Small Craft Advisory 29, NWS Anchorage, AK

165 
FZAK52 PAFC 100003
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-101330-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 MB LOW 150 NM EAST OF ST PAUL ISLAND MOVES TO THE NORTHERN
KAMCHATKA COAST AS A 986 MB LOW BY MON MORNING BEFORE MOVING
ONSHORE AND DISSIPATING MON AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW 230 NM SOUTH
OF AKHIOK MOVES TO 50 NM NORTH OF PILOT POINT AT 988 MB MON
AFTERNOON. A 973 MB LOW 600 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU MON MORNING
MOVES TO 310 NM SOUTHWEST OF ATTU AT THE SAME STRENGTH MON
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-101330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF CHIRIKOF
ISLAND...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT
9 FT W OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT NW 30 KT W OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ155-101330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ160-101330-
BRISTOL BAY-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-101330-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT SW 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
15 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NW 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 11
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NW 30 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ170-101330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-101330-
UNALASKA BAY-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-101330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-101330-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-101330-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-101330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF ATKA.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF ATKA.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-101330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF ATKA.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF ATKA.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-101330-
ADAK TO KISKA-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-101330-
KISKA TO ATTU-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-101330-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE EVENING N
OF SAINT GEORGE. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING W 10 KT. SEAS
10 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ180-101330-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 25 KT S OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS 9
FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NW 30 KT S OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ181-101330-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-101330-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
303 PM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 40 KT.
SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 PM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS TODAY SHOW A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA WITH A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SIBERIA EXTENDING A TROUGH ALL
THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE JET STREAM IS MOVING THROUGH
THIS PATTERN GENERALLY IN A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
ALASKA. A 95 KT JET MAX IS MOVING THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
AND INTO THE ARCTIC WHILE A SECOND JET MAX CLOSER TO 110 KT IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SEVERAL SURFACE
FEATURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE ONE
OF MOST CONCERN TO THE FORECAST IS THE 971 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
BRINGING WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS THEY ROTATE
THROUGH. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH PAST FEATURES...THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE
HAS BEEN CHANGING OR MIXED AT MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE BERING SEA...THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH STILL HAS
SOME REMAINING COLD AIR AND WILL BRING SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AT LEAST UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED.

EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC FRONT IS MOVING
THROUGH GULF OF ALASKA AND EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE IN SOUTHCENTRAL.
THE 110 KT JET MAX MENTIONED EARLIER IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND WINDS ARE QUITE
GUSTY IN THE GULF THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE HIGH
OVER THE MAINLAND WILL KEEP THE MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL KEEP MOST OF THE EFFECTS FROM THIS FRONT
SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER COOK
INLET AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
GUSTY IN SOME AREAS MAINLY IN COOK INLET.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE INITIALIZATION...HOWEVER
DIFFERENCES BEGIN WITH THE NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. NAM IS OFF TO THE RACES YET AGAIN...WITH A FASTER
SOLUTION THAT DIVERGES FROM THE GFS/EC MODELS. GFS HAS HAD MOST
CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE
CURRENT AND FUTURE LOWS THE BEST...SO IT WAS CHOSEN AS THE MODEL
OF THE DAY IN ALL AREAS. HOWEVER...TIMING OF THE TROUGHS AND
ASSOCIATED WINDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP CHANGES WILL BE A CHALLENGE
AS EVEN THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE. FOR THE BROAD
SCALE FEATURES THIS WILL NOT BE A HUGE ISSUE BUT FOR POINT
SPECIFIC FORECASTS IT WILL MAKE MORE OF A DIFFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL BRING STRONG WINDS
THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND RAIN TO THE COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. CROSS BARRIER FLOW
DURING THE EVENING WILL KEEP INTERIOR ZONES DOWNSLOPED AND FAIRLY
DRY...EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER THAT MAKES IT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EXCEPT FOR INTERIOR ZONES...REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BERING WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY COASTAL AREAS OF
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW CROSSES
THE AKPEN AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OVER THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION. BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN KEEP A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A VERY SIMILAR SYSTEM BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BERING ON SUNDAY. THE WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS BRISTOL
BAY...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON REVOLVES
AROUND THE LONGEVITY OF BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING AS SNOW
DEVELOPS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO HOW LONG THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PIVOT TO A MORE OF A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT SAINT GEORGE
WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING BLOWING SNOW
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...SAINT PAUL COULD
SEE VISIBILITIES IMPROVE MUCH EARLIER ON SATURDAY IF WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND THE
CORE OF STRONGER WINDS MOVES JUST OFF TO THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AS MINOR
CHANGES IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS
ON THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP MUCH
OF THE BERING IN A SHOWERY REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ELONGATED NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND AND EXTEND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BECOME A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA BY MIDWEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE BERING SEA IT
WILL SEND SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF. THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGION WILL RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION.
WHILE THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE WESTERN KENAI WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE
DRIER CONDITIONS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH
MOSTLY ALL RAIN EXCEPT FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE INLAND
AREAS.

THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE THE REMNANTS OF A GALE FORCE
LOW SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE ANADYR GULF BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GOING INTO MONDAY. DURING THIS SAME TIME-FRAME A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. THESE TWO
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PHASE INTO ONE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THURSDAY. THIS BRING A SHOWERY
WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE MIDWEEK WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO
A NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EXTENDING INTO
THURSDAY. THE MODELS STRUGGLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACKING
OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE GULF AND BERING SEA WITH
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 131 195.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119 120 130 131.
         GALE WARNING 125 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160
                      165 170 171 172 179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...PD