Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Tulsa, OK

884 
WGUS74 KTSA 200741
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
241 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

OKC061-077-091-101-121-135-200930-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0038.000000T0000Z-150520T0930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HASKELL OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
LATIMER OK-
241 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATIMER...WESTERN
SEQUOYAH...PITTSBURG...SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE...MCINTOSH AND HASKELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 239 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...BUT 
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL 
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. 2 
TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 
2 INCHES POSSIBLE. EARLIER REPORTS INDICATED FLOODED ROADWAYS ACROSS 
PARTS OF SEQUOYAH COUNTY NEAR VIAN AND SALLISAW.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
EUFAULA...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...ALDERSON...ARROWHEAD
STATE PARK...ASHLAND...BLANCO...BLOCKER...BRIARTOWN...CANADIAN...
CHECOTAH...CROWDER...DAMON...ENTERPRISE...GORE...HANNA...
HARTSHORNE...HAYWOOD...HIGGINS...INDIANOLA...KEOTA...KINTA...KIOWA...
KREBS...LAKE EUFAULA STATE PARK...LEQUIRE...MCALESTER REGIONAL
AIRPORT...MCCURTAIN AND PORUM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO
UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY
MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 9589 3468 9610 3505 9610 3516 9599
      3535 9598 3564 9490 3564 9485 3524 9482
      3523 9492 3498 9494 3493 9504 3487 9502
      3486 9506 3469 9509 3470 9550 3463 9552
      3461 9589

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
900 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STALLED FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...
WHICH HAS BEEN REINFORCED AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BY RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW.
AIR-MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES. ALL
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH FLOODING A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. INCREASED
QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3
INCHES LIKELY. A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS
THIS AREA...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASES THE FURTHER EAST YOU
GO. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...EARLY EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ELEVATED.
	ONSET...PRIMARILY LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SPREAD
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR
BOTH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW QUICK ONSET
OF FLOODING WITH ANY AREA OF HEAVY RAIN.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM SUFFICIENTLY.  A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OKZ060-066-067-070-192345-
MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
621 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN OKMULGEE...SOUTHEASTERN TULSA AND WESTERN WAGONER

AT 620 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER STONEBLUFF...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...LEONARD...STONEBLUFF...REDBIRD...COWETA...ONETA
AND HASKELL.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3615 9569 3602 9546 3576 9571 3586 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 213DEG 16KT 3588 9574