses Southcentral. This will lead to
clearing skies, cooler temperatures, and windy conditions in many
places as we head through the next couple days. There may be some
light snow or flurries right ahead of the trough axis, especially
along western facing slopes. Otherwise, it looks like the region
will settle into a cold and dry pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Snow showers that developed along a weak deformation zone over
the Kuskokwim Delta shifts slowly east through Tuesday afternoon
as an upper level wave elongates and moves in from the Bering
Strait. Northerly winds prevail inland through mid week...while
coastal areas become south to east on Tuesday. Ridging builds into
the Southwest Tuesday into Wednesday diminishing precipitation.
Temperature inversions just off the surface late night aid in
patchy fog development along the west coast tonight and then
across the Kuskokwim Valley Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Low pressure in the western Bering increases the pressure gradient
along the Alaska Peninsula and surrounding waters tonight as the
dominant low holds in the Gulf. The Bering low weakens as it
moves north Tuesday night and is followed by a stronger storm
force system on Wednesday. Precipitation will be a mix of rain and
snow as a warmer subtropical air mass feeds in from the North
Pacific and mixes with colder temperatures filtering in from the
Arctic.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Models are in good agreement through Thursday but by Friday
serious discrepancies become quite apparent. High pressure will
have built across much of mainland Alaska by Thursday with normal
to below normal temperatures returning to much of the state. This
high pressure will begin to displace eastward Thursday night as a
gale to possibly storm force front pushes further eastward across
the Bering Sea than expected yesterday. This frontal boundary is
expected to stall out and dissipate just off the west coast of
Alaska which will help to increase snow chances across Southwest
Alaska. At the same time, high pressure will then stall over
Southcentral Alaska as the front in the Bering Falls apart which
will keep the region on the dry and cold side. A tap of dry and
cold arctic air will continue filtering south through the extended
portion and with this dry air combined with subsidence from the
upper level ridge, any chances of snow in the next seven to ten
days looks negligible.

The Bering Sea will see all of the fun in the extended period as a
low just off the coast of Kamchatka on Thursday will drive a
powerful gale to storm force front across much of the Bering Sea.
Decent rainfall is expected along the frontal boundary as a tap of
warmer air and moisture from the North Pacific develops. This
front will fall apart Friday east of the Pribilof Islands but yet
another low pressure/front will move into the Bering Sea Friday
night/Saturday morning. Models are in terrible agreement with low
centers at times over 500 miles apart from time to time and model
run to model run so it's very difficult to give a good estimate to
where the low will move. However, based on the upper level
pattern, there is a very high likelihood this low develops but it
will be a few more days until we know where it will move.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 119 125 130 131 132 138 150 155 160 165 177 178 180 352
411.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...MC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
952 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

AKZ101-151200-
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
952 PM AKST MON NOV 14 2016

...LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET OR SNOW IS MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS ARE ABOVE FREEZING
AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN THAT WAY WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED ICY ROADS AND WALKWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VERY SLIPPERY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIVERS AND
PEDESTRIANS SHOULD USE CAUTION.