Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1156 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STALLED FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...
WHICH HAS BEEN REINFORCED AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BY RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW.
AIR-MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES. ALL
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH FLOODING A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. INCREASED
QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3
INCHES LIKELY. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS
THIS AREA...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASES THE FURTHER EAST YOU
GO. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...EARLY EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ELEVATED.
	ONSET...PRIMARILY LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SPREAD
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR
BOTH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW QUICK ONSET
OF FLOODING WITH ANY AREA OF HEAVY RAIN.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM SUFFICIENTLY.  A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1123 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OKZ072-074-076-200500-
HASKELL OK-LE FLORE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
1123 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL AND NORTHWESTERN LE FLORE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN SEQUOYAH

AT 1124 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER STIGLER...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...MCCURTAIN...STIGLER...LEQUIRE...LEWISVILLE...KINTA...
KEOTA...KANIMA AND TAMAHA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3509 9529 3527 9523 3531 9520 3531 9517
      3534 9518 3535 9517 3535 9514 3537 9516
      3538 9514 3537 9512 3543 9508 3538 9480
      3506 9494
TIME...MOT...LOC 0424Z 253DEG 31KT 3525 9508

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