Small Craft Advisory 30, NWS Anchorage, AK

621 
FZAK51 PAFC 100021
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101300-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 980 MB LOW 230 NM SOUTH OF AKHIOK SUN MORNING MOVES TO 70 NM
SOUTHWEST OF AKHIOK BEFORE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA 
SUN EVENING. A 982 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY MON
MORNING MOVES TO 260 NM SOUTHEAST MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-101300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE 
TONIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ120-101300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY MIDDAY. 
SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT BY MIDDAY. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ121-101300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF 
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS 
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-101300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-101300-
PORT VALDEZ-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-101300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-101300-
VALDEZ ARM-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-101300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-101300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-101300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ132-101300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ136-101300-
CHINIAK BAY-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-101300-
MARMOT BAY-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS  14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ138-101300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-101300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT LATE TONIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT TOWARD MORNING. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-101300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY 
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-101300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
321 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 PM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS TODAY SHOW A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA WITH A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SIBERIA EXTENDING A TROUGH ALL
THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE JET STREAM IS MOVING THROUGH
THIS PATTERN GENERALLY IN A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
ALASKA. A 95 KT JET MAX IS MOVING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE ARCTIC WHILE A SECOND JET MAX CLOSER TO 110 KT IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SEVERAL SURFACE
FEATURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE ONE
OF MOST CONCERN TO THE FORECAST IS THE 971 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
BRINGING WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS THEY ROTATE
THROUGH. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH PAST FEATURES...THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE
HAS BEEN CHANGING OR MIXED AT MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE BERING SEA...THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH STILL HAS
SOME REMAINING COLD AIR AND WILL BRING SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AT LEAST UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED.

EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH GULF OF ALASKA AND EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE IN SOUTHCENTRAL.
THE 110 KT JET MAX MENTIONED EARLIER IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND WINDS ARE QUITE
GUSTY IN THE GULF THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE HIGH
OVER THE MAINLAND WILL KEEP THE MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL KEEP MOST OF THE EFFECTS FROM THIS FRONT
SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER COOK
INLET AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY IN SOME AREAS MAINLY IN COOK INLET.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE INITIALIZATION...HOWEVER
DIFFERENCES BEGIN WITH THE NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. NAM IS OFF TO THE RACES YET AGAIN...WITH A FASTER
SOLUTION THAT DIVERGES FROM THE GFS/EC MODELS. GFS HAS HAD MOST
CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT AND FUTURE LOWS THE BEST...SO IT WAS CHOSEN AS THE MODEL
OF THE DAY IN ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...TIMING OF THE TROUGHS AND
ASSOCIATED WINDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP CHANGES WILL BE A CHALLENGE
AS EVEN THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE. FOR THE BROAD
SCALE FEATURES THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ISSUE BUT FOR POINT
SPECIFIC FORECASTS IT WILL MAKE MORE OF A DIFFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL BRING STRONG WINDS
THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND RAIN TO THE COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. CROSS BARRIER FLOW
DURING THE EVENING WILL KEEP INTERIOR ZONES DOWNSLOPED AND FAIRLY
DRY...EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER THAT MAKES IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EXCEPT FOR INTERIOR ZONES...REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BERING WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY COASTAL AREAS OF
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW CROSSES
THE AKPEN AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OVER THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION. BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN KEEP A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A VERY SIMILAR SYSTEM BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BERING ON SUNDAY. THE WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL
BAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON REVOLVES
AROUND THE LONGEVITY OF BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING AS SNOW
DEVELOPS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO HOW LONG THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PIVOT TO A MORE OF A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT SAINT GEORGE
WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING BLOWING SNOW
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...SAINT PAUL COULD
SEE VISIBILITIES IMPROVE MUCH EARLIER ON SATURDAY IF WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND THE
CORE OF STRONGER WINDS MOVES JUST OFF TO THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AS MINOR
CHANGES IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP MUCH
OF THE BERING IN A SHOWERY REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ELONGATED NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BECOME A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA BY MIDWEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE BERING SEA IT
WILL SEND SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF. THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGION WILL RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION.
WHILE THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE WESTERN KENAI WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
DRIER CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH
MOSTLY ALL RAIN EXCEPT FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE INLAND
AREAS.

THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE THE REMNANTS OF A GALE FORCE
LOW SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE ANADYR GULF BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GOING INTO MONDAY. DURING THIS SAME TIME-FRAME A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. THESE TWO
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PHASE INTO ONE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THURSDAY. THIS BRING A SHOWERY
WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE MIDWEEK WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO
A NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EXTENDING INTO
THURSDAY. THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACKING
OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE GULF AND BERING SEA WITH
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 131 195.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119 120 130 131.
         GALE WARNING 125 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160
                      165 170 171 172 179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...PD