Freezing Rain Advisory 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

165 
WWAK41 PAFC 091414
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
514 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016


AKZ101-092000-
/O.CON.PAFC.ZR.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160109T2000Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
514 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATION...ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. 

* ICE ACCUMULATION...UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS
  THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WITH RAIN FREEZING ON CONTACT ON ROADS AND
  AND WALKWAYS. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT SHOULD END BY LATE
  MORNING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
  AREA.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY 
  ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

AKZ111-092000-
/O.CON.PAFC.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160109T2000Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON
514 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATION...MAINLY SOUTH OF PALMER AND ALONG THE GLENN HIGHWAY.

* ICE ACCUMULATION...UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING AS
  TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY 
  ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

AKZ131-100300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0002.160109T1500Z-160110T0300Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
514 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR THOMPSON PASS...

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...UP TO 8 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...EAST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* TIMING...BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND TAPER OFF BY
  EVENING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE 
  LIMITED IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW
AROUND. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

&&

$$

822 
WWAK41 PAFC 091844
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
944 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

AKZ101-091945-
/O.CAN.PAFC.ZR.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160109T2000Z/
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA
944 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. 


$$

AKZ111-091945-
/O.CAN.PAFC.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160109T2000Z/
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON
944 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. 


$$

AKZ131-100300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160110T0300Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
944 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR THOMPSON PASS...

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...UP TO 8 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* TIMING...BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND TAPER
  OFF BY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE 
  LIMITED IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW
AROUND. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 PM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS TODAY SHOW A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA WITH A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SIBERIA EXTENDING A TROUGH ALL
THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE JET STREAM IS MOVING THROUGH
THIS PATTERN GENERALLY IN A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
ALASKA. A 95 KT JET MAX IS MOVING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE ARCTIC WHILE A SECOND JET MAX CLOSER TO 110 KT IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SEVERAL SURFACE
FEATURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE ONE
OF MOST CONCERN TO THE FORECAST IS THE 971 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
BRINGING WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS THEY ROTATE
THROUGH. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH PAST FEATURES...THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE
HAS BEEN CHANGING OR MIXED AT MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE BERING SEA...THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH STILL HAS
SOME REMAINING COLD AIR AND WILL BRING SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AT LEAST UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED.

EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH GULF OF ALASKA AND EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE IN SOUTHCENTRAL.
THE 110 KT JET MAX MENTIONED EARLIER IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND WINDS ARE QUITE
GUSTY IN THE GULF THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE HIGH
OVER THE MAINLAND WILL KEEP THE MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL KEEP MOST OF THE EFFECTS FROM THIS FRONT
SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER COOK
INLET AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY IN SOME AREAS MAINLY IN COOK INLET.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE INITIALIZATION...HOWEVER
DIFFERENCES BEGIN WITH THE NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. NAM IS OFF TO THE RACES YET AGAIN...WITH A FASTER
SOLUTION THAT DIVERGES FROM THE GFS/EC MODELS. GFS HAS HAD MOST
CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT AND FUTURE LOWS THE BEST...SO IT WAS CHOSEN AS THE MODEL
OF THE DAY IN ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...TIMING OF THE TROUGHS AND
ASSOCIATED WINDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP CHANGES WILL BE A CHALLENGE
AS EVEN THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE. FOR THE BROAD
SCALE FEATURES THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ISSUE BUT FOR POINT
SPECIFIC FORECASTS IT WILL MAKE MORE OF A DIFFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL BRING STRONG WINDS
THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND RAIN TO THE COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. CROSS BARRIER FLOW
DURING THE EVENING WILL KEEP INTERIOR ZONES DOWNSLOPED AND FAIRLY
DRY...EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER THAT MAKES IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EXCEPT FOR INTERIOR ZONES...REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BERING WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY COASTAL AREAS OF
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW CROSSES
THE AKPEN AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OVER THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION. BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN KEEP A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A VERY SIMILAR SYSTEM BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BERING ON SUNDAY. THE WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL
BAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON REVOLVES
AROUND THE LONGEVITY OF BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING AS SNOW
DEVELOPS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO HOW LONG THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PIVOT TO A MORE OF A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT SAINT GEORGE
WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING BLOWING SNOW
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...SAINT PAUL COULD
SEE VISIBILITIES IMPROVE MUCH EARLIER ON SATURDAY IF WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND THE
CORE OF STRONGER WINDS MOVES JUST OFF TO THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AS MINOR
CHANGES IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP MUCH
OF THE BERING IN A SHOWERY REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ELONGATED NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BECOME A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA BY MIDWEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE BERING SEA IT
WILL SEND SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF. THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGION WILL RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION.
WHILE THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE WESTERN KENAI WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
DRIER CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH
MOSTLY ALL RAIN EXCEPT FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE INLAND
AREAS.

THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE THE REMNANTS OF A GALE FORCE
LOW SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE ANADYR GULF BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GOING INTO MONDAY. DURING THIS SAME TIME-FRAME A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. THESE TWO
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PHASE INTO ONE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THURSDAY. THIS BRING A SHOWERY
WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE MIDWEEK WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO
A NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EXTENDING INTO
THURSDAY. THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACKING
OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE GULF AND BERING SEA WITH
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 131 195.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119 120 130 131.
         GALE WARNING 125 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160
                      165 170 171 172 179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...PD