River Flood Warning 124, NWS Tulsa, OK

853 
WGUS84 KTSA 262036
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
236 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
  Bird Creek near Sperry affecting Osage and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Jenks affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC113-143-270436-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0123.151227T2000Z-151230T0828Z/
/SPEO2.2.ER.151227T2000Z.151228T1800Z.151230T0228Z.NO/
236 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...Flood Warning extended until late Tuesday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Sperry.
* from Sunday afternoon to late Tuesday night, or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  2:00 PM Saturday, the stage was  2.15 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Sperry is expected to rise above 
  flood stage early Sunday afternoon and continue to rise to near 
  27.0 feet by early Monday afternoon. The river is expected to fall 
  below flood stage Tuesday evening.The river may crest higher or 
  lower depending on where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. 
  Continue to monitor later updates to this forecast.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet, extensive flooding occurs. Lower urban areas 
  in east Skiatook begin to flood. Highway 20 east of Skiatook is 
  closed. Some roads between Turley and north Tulsa may be blocked.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9605 3620 9598 3620 9590 3640 9593

$$

OKC143-270435-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0124.151227T1653Z-151230T1624Z/
/OWSO2.2.ER.151227T1653Z.151228T1800Z.151230T1024Z.NO/
236 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* from Sunday morning to Wednesday morning, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  2:00 PM Saturday, the stage was  5.04 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo is expected to rise 
  above flood stage late Sunday morning and continue to rise to near 
  23.9 feet by early Monday afternoon. The river is expected to fall 
  below flood stage early Wednesday morning.The river may crest higher
  or lower depending on where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. 
  Continue to monitor later updates to this forecast.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, serious overflows along Bird Creek reach into
  suburban areas south of Owasso. Mingo Road and several roads 
  southwest of Owasso and in the Mohawk Park area are closed. Flood 
  waters will threaten the Oxley Nature Center. This is an extremely 
  dangerous and life threatening situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

OKC037-270435-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0121.151227T0545Z-151229T1144Z/
/SPCO2.1.ER.151227T0545Z.151228T0600Z.151229T0544Z.NO/
236 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* from this evening to late Monday night, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 24.5 
  feet Monday before dawn. The river may crest higher or lower depending on
  where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor 
  later updates to this forecast.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet, moderate flooding affects pasturelands and 
  oil fields between Sapulpa and the Tulsa County line. Barns and 
  other outbuildings experience minor flooding.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

OKC143-270435-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0122.151228T1200Z-151229T0000Z/
/JNKO2.1.ER.151228T1200Z.151228T1200Z.151228T1800Z.NO/
236 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Jenks.
* from Monday morning to Monday evening, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  8:33 AM Saturday, the stage was  1.39 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Jenks is expected to rise to near
  flood stage Monday morning.The river may crest higher or lower depending on
  where exactly the heaviest rainfall occurs. Continue to monitor 
  later updates to this forecast.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, minor agricultral flooding occurs, primarily 
  west of Jenks.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3606 9607 3597 9607 3597 9591 3606 9591

$$

445 
WGUS84 KTSA 270241
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
841 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek at Avant affecting Osage County. 
  
  Bird Creek near Sperry affecting Osage and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC113-271041-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0127.151228T0600Z-151229T0126Z/
/AVTO2.1.ER.151228T0600Z.151228T1200Z.151228T1926Z.NO/
841 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Monday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek at Avant.
* from late Sunday night to Monday evening, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  8:30 PM Saturday, the stage was  7.29 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek at Avant is expected to rise above flood 
  stage Monday before dawn  and continue to rise to near 18.8 feet by
  Monday morning. The river is expected to fall below flood stage 
  early Monday afternoon.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, minor flooding of farmlands occurs along the 
  floodplain of Bird Creek downtream from Avant.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3653 9621 3635 9601 3642 9592 3659 9608

$$

OKC113-143-271041-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0123.151227T1411Z-151230T1245Z/
/SPEO2.2.ER.151227T1411Z.151228T1800Z.151230T0645Z.NO/
841 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Sperry.
* from Sunday morning to Wednesday morning, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  8:00 PM Saturday, the stage was  5.47 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Sperry is expected to rise above 
  flood stage Sunday morning and continue to rise to near 27.5 feet 
  by early Monday afternoon. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage Wednesday before dawn .
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, extensive flooding occurs between Skiatook to
  north Tulsa. Highway 20 east of Skiatook is impassable. Lower urban
  areas in east Skiatook are flooded. Some streets between Turley and
  north Tulsa are blocked.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9605 3620 9598 3620 9590 3640 9593

$$

OKC143-271041-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0124.151227T1516Z-151230T2033Z/
/OWSO2.2.ER.151227T1516Z.151228T1200Z.151230T1433Z.NO/
841 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* from Sunday morning to Wednesday afternoon, or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At  8:00 PM Saturday, the stage was  7.63 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo is expected to rise 
  above flood stage late Sunday morning and continue to rise to near 
  23.8 feet by Monday morning. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, serious overflows along Bird Creek reach into
  suburban areas south of Owasso. Mingo Road and several roads 
  southwest of Owasso and in the Mohawk Park area are closed. Flood 
  waters will threaten the Oxley Nature Center. This is an extremely 
  dangerous and life threatening situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

741 
WGUS84 KTSA 270728
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
128 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek at Avant affecting Osage County. 
  
  Bird Creek near Sperry affecting Osage and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC113-271528-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0127.151228T0936Z-151229T0000Z/
/AVTO2.1.ER.151228T0936Z.151228T1200Z.151228T1800Z.NO/
128 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek at Avant.
* from late tonight to Monday evening, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 12:30 AM Sunday, the stage was  9.66 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek at Avant is expected to rise above flood 
  stage early Monday morning and continue to rise to near 18.0 feet 
  by Monday morning. The river is expected to fall below flood stage 
  early Monday afternoon.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, minor flooding of farmlands occurs along the 
  floodplain of Bird Creek downtream from Avant.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3653 9621 3635 9601 3642 9592 3659 9608

$$

OKC113-143-271528-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0123.151227T0930Z-151230T0942Z/
/SPEO2.2.ER.151227T0930Z.151228T1200Z.151230T0342Z.NO/
128 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Sperry.
* until late Tuesday night, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:00 AM Sunday, the stage was 18.70 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Sperry is expected to rise above 
  flood stage early this morning and continue to rise to near 27.6 
  feet by Monday morning. The river is expected to fall below flood 
  stage late Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, extensive flooding occurs between Skiatook to
  north Tulsa. Highway 20 east of Skiatook is impassable. Lower urban
  areas in east Skiatook are flooded. Some streets between Turley and
  north Tulsa are blocked.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9605 3620 9598 3620 9590 3640 9593

$$

OKC143-271528-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0124.151227T1246Z-151230T1630Z/
/OWSO2.2.ER.151227T1246Z.151228T0600Z.151230T1030Z.NO/
128 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* from this morning to Wednesday morning, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 12:00 AM Sunday, the stage was 13.88 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo is expected to rise 
  above flood stage this morning and continue to rise to near 23.6 
  feet by Monday before dawn. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage early Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, serious overflows along Bird Creek reach into
  suburban areas south of Owasso. Mingo Road and several roads 
  southwest of Owasso and in the Mohawk Park area are closed. Flood 
  waters will threaten the Oxley Nature Center. This is an extremely 
  dangerous and potentially life threatening situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

547 
WGUS44 KTSA 271414
FLWTSA
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
814 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015



...Forecast flooding changed from Moderate to Major severity for the 
following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC143-272214-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0124.000000T0000Z-151230T1919Z/
/OWSO2.3.ER.151227T0850Z.151228T1200Z.151230T1319Z.NO/
814 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate to Major severity...
...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
 
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo
* until Wednesday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:00 AM Sunday, the stage was 20.57 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo will continue rising to
  near 25.1 feet Monday morning. The river will fall below flood 
  stage Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet, severe flooding occurs in suburban areas 
  between Owasso and northeast Tulsa. Mingo Road is closed. The Oxley
  Nature Center building at Mohawk Park is flooded. Some suburban 
  homes may be isolated. This is an extremely dangerous and life 
  threatening situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

752 
WGUS84 KTSA 272054
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
254 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek at Avant affecting Osage County. 
  
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek near Sperry affecting Osage and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC113-272124-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0127.000000T0000Z-151229T0105Z/
/AVTO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
254 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Bird Creek at Avant.
* At  2:30 PM Sunday, the stage was  8.79 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek at Avant will crest below flood stage at 
  14.5 feet Monday morning.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3653 9621 3635 9601 3642 9592 3659 9608

$$

OKC113-143-280453-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-151229T1137Z/
/SPEO2.2.ER.151227T0830Z.151228T0600Z.151229T0537Z.NO/
254 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Sperry.
* until late Monday night, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:00 PM Sunday, the stage was 26.30 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Sperry will continue rising to near 
  27.7 feet Monday before dawn. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage late Monday evening.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, extensive flooding occurs between Skiatook to
  north Tulsa. Highway 20 east of Skiatook is impassable. Lower urban
  areas in east Skiatook are flooded. Some streets between Turley and
  north Tulsa are blocked.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9605 3620 9598 3620 9590 3640 9593

$$

OKC143-280453-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0124.000000T0000Z-151229T1932Z/
/OWSO2.3.ER.151227T0850Z.151228T1200Z.151229T1332Z.NO/
254 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
 
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* until Tuesday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:00 PM Sunday, the stage was 21.57 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo will continue rising to
  near 24.0 feet Monday morning. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, serious overflows along Bird Creek reach into
  suburban areas south of Owasso. Mingo Road and several roads 
  southwest of Owasso and in the Mohawk Park area are closed. Flood 
  waters will threaten the Oxley Nature Center. This is an extremely 
  dangerous and life threatening situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

691 
WGUS84 KTSA 280113
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
713 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek near Sperry affecting Osage and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC113-143-280913-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-151230T0209Z/
/SPEO2.2.ER.151227T0830Z.151228T0600Z.151229T2009Z.NO/
713 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Sperry.
* until Tuesday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:00 PM Sunday, the stage was 26.78 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Sperry will continue rising to near 
  26.9 feet Monday before dawn. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage early Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet, extensive flooding occurs. Lower urban areas 
  in east Skiatook begin to flood. Highway 20 east of Skiatook is 
  closed. Some roads between Turley and north Tulsa may be blocked.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9605 3620 9598 3620 9590 3640 9593

$$

OKC143-280913-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0124.000000T0000Z-151230T0636Z/
/OWSO2.2.ER.151227T0850Z.151228T0600Z.151230T0036Z.NO/
713 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...Flood Warning extended until late Tuesday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* until late Tuesday night, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  6:00 PM Sunday, the stage was 22.51 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo will continue rising to
  near 22.6 feet Monday before dawn. The river is expected to fall 
  below flood stage Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet, extensive flooding occurs in Mohawk Park with
  access roads covered by high water. Mingo Road between 56th Street 
  North and 76th Street North are closed due to high water. Flood 
  waters may threaten the Oxley Nature Center.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

905 
WGUS84 KTSA 280739
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
  Bird Creek near Sperry affecting Osage and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
  Caney River near Ramona affecting Washington County. 
  
  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Illinois River near Watts affecting Adair County. 
  
  Illinois River near Tahlequah affecting Cherokee County. 
  
  Flint Creek near Kansas affecting Cherokee and Delaware Counties. 
  
  Baron Fork River at Eldon affecting Cherokee County. 
  
  Arkansas River near Muskogee affecting Muskogee County. 
  
OKC001-281539-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0107.000000T0000Z-151230T0000Z/
/WTTO2.3.ER.151227T0609Z.151228T1200Z.151229T1800Z.NR/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
 
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Illinois River near Watts.
* until Tuesday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:00 AM Monday, the stage was 28.52 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Illinois River near Watts will continue rising to 
  near 29.0 feet this morning. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage early Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 29.0 feet, disastrous flooding occurs from the Arkansas 
  border to Chewey Bridge. Many permanent campgrounds and cabins are 
  overtopped, particularly in the Fidlers Bend area. River Valley 
  Raceway is inundated by several feet, with water approaching the 
  roof of the permanent building. This exceeds the flood of record of
  28.6 feet that occurred April 26, 2011. This is an extremely 
  dangerous and life threatening situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3619 9478 3611 9478 3607 9453 3615 9453

$$

OKC021-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0108.000000T0000Z-151231T0538Z/
/TALO2.3.ER.151227T0551Z.151229T0600Z.151230T2338Z.NR/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
 
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Illinois River near Tahlequah.
* until Wednesday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:00 AM Monday, the stage was 24.35 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Illinois River near Tahlequah will continue rising 
  to near 29.0 feet Tuesday before dawn. The river is expected to 
  fall below flood stage Wednesday afternoon.
* Impact...Devastating flooding occurs along the Illinois River from 
  Chewey Bridge to the headwaters of Lake Tenkiller. State Highway 10 
  is closed northeast of its intersection with Highway 51. Many cabin 
  parks are severely flooded or are totally isolated for a long time. 
  This is a dangerous and life-threatening situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3604 9498 3573 9498 3573 9487 3617 9472 3617 9485

$$

OKC021-041-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0109.000000T0000Z-151229T0053Z/
/KNSO2.3.ER.151227T0445Z.151228T0430Z.151228T1853Z.NO/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
 
...Flood Warning extended until this evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Flint Creek near Kansas.
* until this evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:30 AM Monday, the stage was 15.93 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Flint Creek near Kansas will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by this afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, severe flooding occurs from Bidlers Bend to 
  Chewey Bridge. Farmland and permanent campgrounds are affected. 
  Several cabins in the Fidlers Bend area are flooded or isolated for
  prolonged periods. This is an extremely dangerous and life 
  threatening situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3619 9483 3607 9482 3620 9456 3630 9461

$$

OKC021-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0110.000000T0000Z-151229T0515Z/
/ELDO2.3.ER.151227T1216Z.151228T0330Z.151228T2315Z.NO/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...This is a dangerous and life threatening situation...
 
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Baron Fork River at Eldon.
* until this evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:30 AM Monday, the stage was 24.39 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Baron Fork River at Eldon will continue rising to 
  near 25.0 feet this morning. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage late this afternoon.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, damaging flooding occurs. Significant areas 
  of the Camp Egan campgrounds are flooded, including cabins. This is
  an extremely dangerous and life threatening situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3578 9493 3578 9481 3594 9477 3594 9490

$$

OKC101-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0120.000000T0000Z-151229T1545Z/
/MKGO2.2.ER.151227T1457Z.151228T1200Z.151229T0945Z.NO/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River near Muskogee.
* until Tuesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:00 AM Monday, the stage was 30.95 feet.
* Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Arkansas River near Muskogee will continue rising to
  near 32.0 feet this morning. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, areas on the grounds of the OG&E power plant 
  are flooded. Moderate agricultural flooding occurs.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3583 9537 3559 9532 3547 9515 3552 9507 3583 9520

$$

OKC037-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151230T0936Z/
/SPCO2.2.ER.151227T0956Z.151227T2341Z.151230T0336Z.NO/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...Flood Warning extended until late Tuesday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* until late Tuesday night, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:34 AM Monday, the stage was 28.00 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by late Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, severe flooding affects pasturelands, oil 
  fields, and county roads between Sapulpa and Jenks. Barns and oil 
  field storage tanks may be flooded. Suburban homes will have water 
  in yards.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

OKC113-143-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-151229T0932Z/
/SPEO2.2.ER.151227T0830Z.151228T0400Z.151229T0332Z.NO/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Sperry.
* until late tonight, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:00 AM Monday, the stage was 26.87 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Sperry will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by tonight.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet, extensive flooding occurs. Lower urban areas 
  in east Skiatook begin to flood. Highway 20 east of Skiatook is 
  closed. Some roads between Turley and north Tulsa may be blocked.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9605 3620 9598 3620 9590 3640 9593

$$

OKC143-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0124.000000T0000Z-151229T1600Z/
/OWSO2.2.ER.151227T0850Z.151228T1200Z.151229T1000Z.NO/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* until Tuesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:00 AM Monday, the stage was 22.91 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo will continue rising to
  near 23.7 feet this morning. The river is expected to fall below 
  flood stage early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, serious overflows along Bird Creek reach into
  suburban areas south of Owasso. Mingo Road and several roads 
  southwest of Owasso and in the Mohawk Park area are closed. Flood 
  waters will threaten the Oxley Nature Center. This is a dangerous 
  situation.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

OKC147-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0125.000000T0000Z-151229T1715Z/
/RAMO2.1.ER.151227T1518Z.151228T1200Z.151229T1115Z.NO/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Ramona.
* until Tuesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:00 AM Monday, the stage was 27.49 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Ramona will continue rising to near
  27.6 feet this morning. The river is expected to fall below flood 
  stage early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs from 
  Ochelata to the northeastern tip of Tulsa County. Some rural roads 
  are impassable including the road between Ramona and Talala.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3664 9593 3647 9593 3637 9584 3637 9576 3664 9580

$$

OKC131-143-281538-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0126.000000T0000Z-151230T1914Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.151227T0746Z.151229T0000Z.151230T1314Z.NO/
139 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Collinsville.
* until Wednesday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:30 AM Monday, the stage was 31.48 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will continue rising 
  to near 32.0 feet this evening. The river is expected to fall below
  flood stage Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 32.0 feet, considerable farmland is flooded. County 
  roads near the river become impassable.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3635 9588 3630 9570 3636 9564 3643 9580

$$

Lacy

792 
WGUS84 KTSA 281353
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
753 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek near Sperry affecting Osage and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC113-143-282153-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-151229T0600Z/
/SPEO2.2.ER.151227T0830Z.151228T0400Z.151229T0000Z.NO/
753 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Sperry.
* until late tonight, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:00 AM Monday, the stage was 26.31 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Sperry will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by this evening.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, moderate flooding of rural lands occurs from 
  Skiatook to Turley. Highway 20 east of Skiatook is impassable. Some
  minor flooding of streets in east Skiatook may occur.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9605 3620 9598 3620 9590 3640 9593

$$

OKC143-282152-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0124.000000T0000Z-151229T1340Z/
/OWSO2.2.ER.151227T0850Z.151228T0600Z.151229T0740Z.NO/
753 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* until Tuesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:00 AM Monday, the stage was 23.21 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo will continue falling 
  to below flood stage by Tuesday before dawn.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet, extensive flooding occurs in Mohawk Park with
  access roads covered by high water. Mingo Road between 56th Street 
  North and 76th Street North are closed due to high water. Flood 
  waters may threaten the Oxley Nature Center.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

283 
WGUS84 KTSA 281933
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
133 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek near Sperry affecting Osage and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
  Caney River near Ramona affecting Washington County. 
  
  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 
  
OKC113-143-290333-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-151229T0658Z/
/SPEO2.2.ER.151227T0830Z.151228T0400Z.151229T0058Z.NO/
133 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...Flood Warning extended until late tonight...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Sperry.
* until late tonight, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:00 PM Monday, the stage was 25.11 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Sperry will continue falling to 
  below flood stage this evening.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet, moderate flooding of rural lands occurs from 
  Skiatook to Turley. Highway 20 east of Skiatook is impassable. Some
  minor flooding of streets in east Skiatook may occur. At 24.0 feet,
  moderate flooding occurs in rural areas from Skiatook to Turley.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9605 3620 9598 3620 9590 3640 9593

$$

OKC143-290332-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0124.000000T0000Z-151229T1518Z/
/OWSO2.2.ER.151227T0850Z.151228T1430Z.151229T0918Z.NO/
133 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* until Tuesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:00 PM Monday, the stage was 23.15 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo crested this morning
  and will continue falling to below flood stage by early Tuesday
  morning.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet, extensive flooding occurs in Mohawk Park with
  access roads covered by high water. Mingo Road between 56th Street 
  North and 76th Street North are closed due to high water. Flood 
  waters may threaten the Oxley Nature Center.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

OKC147-290332-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0125.000000T0000Z-151230T0030Z/
/RAMO2.1.ER.151227T1518Z.151228T1830Z.151229T1830Z.NO/
133 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Ramona.
* until Tuesday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:00 PM Monday, the stage was 27.83 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring but the river is near its crest.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Ramona will remain nearly steady
  through late tonight and then fall to below flood stage by early
  Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, moderate agricultural flooding occurs from 
  Ochelata to the northeastern tip of Tulsa County. Some rural roads 
  are impassable including the road between Ramona and Talala.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3664 9593 3647 9593 3637 9584 3637 9576 3664 9580

$$

OKC131-143-290332-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0126.000000T0000Z-151230T2340Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.151227T0746Z.151229T0000Z.151230T1740Z.NO/
133 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Collinsville.
* until Wednesday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:30 PM Monday, the stage was 31.49 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will continue rising 
  to near 31.6 feet this evening. The river is expected to fall below
  flood stage late Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet, widespread moderate flooding occurs. Rural
  roads near the Caney River become impassable. At 32.0 feet, considerable 
  farmland is flooded. 
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3635 9588 3630 9570 3636 9564 3643 9580

$$

279 
WGUS84 KTSA 290059
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
659 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek near Sperry affecting Osage and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC113-143-290859-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0123.000000T0000Z-151229T1114Z/
/SPEO2.2.ER.151227T0830Z.151228T0400Z.151229T0514Z.NO/
659 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...Flood Warning extended until late tonight...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Sperry.
* until late tonight, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  6:00 PM Monday, the stage was 23.79 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Sperry will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by tonight.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, moderate flooding occurs in rural areas from 
  Skiatook to Turley.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9605 3620 9598 3620 9590 3640 9593

$$

OKC143-290858-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0124.000000T0000Z-151230T0036Z/
/OWSO2.2.ER.151227T0850Z.151228T2330Z.151229T1836Z.NO/
659 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* until Tuesday evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  6:00 PM Monday, the stage was 23.07 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo will continue falling 
  to below flood stage by early Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet, extensive flooding occurs in Mohawk Park with
  access roads covered by high water. Mingo Road between 56th Street 
  North and 76th Street North are closed due to high water. Flood 
  waters may threaten the Oxley Nature Center.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

989 
WGUS84 KTSA 290836
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
236 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC143-291636-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0124.000000T0000Z-151229T2336Z/
/OWSO2.2.ER.151227T0850Z.151228T2330Z.151229T1736Z.NO/
236 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* until this afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:00 AM Tuesday, the stage was 22.28 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo will continue falling 
  to below flood stage by late this morning.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet, extensive flooding of Mohawk Park occurs with
  access roads impassable. Mingo Road between 56th Street North and 
  76th Street North are covered by high water.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

437 
WGUS84 KTSA 291254
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
654 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC143-292054-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0124.000000T0000Z-151230T0016Z/
/OWSO2.2.ER.151227T0850Z.151228T2330Z.151229T1816Z.NO/
654 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* until this evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  6:00 AM Tuesday, the stage was 20.83 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo will continue falling 
  to below flood stage by this afternoon.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, widespread flooding occurs in Mohawk Park 
  with access roads flooded near the Oxley Nature Center. Mingo Road 
  near 66th Street may be flooded. 56th Street North near Mingo Road 
  becomes impassable.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

920 
WGUS84 KTSA 291916
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
116 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties. 

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
OKC037-300316-
/O.CON.KTSA.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-151230T1200Z/
/SPCO2.2.ER.151227T0956Z.151227T2341Z.151230T0600Z.NO/
116 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* until Wednesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1 PM Tuesday, the stage was estimated at 22.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by Wednesday before dawn.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet, minor flooding of pasturelands and oil 
  fields occurs..
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3600 9615 3592 9614 3599 9598 3606 9599

$$

OKC131-143-300315-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0126.000000T0000Z-151230T1731Z/
/CVLO2.2.ER.151227T0746Z.151229T0500Z.151230T1131Z.NO/
116 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Caney River near Collinsville.
* until Wednesday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:30 PM Tuesday, the stage was 31.35 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring but the river is falling.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville will continue falling 
  to below flood stage by early Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet, widespread moderate flooding occurs. Rural 
  roads near the Caney River become impassable.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3635 9588 3630 9570 3636 9564 3643 9580

$$

OKC143-291946-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0124.000000T0000Z-151230T0016Z/
/OWSO2.2.ER.151227T0850Z.151228T2330Z.151229T1624Z.NO/
116 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* At 12:00 PM Tuesday, the stage was 16.51 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage late this morning.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo will continue falling 
  and remain below flood stage.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9594 3618 9594 3618 9570 3627 9570

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
552 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The 12z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread and persistent IFR or below cigs forecast thru the TAF
period in a saturated boundary layer. Sct storms will affect the
TAF sites as well. Cold front will bring a wind shift by this
evening across E OK and NW AR...with gusts abv 30 kts at the NE OK
sites.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Per latest water vapor imagery...a longwave trof continued to dig
southeastward through the desert Southwest United States early
this morning. Ahead of this system...fast moving south-
southwesterly upper level flow continued to transport ample
amounts of moisture into the Southern Plains...fueling the
atmosphere for the expected widespread rainfall across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Showers along with a few
thunderstorms have already begun to develop over the CWA as a warm
front tracts northward through the Southern Plains.

Rain showers along with thunderstorm chances will continue to
spread in coverage across the CWA this morning...becoming
widespread this afternoon as a strong cold front moves into the
region from the west. Ahead of this frontal boundary...increasing
instability...above seasonal average moisture...deep layer shear
and steep lapse rates will create the potential for severe
thunderstorms with the potential for large hail...damaging winds
and also a tornado threat. The greater severe potential looks to
be this afternoon through this evening across Southeast Oklahoma
into East Central Oklahoma and also Western Arkansas. Along with
the severe potential...widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches with locally higher amounts are forecast through tonight
over much of the CWA. This will allow for flash flooding and also
significant river flooding to develop across the region. A flash
flood watch remains in effect for all but the far northwest corner
of the CWA through Sunday night.

The cold front is expected to push into Eastern Oklahoma late this
afternoon and could potentially get hung up over Southeast
Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas overnight tonight. With the front
holding over the region...this will allow for thunderstorm
potential to remain over Southeast Oklahoma into Western Arkansas
into Sunday. Behind the front...widespread rain showers are
forecast to remain over the CWA through Sunday night as upper
level southerly flow continues to pump unseasonably moist air
over the region. Additional rainfall amounts Sunday again in the 3
to 5+ inch range will be possible over much of Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas. These rains on top of saturated soils by
Sunday will enhance runoff potential and increase dangerous
flooding conditions for the CWA. Some mainstem rivers currently
look to respond with forecasts of moderate to major flooding. A
few locations could even potentially reach near flood of record.

Also behind the front...strong gusty northerly winds and much
cooler temperatures are forecast. Wind gusts of 25 to near 40 mph
will be possible over parts of Eastern Oklahoma. Temperature
profiles tonight into Sunday continue to suggest that surface
temperatures remain above freezing throughout the CWA...thus
keeping any winter potential to the west/northwest through Sunday
afternoon. Temps of mid 30s to upper 40s are forecast behind the
front Sunday. Overnight sunday night into Monday morning...as the
upper low approaches and the frontal boundary gets a push off to
the east...some colder air could potential reach parts
Osage/Pawnee counties in Northeast Oklahoma. Thus...will keep a
mention of a wintry mix of precip...transitioning to light snow
Sunday night into Monday for these locations. With some
uncertainty with the exact track of the upper low...a shift east
or west could greatly affect locations for wintry weather...will
keep any accumulations light at this time for Western Osage
county.

Latest model solutions indicate the upper low lifting through
Eastern Oklahoma Monday and race northeast into the Midwest by
Monday evening. As the low lifts into the region...depending on
the exact track the low takes could allow for a forecast dry slot
to move over parts of the region...shutting off the water works of
rainfall Monday afternoon. Overall the precip should taper off
from south to north by Monday evening.

In the extended forecast for the upcoming week...a quick moving
wave looks to push across the Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday
which could bring a small chance for light snow/wintry mix to the
CWA. A lack of moisture over the region should keep any potential
accumulations light. In the wake of this system...temperatures
look to remain near/below the seasonal average for the last week
of the year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  38  42  36 / 100 100 100 100
FSM   71  57  59  43 / 100 100 100 100
MLC   72  45  48  38 / 100 100 100 100
BVO   61  36  38  35 / 100 100 100 100
FYV   67  46  49  42 / 100 100 100 100
BYV   67  45  47  41 / 100 100 100 100
MKO   68  44  47  39 / 100 100 100 100
MIO   64  37  41  37 / 100 100 100 100
F10   67  41  44  37 / 100 100  90 100
HHW   74  58  63  39 /  90 100 100 100

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for OKZ049-053-
     055>058-060>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271200-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
548 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
ELEVATED SEVERE RISK THIS WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MIDDAY.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
	ONSET...MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
	ONSET...MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 6 PM.

DISCUSSION...

A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
RIVER FLOODING EVENT IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD 4 TO 11
INCH RAINS ARE FORECAST...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH WILL BE RUNOFF
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR THIS IS OCCURRING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
STORM AND COLD FRONT WILL ACT TO LIFT AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST
AIRMASS TO BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

AN ELEVATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK EXISTS MAINLY FROM
THE MIDDAY HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A
LIMITED TORNADO RISK EXISTS AS WELL. THE AREA AT GREATEST RISK
WILL BE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN AN
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BRING GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND
			POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY...AS THE THUNDER
CHANCES WANE WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...TEMPS WILL LIKELY GET COLD ENOUGH OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES TO ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT SOME LIGHT ICING AND
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THERE. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES TO
THIS FORECAST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...LIKELY LESS THAN AN
INCH.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND FIRST RESPONDERS NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF THE
FLOOD THREAT THIS WEEKEND. MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL
FLOOD...SOME MAJOR OR EVEN RECORD...AND SOME WATER RESCUES MAY BE
REQUIRED. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

LACY