Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1139 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are generally forecast to persist, with
a couple of exceptions. Short-lived MVFR conditions are likely
with isolated storms across eastern New Mexico overnight and may
impact KTCC or KROW. Otherwise, MVFR cigs are forecast to
redevelop late tonight at KTCC and KROW, with improvement between
15-18z. Chances for thunderstorm impacts at KAEG, KABQ and KSAF
will be improved Thursday afternoon/evening relative to today.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 PM MDT WED SEP 14 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to favor eastern New
Mexico through the evening. Some storms may be strong or severe
with large hail the main threat. Drier air will move into the
north and west on Thursday, limiting storm coverage in those areas,
however, there will still be plenty of moisture to work with
across eastern New Mexico for at least scattered storms. Once
again, some storms may be strong or severe. Another back door
front will slide into the plains on Friday, which will provide the
focus for another round of thunderstorms. Quite a bit of
uncertainty remains regarding the progression of a storm system
and its impacts on New Mexico next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong storms have erupted just east of the central mtn chain this
afternoon. Storms will continue to move E/NE into greater
instability. SPC Mesoanalysis shows 2000-3000 surface based CAPE and
decent shear which will allow strong to severe storms to develop
through the evening across the plains. Large hail will be the main
threat, although heavy rain, gusty winds and a brief tornado are
also possible.

Drier air will move into the north and west on Thursday, shifting
the main focus for thunderstorms a bit south and east. Similar to
today, there will be ample instability for strong or severe storms,
though directional shear may not be as good until the evening with
diurnal backing.

A weak back door front is still slated to slide down the plains on
Friday. Storms will favor areas along the leading edge of the front
as well as along the central mtn chain should the front back up to
it. Could still be a few strong storms across the southeast plains
during Fri aftn/eve.

All eyes will then be on the upper level trough over the Great Basin
Friday night and beyond. Looks like the system will dive over SoCal
Friday through Saturday, then will continue to migrate S or SW as it
becomes cut off from the main flow on Sunday. Given how far west the
system will be, the moisture moving up into NM doesn't look to be as
good as it once was on Sunday, though there will still be a good
amount of storms across the east on Saturday.  Drier air will
actually move into the state on Sunday.

Confidence continues to be abnormally low early next week as models
continue to diverge on when the system will be kicked back into NM.
The GFS remains the more progressive of the extended models, moving
the low northeast as early as Monday and crossing NM on Tuesday and
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is quite different. It brings a tropical
system toward the low off the west coast of the Baja through Tuesday
and merges the systems before they weaken/dampen as they shift
eastward across NM Wed/Thur. With such significant differences, PoPs
in the extended remain low until more confidence is gained.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Large storm over southeast ID will move northeast and reach western
ND by late Thursday. A trough will linger over the Southwest into
the weekend, while a closed low forms over Baja CA. The low will
move northeast and impact NM early to mid next week.

Plenty of moisture remains over the state this afternoon with
widespread showers and some thunderstorms continuing to develop.
This activity will continue well into the night across the east,
where a few strong to severe storms may occur. Rh recoveries tonight
will be excellent, except good in the far northwest.

With the storm lifting northeast Thursday, the flow aloft will turn
just a bit more westerly, allowing some drier air to inch into
western NM. This trend will continue on Friday as well. This will
mean fewer showers and storms across the west, but have no impact on
the convection in the east. A few storms may be strong to severe
across the eastern plains either day. A back door cold front will
help to focus storms in the east on Friday. Temperatures will be
higher for most areas Thursday and Friday, except cooler in the far
northeast Friday. Meanwhile Rh values will lower a little each day.
No ventilation concerns with mostly good to excellent values.

A closed low will form over northern Baja, CA Saturday. It will
probably retrograde southwest offshore for a while, then head toward
NM early next week. With the flow aloft backing to the southwest
again over the weekend, decent storm coverage should continue at
least in the east and south. Moisture from the advancing closed low
will then reach NM early next week with an active period from late
Monday through Tuesday night. That's according to the GFS, which is
much faster with this low than the ECMWF, which waits until next
Wednesday into Thursday to bring in the enhanced moisture and
convection. High temperatures will be mostly at or below normal
Saturday then near to above normal from Sunday on. Vent rates will
remain good to excellent Saturday, then lower Sunday through early
next week, with patches of poor rates mostly in the middle and
northwest valleys.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
608 AM MDT WED SEP 14 2016

NMZ501>540-151215-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
608 AM MDT WED SEP 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 2 PM MDT TO 10 PM MDT
BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO SEVERE
STORMS.

50

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1234 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ530-150715-
UNION COUNTY-
1234 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL
115 AM MDT...

AT 1234 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CLAYTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLAYTON AND SENECA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 10304 3632 10304 3624 10348 3648 10347
      3670 10301 3668 10300 3650 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 0634Z 245DEG 28KT 3646 10327

CA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
104 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ530>532-150745-
EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-UNION COUNTY-HARDING COUNTY-
104 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL UNION...
NORTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL AND HARDING COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM MDT...

AT 104 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES NORTHWEST OF HAYDEN...OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF AMISTAD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOSQUERO...CONCHAS DAM...BUEYEROS...SOLANO...
CONCHAS LAKE STATE PARK...ROSEBUD AND BELL RANCH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3574 10337 3569 10338 3536 10422 3570 10446
      3573 10438 3575 10438 3627 10346 3574 10330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0704Z 215DEG 34KT 3614 10346

CA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
118 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ530-150800-
UNION COUNTY-
118 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL
200 AM MDT...

AT 118 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLAYTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLAYTON AND SENECA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 10304 3623 10304 3610 10340 3632 10350
      3668 10311 3651 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 0718Z 221DEG 39KT 3628 10333

CA

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