Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Albuquerque, NM

287 
WWUS55 KABQ 151839
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1239 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMC019-027-151900-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-160915T1900Z/
LINCOLN-GUADALUPE-
1239 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES...

AT 1239 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES NORTHWEST
OF RAMON...OR 18 MILES SOUTH OF VAUGHN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 285 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 180 AND 184.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3412 10508 3426 10528 3434 10528 3440 10523
      3435 10489
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 261DEG 14KT 3434 10514 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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888 
WWUS55 KABQ 151854
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1254 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMC019-027-151904-
/O.EXP.KABQ.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-160915T1900Z/
LINCOLN-GUADALUPE-
1254 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 100 PM MDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

LAT...LON 3412 10508 3426 10528 3434 10528 3440 10523
      3435 10489
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 319DEG 12KT 3434 10514 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1200 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT to ISOLD storms are expected N of I-40 today, with SCT to
NMRS convection S of the interstate. Most of the activity will be
found E of the CONTDVD, and esepecially E of the central MT chain.
Some storms may turn severe across the plains. S and SE low level
winds may keep low level humidities moist enough for a return of
late night/early morning patchy MVFR and IFR conditions mainly
along and E of the Pecos River from the Caprock southward.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Subtropical moisture will continue to flow northward over northern
and central New Mexico today. The atmosphere will destabilize and
allow showers and thunderstorms to form favoring central and
eastern areas this afternoon and tonight. Another round of severe
weather will be possible across the east. A back door cold front
will impact eastern portions of the forecast area on Friday and
focus the storms there. Moisture levels will gradually dry during
the weekend as a Pacific low reforms well to the west and
southwest of the state. Temperatures will gradually warm during
this period and return to near normal status by Sunday. Moisture
will eventually flow northward back over the state sometime next
week. This is when the Pacific low draws closer to the state.
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase as a result.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Near term weather highlights include another round of severe
storms possible this afternoon and evening. Shear profiles and
moisture levels change only slightly compared to yesterday and
early this morning. Models really pointing towards enhanced storm
activity across central areas so bought off on this and increased
PoP's for the Rio Grande Valley.

Gradual drying trend across the western half on Friday although a
back door cold front will provide a catalyst for storm coverage
across the east.

The weekend is now looking more and more dry with warmer
temperatures. This is especially so across western/central areas. The
models have been hinting at a cut off low over southern
Calif/northern Baja for awhile but they like to jump around on the
position.

The above mentioned low is expected to usher higher moisture
levels northward and over the state as next week progresses. How
much is still a big question. Expect the low position to bounce
around a bit. ECMWF maintains more tropical influence from a
system moving northward along the coastline. The GFS is much less
bullish in the northward moving tropical system.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper low near Yellowstone NP will continue to the east northeast
today and tonight, while the broad southward-extending trough
fills as it comes across the central Rockies, scraping north NM.
As a result the flow aloft will have more of a westerly component,
dragging some drier air into west NM. While low lvl moisture is a
bit less across much of central NM either side of the Sandias and
Manzanos computer fcst models, espec the NAM still indicated some
spotty showers and storms developing across or just west of the
Rio Grande Valley. There is some potential that less will develop
than models indicate, but what does develop may be bordering on
dry or at least have pretty small wetting footprints. Farther west
very few or no storms are expected today through Sat and perhaps
even Sun, though the Gila region may wet up a little Sat or Sun.
The eastern plains and west to the east slopes of the central mtn
chain will still have a good chance of showers and storms today and
Fri, a few of which may again be quite strong to severe, plus any
storm will have heavy rain potential. A back door cold front
pushing south and west across the east half of the state Fri will
help to fire additional storms in the east. Aftn temps will be
higher for most areas Thu and Fri, except a modest cooldown of just
a few degrees in the far northeast Fri. RH values will lower a
little each day, except some modest rises behind the back door
front. No ventilation concerns with mostly good to excellent
values, the except will be Sun and Mon when most locales should see
at least one category reduction.

Yet another west coast trough aloft will drop down over or just
west of the northern Baja CA area over the weekend. It is depicted
by most fcst models to drift even a little farther offshore Sun and
Mon, then weaken a bit as it heads toward the sw U.S. in the Tue to
Tues night period, though this timing could be a bit fast. With the
low so far west of the state over the weekend into Mon, high
pressure ridge aloft will build over the state which will limit
wetting rains across the state, espec. west then north NM. Moisture
from the advancing closed low turned trough should reach NM in the
Tue to Wed period with a potentially significant spike in showers
and storms for a good portion, if not all, of the fcst area. ECMWF
model is still a little slower than the GFS model with this
scenario. High temps will be mostly at or below normal Sat then
near to above normal from Sunday on.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
609 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ501>540-161200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
609 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT BUT
CANT RULE OUT A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SEVERE STORMS.

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
736 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 AM     HAIL             9 SSE FORT SUMNER       34.36N 104.18W
09/14/2016  M1.00 INCH       DE BACA            NM   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1601391

CML

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1124 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ523-533-151800-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
1124 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GUADALUPE AND EAST
CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL NOON MDT...

AT 1124 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTH OF VAUGHN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VAUGHN.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 285 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 187 AND 204.

&&

LAT...LON 3440 10489 3434 10533 3453 10540 3473 10500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1724Z 244DEG 33KT 3445 10526

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1212 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

NMZ522-523-151845-
ESTANCIA VALLEY-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-
1212 PM MDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTY
UNTIL 1245 PM MDT...

AT 1212 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES EAST OF ESTANCIA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
TORRANCE COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR YOUR PREFERRED
MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 10593 3487 10596 3496 10565 3470 10558
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 259DEG 12KT 3480 10586

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