Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2016
Gale Warning 7, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Jan 9, 2016, 3:34 AM AKST. It was in force for 24 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 9, 2016, 3:34 AM AKST (12:34 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 10, 2016, 3:25 AM AKST
- In force
- 24 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
472 FZAK62 PAFC 091234 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 334 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-100245- 334 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 970 MB LOW AT 54N 155W MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO 58N 174W SUN MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 60N 176E AT 977 MB MON MORNING. A NORTH PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY SUN MORNING AND DISSIPATES EARLY MON. $$ PKZ411-100245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 334 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 .TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. .TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. .SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. .MON...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. .TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. $$ PKZ412-100245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 334 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .MON...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. .TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. $$ PKZ413-100245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 334 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON THROUGH WED...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. $$ PKZ414-100245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 334 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT E 2O TO 35 KT N OF 57N. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 10 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. .MON...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. .TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. $$
3 follow-up statements
349 FZAK62 PAFC 091234 CCA OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 334 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 CORRECTED AREA 414 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-100245- 334 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 970 MB LOW AT 54N 155W MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO 58N 174W SUN MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 60N 176E AT 977 MB MON MORNING. A NORTH PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY SUN MORNING AND DISSIPATES EARLY MON. $$ PKZ411-100245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 334 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 .TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. .TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. .SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. .MON...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. .TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. $$ PKZ412-100245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 334 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .MON...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. .TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. $$ PKZ413-100245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 334 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .MON THROUGH WED...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. $$ PKZ414-100245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 334 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT E 20 TO 35 KT N OF 57N. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 10 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. .MON...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. .TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. $$
549 FZAK62 PAFC 100003 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-101530- 303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 974 MB LOW AT 57N 166W MOVES TO 61N 175E AS A 986 MB LOW BY MON MORNING BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND DISSIPATING MON AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW NEAR 54N 152W MOVES TO 58N 159W AT 988 MB MON AFTERNOON. A 973 MB LOW AT 46N 151E MON MORNING MOVES TO 49N 159E AT THE SAME STRENGTH MON AFTERNOON. $$ PKZ411-101530- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 .TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. SNOW. .SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY S OF 57N. .MON...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. .MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. $$ PKZ412-101530- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT N OF 57N. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .SUN...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. .MON...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. .MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. $$ PKZ413-101530- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 177W. .MON...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. .MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. $$ PKZ414-101530- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT E 20 KT IN THE EVENING N OF 57N. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .SUN...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING S 10 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .SUN NIGHT...S TO W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. .MON...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. .MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. .THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. $$
488 FZAK62 PAFC 101225 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 325 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-110215- 325 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 974 MB LOW AT 58N 176W MOVES TO 61N 175E AS A 983 MB LOW BY MON MORNING BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND DISSIPATING. A 980 MB LOW NEAR 54N 151W MOVES TO 58N 158W AT 985 MB MON MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 62N 166W AT 988 MB TUE MORNING. A 967 MB LOW AT 48N 168E MON MORNING MOVES TO 49N 176E AND MAINTAINS STRENGTH TUE MORNING. $$ PKZ411-110215- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 325 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. .MON...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. .MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. .TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. $$ PKZ412-110215- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 325 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT NE 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT LATE MORNING N OF 57N. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW. .TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. .MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. .MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. .TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. $$ PKZ413-110215- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 325 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016 .TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. .MON...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. .MON NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. .TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. $$ PKZ414-110215- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 325 AM AKST SUN JAN 10 2016 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. .TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. .MON...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. .MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. .TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. .THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 8, 4:48 PM AKST, 10 hours 46 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 8, 4:48 PM AKST, 10 hours 46 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 PM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS TODAY SHOW A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA WITH A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SIBERIA EXTENDING A TROUGH ALL
THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE JET STREAM IS MOVING THROUGH
THIS PATTERN GENERALLY IN A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
ALASKA. A 95 KT JET MAX IS MOVING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE ARCTIC WHILE A SECOND JET MAX CLOSER TO 110 KT IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SEVERAL SURFACE
FEATURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE ONE
OF MOST CONCERN TO THE FORECAST IS THE 971 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
BRINGING WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS THEY ROTATE
THROUGH. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH PAST FEATURES...THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE
HAS BEEN CHANGING OR MIXED AT MANY LOCATIONS.
IN THE BERING SEA...THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH STILL HAS
SOME REMAINING COLD AIR AND WILL BRING SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AT LEAST UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED.
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH GULF OF ALASKA AND EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE IN SOUTHCENTRAL.
THE 110 KT JET MAX MENTIONED EARLIER IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND WINDS ARE QUITE
GUSTY IN THE GULF THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE HIGH
OVER THE MAINLAND WILL KEEP THE MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL KEEP MOST OF THE EFFECTS FROM THIS FRONT
SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER COOK
INLET AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY IN SOME AREAS MAINLY IN COOK INLET.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE INITIALIZATION...HOWEVER
DIFFERENCES BEGIN WITH THE NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. NAM IS OFF TO THE RACES YET AGAIN...WITH A FASTER
SOLUTION THAT DIVERGES FROM THE GFS/EC MODELS. GFS HAS HAD MOST
CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT AND FUTURE LOWS THE BEST...SO IT WAS CHOSEN AS THE MODEL
OF THE DAY IN ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...TIMING OF THE TROUGHS AND
ASSOCIATED WINDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP CHANGES WILL BE A CHALLENGE
AS EVEN THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE. FOR THE BROAD
SCALE FEATURES THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ISSUE BUT FOR POINT
SPECIFIC FORECASTS IT WILL MAKE MORE OF A DIFFERENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL BRING STRONG WINDS
THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND RAIN TO THE COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. CROSS BARRIER FLOW
DURING THE EVENING WILL KEEP INTERIOR ZONES DOWNSLOPED AND FAIRLY
DRY...EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER THAT MAKES IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EXCEPT FOR INTERIOR ZONES...REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH SUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BERING WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY COASTAL AREAS OF
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW CROSSES
THE AKPEN AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OVER THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION. BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN KEEP A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A VERY SIMILAR SYSTEM BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BERING ON SUNDAY. THE WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL
BAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON REVOLVES
AROUND THE LONGEVITY OF BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING AS SNOW
DEVELOPS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO HOW LONG THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PIVOT TO A MORE OF A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT SAINT GEORGE
WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING BLOWING SNOW
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...SAINT PAUL COULD
SEE VISIBILITIES IMPROVE MUCH EARLIER ON SATURDAY IF WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND THE
CORE OF STRONGER WINDS MOVES JUST OFF TO THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AS MINOR
CHANGES IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP MUCH
OF THE BERING IN A SHOWERY REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ELONGATED NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BECOME A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA BY MIDWEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE BERING SEA IT
WILL SEND SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF. THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGION WILL RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION.
WHILE THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE WESTERN KENAI WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
DRIER CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH
MOSTLY ALL RAIN EXCEPT FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE INLAND
AREAS.
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE THE REMNANTS OF A GALE FORCE
LOW SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE ANADYR GULF BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GOING INTO MONDAY. DURING THIS SAME TIME-FRAME A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. THESE TWO
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PHASE INTO ONE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THURSDAY. THIS BRING A SHOWERY
WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE MIDWEEK WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO
A NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EXTENDING INTO
THURSDAY. THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACKING
OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE GULF AND BERING SEA WITH
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDWEEK.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 131 195.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119 120 130 131.
GALE WARNING 125 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160
165 170 171 172 179 180 181 185.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...PDThe office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 3:00 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 61 hr | |
| Jan 8, 3:01 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 49 hr | |
| Jan 8, 3:01 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 13 hr | |
| Jan 8, 3:01 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 13 hr | |
| Jan 8, 3:48 PM AKST | Winter Weather Advisory | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Jan 8, 9:10 PM AKST | Freezing Rain Advisory | AFC | 13 hr | |
| Jan 8, 9:46 PM AKST | Freezing Rain Advisory | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Jan 9, 3:42 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 11 hr | |
| Jan 9, 3:44 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 11 hr | |
| Jan 9, 3:49 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Jan 9, 3:49 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 12 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.