Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Albuquerque, NM

238 
WWUS55 KABQ 151924
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
124 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMC005-151945-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-160915T1945Z/
CHAVES-
124 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES COUNTY...

AT 123 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ELK...OR 29 MILES EAST OF CLOUDCROFT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
THIS IS A NEW STORM IN THE WARNING. THE ORIGINAL STORM HAS WEAKENED. 

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3289 10530 3307 10526 3306 10470 3296 10471
      3296 10484 3278 10485
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 283DEG 18KT 3300 10523 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1200 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT to ISOLD storms are expected N of I-40 today, with SCT to
NMRS convection S of the interstate. Most of the activity will be
found E of the CONTDVD, and esepecially E of the central MT chain.
Some storms may turn severe across the plains. S and SE low level
winds may keep low level humidities moist enough for a return of
late night/early morning patchy MVFR and IFR conditions mainly
along and E of the Pecos River from the Caprock southward.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Subtropical moisture will continue to flow northward over northern
and central New Mexico today. The atmosphere will destabilize and
allow showers and thunderstorms to form favoring central and
eastern areas this afternoon and tonight. Another round of severe
weather will be possible across the east. A back door cold front
will impact eastern portions of the forecast area on Friday and
focus the storms there. Moisture levels will gradually dry during
the weekend as a Pacific low reforms well to the west and
southwest of the state. Temperatures will gradually warm during
this period and return to near normal status by Sunday. Moisture
will eventually flow northward back over the state sometime next
week. This is when the Pacific low draws closer to the state.
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase as a result.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Near term weather highlights include another round of severe
storms possible this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles and
moisture levels change only slightly compared to yesterday and
early this morning. Models really pointing towards enhanced storm
activity across central areas so bought off on this and increased
PoP's for the Rio Grande Valley.

Gradual drying trend across the western half on Friday although a
back door cold front will provide a catalyst for storm coverage
across the east.

The weekend is now looking more and more dry with warmer
temperatures. This is especially so across western/central areas. The
models have been hinting at a cut off low over southern
Calif/northern Baja for awhile but they like to jump around on the
position.

The above mentioned low is expected to usher higher moisture
levels northward and over the state as next week progresses. How
much is still a big question. Expect the low position to bounce
around a bit. ECMWF maintains more tropical influence from a
system moving northward along the coastline. The GFS is much less
bullish in the northward moving tropical system.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper low near Yellowstone NP will continue to the east northeast
today and tonight, while the broad southward-extending trough
fills as it comes across the central Rockies, scraping north NM.
As a result the flow aloft will have more of a westerly component,
dragging some drier air into west NM. While low lvl moisture is a
bit less across much of central NM either side of the Sandias and
Manzanos computer fcst models, espec the NAM still indicated some
spotty showers and storms developing across or just west of the
Rio Grande Valley. There is some potential that less will develop
than models indicate, but what does develop may be bordering on
dry or at least have pretty small wetting footprints. Farther west
very few or no storms are expected today through Sat and perhaps
even Sun, though the Gila region may wet up a little Sat or Sun.
The eastern plains and west to the east slopes of the central mtn
chain will still have a good chance of showers and storms today and
Fri, a few of which may again be quite strong to severe, plus any
storm will have heavy rain potential. A back door cold front
pushing south and west across the east half of the state Fri will
help to fire additional storms in the east. Aftn temps will be
higher for most areas Thu and Fri, except a modest cooldown of just
a few degrees in the far northeast Fri. RH values will lower a
little each day, except some modest rises behind the back door
front. No ventilation concerns with mostly good to excellent
values, the except will be Sun and Mon when most locales should see
at least one category reduction.

Yet another west coast trough aloft will drop down over or just
west of the northern Baja CA area over the weekend. It is depicted
by most fcst models to drift even a little farther offshore Sun and
Mon, then weaken a bit as it heads toward the sw U.S. in the Tue to
Tues night period, though this timing could be a bit fast. With the
low so far west of the state over the weekend into Mon, high
pressure ridge aloft will build over the state which will limit
wetting rains across the state, espec. west then north NM. Moisture
from the advancing closed low turned trough should reach NM in the
Tue to Wed period with a potentially significant spike in showers
and storms for a good portion, if not all, of the fcst area. ECMWF
model is still a little slower than the GFS model with this
scenario. High temps will be mostly at or below normal Sat then
near to above normal from Sunday on.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
609 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ501>540-161200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
609 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT BUT
CANT RULE OUT A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SEVERE STORMS.

50

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1124 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ523-533-151800-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
1124 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GUADALUPE AND EAST
CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL NOON MDT...

AT 1124 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTH OF VAUGHN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VAUGHN.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 285 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 187 AND 204.

&&

LAT...LON 3440 10489 3434 10533 3453 10540 3473 10500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1724Z 244DEG 33KT 3445 10526

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1212 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ522-523-151845-
ESTANCIA VALLEY-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-
1212 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTY
UNTIL 1245 PM MDT...

AT 1212 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES EAST OF ESTANCIA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
TORRANCE COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR YOUR PREFERRED
MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 10593 3487 10596 3496 10565 3470 10558
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 259DEG 12KT 3480 10586

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1229 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ507-519-151900-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS-
1229 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BERNALILLO AND
NORTHWESTERN VALENCIA COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM MDT...

AT 1229 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MESITA...OR 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAGUNA PUEBLO...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
BERNALILLO AND NORTHWESTERN VALENCIA COUNTIES.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3471 10721 3483 10729 3501 10702 3477 10686
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 258DEG 20KT 3479 10716

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1234 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ539-151900-
EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-
1234 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL
100 PM MDT...

AT 1234 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 22
MILES NORTHEAST OF ENCINOSO...OR 29 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CORONA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL
LINCOLN COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR YOUR PREFERRED
MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3386 10534 3405 10529 3402 10492 3375 10500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 284DEG 16KT 3395 10523

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1234 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ526-539-151900-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-
1234 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL
100 PM MDT...

AT 1234 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES EAST OF LINCOLN...OR 26 MILES NORTHEAST OF RUIDOSO...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PICACHO...ARABELA AND SUNSET.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR YOUR PREFERRED
MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 10537 3361 10532 3358 10495 3331 10503
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 284DEG 16KT 3351 10527

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1237 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ540-151915-
SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
1237 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES COUNTY UNTIL
115 PM MDT...

AT 1237 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF ELK...OR 28 MILES EAST OF CLOUDCROFT...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELK.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR YOUR PREFERRED
MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3290 10535 3296 10533 3296 10531 3301 10532
      3309 10530 3307 10492 3279 10501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 284DEG 16KT 3299 10524

34